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The Twins Crossroads At Second


Ted Schwerzler

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When looking at the projected 25 man roster leaving Fort Myers for the Minnesota Twins, you would be hard pressed to find a player considered more of a lock than Brian Dozier. Minnesota gave Dozier a four-year, $20 million extension just a year ago, and he remains one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. What Dozier's situation does do is present a crossroads for the players behind him.

 

Although depth is something the Twins seemingly have throughout the organization, the focus behind Dozier no doubt has to be on Jorge Polanco.

 

The Twins commitment to Dozier is an interesting one. The extension was signed at a very reasonable $5 million on an average annual basis. The club bought out Dozier's arbitration years, but did not buy into any of his free agency eligibility. Set to become a free agent at age 32 in 2019, the Twins will have another decision to make at that point.

 

In the first season of his newly signed deal, Dozier rewarded the Twins by turning in his first All-Star performance. Garnering a handful of MVP votes as well, the Mississippi native turned in career high numbers in games played (157), hits (148), doubles (39), homers (28), runs batted in (77), and slugging percentage (.444). Following up his 4.7 fWAR season in 2014, Dozier gave the Twins another productive year compiling a 3.4 fWAR mark.

 

No matter how you look at it, the Twins are nowhere near a point of moving on from the late-peaking 28 year-old. That then turns the focus to Polanco.

 

One of the youngest ever to debut in a Twins uniform, Jorge Polanco first showed up in the major leagues during the 2014 season. At 20 years-old, his five games worth of exposure were a testament to just how real Minnesota believes his talent to be. Across the minor leagues, his bat has flashed major league potential, and it's in the season ahead that it should truly take center stage.

 

Polanco has been playing in the Twins organization since 2010 as a 16 year-old in the Dominican League. Across six minor league seasons, he's put together a career .288/.348/.404 slash line. Not a home run threat, his speed has played up in recent seasons stealing 17 or more bases each of the past two seasons. He's flashed gap power and should be a doubles threat, with the ability to stretch for the extra base. Tough to strike out, Polanco has never fanned more than 90 times in a season, and he taken walks about half as often as he's struck out. Putting it simply, Polanco's bat is ready.

 

Where things get problematic for the next step with Polanco is on the defensive side. A second basemen for 240 plus games in the Twins system, the only position he's played more has been shortstop (350 games). Minnesota no doubt would like Polanco to play the left side of the diamond for positioning purposes, but it has continued to be a square peg in a round hole type of fit. He has less than ideal arm strength, and has made 63 errors in 221 games over the past two seasons at the position.

 

Welcome to the conundrum facing the Twins. With his bat, Polanco has proven ready for the next step, but his positional inability has held him back. He'll likely see the bulk of his time in 2016 at Triple-A Rochester, but for an advanced hitter, Minnesota could see him regress or plateau as a lack of challenge is presented.

 

Looking at what other options Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor, and the Twins brain trust have, it can't be ignored that the trade front may provide the best avenue. What's unfortunate is that many organizations have a guy similar to a Jorge Polanco. He won't be the centerpiece in any deal with a significant return, but is more than a throw in when compiling a package to trade away. Considering the options Minnesota has, planning out the long term scope of Polanco with the projection of belief for Dozier is something that should be considered sooner rather than later.

 

With Eduardo Nunez still arbitration eligible a year from now, a super utility type fit for Polanco doesn't seem to be in the cards either. As Brian Dozier continues to hold down his role, and Polanco continues to fumble through the shortstop situation, options continue to become less visible. A nice player without a true fit, we're approaching a time to get creative.

 

No doubt a young team like the Twins is in a position to appreciate talent. Their is a line that has to be toed somewhere between hoarding it, and using it to your benefit however.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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Polanco will pretty much have to make the roster full-time as a utility guy in 2017, unless he can be a placesetter at short (depending on Escobar's season). He could push Dozier to a trade, if the Twins can compensate for Brian's bat in other ways and depending on who the shortstop of the future is with the Twins (is Gordon still two seasons away). The nice thing is that if Dozier, Escobar go down at all in 2016, Polanco will get more fulltime play, above and beyond his couple of at-bats from previous seasons, or I hope he does. The Twins need to put "the future" into the lineup when injuries happen, rather than the wisened old utility guy who may/may not contribute in the future.

 

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I'm just not sure we know what Escobar should be yet going forward, and I don't think Polanco is a backup plan there at all. He's tied more closely to Dozier, and with the Twins not buying out his FA years, that leaves questions there.

 

BD definitely has more trade value, but I wouldn't even come close to entertaining that kind of a movement.

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Still wonder at the possibility of Dozier at 3B with Polanco taking over 2B, as we briefly discussed the other day. Not ideal, to be sure, especially with Dozier's average arm strength, but as a now experienced ML veteran and a quality athlete, I think he could handle the fundamentals. I think it is at least a valid arguement/possibility.

 

But back to Polanco....the defensive conundrum confuses me. When he was signed we were told he was a legit SS (with average arm), and questionable hitting ability. However it happened, the concerns seem to have reversed themselves. But he is still young. As I have pointed out and documented in previous posts, a review of even the best SS's show high error totals at the milb level as well as early ML seasons. I would like more information on the source of Polanco's errors. Can he just not field? Does he have a scattershot arm? Or is this as simple and fixable as a young man needing to slow down and continue polishing basic fundamentals?

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I've been wrong year over year on many players, but this is clearly a huge year for Polanco.    If the team swims in mediocrity, I can see a scenario where BD is traded and JP becomes the regular at 2nd.   This makes sense on two fronts:

 

1) Return for Dozier is relatively high as a power-hitting middle infielder cost-controlled for a few more seasons (as noted, through age 32)

 

2) Jorge Polanco represents a skill set different from the lion's share of the present lineup.  We have multiple home-run, low-average guys (Sano, Park, Plouffe, Arcia, ABW,  Vargas, even Escobar and Rosario are double-digit homer candidates).  We have OBP without substantial power (Mauer, Kepler); we have guys who won't do either (catcher).  We have exactly one potential OBP/speed threat (Buxton).   Teams need speed in the lineup.  

 

I may be pushing things a bit, but I like Polanco in the 2-hole, behind Buxton and ahead of the mashers.  This team lacks serious table-setters with speed.    If Dozier can fetch a nice return, I don't see the trade-off between Dozier's future and Polanco's future being so great as to cast JP aside for nothing because the only spot he fits is already filled.

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