Wheeling and Dealing – Solving the Twins Roster Crunch
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How did we get here?
The 2011-2014 swoon led to a lot of high draft picks . And the losses forced the Twins to look into the future and move veterans like Span and Revere for prospects. While it is ideal for a rebuilding team to time when all their prospects reach the big show, it has worked out a little too nice for the Twins. We find ourselves with too many bodies than reps. And those bodies are guys that by and large don’t need any more time in AAA.
The current situation:
Outfield – You have five guys going for three spots. Buxton is the second best prospect in the game. Sano was on pace for 36 HR last year and would have been getting MVP votes had he played all year. Rosario had an OPS in the .760’s last year while leading the league in OF assists. Arcia has shown the ability to be a productive MLB player at a young age. And Max Kepler is a top three prospect in one of the better systems in the league. These guys are all young and need to play every day. Arguably, Kepler could go back to AAA and Buxton might need a tweak if he doesn’t improve. But those would be short term fixes and wouldn’t likely buy a ton of time. I don't think you want Sano and Arcia in the same outfield, so I would think either Sano moves to DH or 3B or Arcia is the odd man out.
Infield – You have Mauer and Dozier entrenched at first and second. And even though we have a lot of bodies, Escobar is likely the only immediate answer at SS. And Plouffe has been one of our better players the last two years. At catcher, John Ryan Murphy is a guy we traded for Aaron Hicks. So the Twins believe in him and want to see him succeed. And same goes for Park at DH. He has shown promise thus far and has a four year deal.
Guys who are on the cusp
Starters - Berrios and Meyer are ripping up AAA. And Duffey is having a good year so far after a very strong debut last year. Outside of Berrios, these guys are not that young and need to get MLB reps.
Relievers – The big three I would argue are Chargois, Burdi, and Melotakis. But you have some other names that could also force the Twins to make some decisions, like Rogers and Reed.
Other position players – Jorge Polanco has put up pretty solid numbers the last few years.
How do the Twins solve this?
Trade Plouffe and move Sano back to 3B. This would be ideal, but it is unclear what the market for Plouffe looks like. In all fairness, it is also unclear whether the Twins feel that Sano could ever play 3B again. But this is a move that would definitely be a positive. Note: I would target relievers, promising prospects in A ball, and/or a catcher in all trades.
Trade Dozier – On the surface this doesn’t seem like it helps a ton. But you slide Polanco to 2B and at the same time, move a guy that suddenly has a few red flags (and is owed about $30M).
Trade Nolasco – He has always been tradeable, assuming the Twins pay his full salary to pitch somewhere else. My hope is that he continues to pitch well and maybe the amount of salary the other team will pick up gets down to a level Terry Ryan deems appropriate. To me this is a no-brainer.
Trade Milone – He is controlled for another two years and has a pretty decent track record, although his peripherals have never been great. So hopefully a market exists for Milone.
A large trade – Think of a two or three for one type trade involving some combo of Plouffe, Polanco, Arcia, Rosario, Gibson, and someone like Gonsalves for a clear upgrade like Sonny Gray or Alex Cobb. This is the type of move that I think the Twins should consider. Because the reality is of all the bodies we have right now, we have a ton of guys that are still prospects or unproven. Flipping a few of them for a talent upgrade that is close to a guarantee, while at the same time solving the number crunch seems like a win-win to me.
Move Plouffe to a super utility role – This is also something that should be considered. Plouffe is what he is at this point. He is a .720-.740 OPS guy who is probably past his prime. He is also making $7-8M a year and only controlled another year. He can play 3B, 1B, and I think would be fine in LF or RF if need be. So you move him around a bit. He plays every day against lefties and about half the time against righties (this would likely improve his overall numbers). It would also be very nice to have this caliber of guy around in the event of an injury as well.
This one is likely a long shot. But move Park to 3B and move Sano to DH (either trade Plouffe or moving him to a super utility role). Park has played 1B and the OF, so he should be able to take grounders as well as throw. But I have no read on whether this is possible. Just throwing it out there.
Lastly, cut the weakest link from the pen, move Milone or Nolasco to the pen and bring up Meyer/Berrios/Duffey.
The worst way forward in my opinion is not making any moves at all. This will stunt development of the very key players this franchise is counting on (by keeping them in AAA too long or by not playing everyday for the Twins).
Well, what say you? What is the best path forward for the Twins?
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