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2016 Twins offseason top 40 prospects: Summary and Meta Analysis


Thrylos

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Twins Video

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch

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I am trying something new this year. Instead of summarizing the top 40 Twins' prospects list, I am doing some actual analysis as well, which I believe might be telling for the system.

 

This is the last segment in this series. You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.

You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here, players 26-30 here, players 21-25 here, players 16-20 here, players 11-15 here, players 6-10 here, and players 1-5 here.

 

 

Here are the top 40 with position indicated and 2015 rank in parenthesis, along with Estimated Time of Arrival :

 

1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016

2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017

3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016

4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018

5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019

6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016

7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+

8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020

9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019

10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017

11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016

12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016

13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017

14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017

15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019

16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017

17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019

18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017

19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016

20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018

21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018

22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020

23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017

24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019

25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017

26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020

27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020

28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+

29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017

30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016

31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018

32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+

33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018

34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019

35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018

36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018

37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017

38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020

39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+

40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+

 

 

Here is a full list of subtractions from the 2014 off-season list (that ranking in parenthesis) :

 

Graduated: Miguel Sano 3B (1), Jorge Polanco SS (2), Byron Buxton OF (3), Alex Meyer RHP (4), Eddie Rosario OF (8), Max Kepler OF/1B (12)

 

Traded: Chih-Wei Hu RHP (18), Alexis Tapia RHP (25)

 

Released: Tyler Kuresa 1B (38)

 

Retired: Mat Batts LHP (35)

 

Dropped: Jorge Fernandez C (19), Mike Cederoth RHP (23), Max Murphy OF (26), Stuart Turner C (28) , Aaron Slegers RHP (31), Randy Rosario RHP (32), Zach Larson OF (33),Todd Van Steensen RHP (34), Moises Gomez RHP (39)

 

For a total of 19 players, so a good 47.5% turnover from last season

 

 

Here is the list by position:

 

1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016

13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017

20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018

25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017

27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020

28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+

29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017

34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019

 

2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017

4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018

17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019

26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020

30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016

 

3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016

6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016

16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017

35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018

36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018

 

12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016

 

10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017

21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018

 

5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019

32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+

33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018

38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020

39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+

 

11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016

24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019

40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+

 

7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+

8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020

9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019

23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017

 

14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017

15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019

18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017

19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016

22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020

31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018

37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017

 

Clearly Catcher and LHRP are the weakest positions as far as quality prospects go. As far as LHRPs, some of the starters in this list, primarily Taylor Rogers and Lachlan Wells, could end up as relievers. As far as catchers go, John Hicks, who is ineligible for this list, will likely be the first one called up if need arises. Stuart Turner, who dropped from the list, is about a season or two away and Carlos Paulino, who did not make this list, can also help this season if needed. Definitely Catcher is a position in need and one the Twins should probably target at some point.

 

Here is the list broken down by ETA:

 

1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016

3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016

6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016

11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016

12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016

19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016

30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016

 

2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017

10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017

13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017

14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017

16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017

18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017

23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017

25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017

29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017

37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017

 

4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018

20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018

21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018

31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018

33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018

35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018

36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018

 

5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019

9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019

17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019

15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019

24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019

34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019

 

7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+

8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020

22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020

26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020

27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020

28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+

32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+

38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020

39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+

40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+

 

Even though six out of the top 12 prospects from the 2014 list have already graduated, it is great to see that there is a good pipeline of top 15 talent MLB-ready (ETA 2016) and close to MLB-ready (ETA 2017) in a variety of positions. The Long Term (ETA 2018, 2019-2020+) is sure to change and some of those players might move up the ranks and might arrive faster than it is thought. It is also certain that additional players not on the list (or even in the organization) today, will be able to be top contributors from 2018-2020. Another impressive and even serendipitous situation is that the Twins' weakest point, the bullpen, likely has the strongest immediate and short term pipeline.

 

Looking forward to see these prospects play this Spring and throughout the season. It has been some work, but very enjoyable work for me to do these lists.

 

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg

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