If May is included as a starter, the top five projected pitcher ERAs on the Twins next year are May, Berrios, Milone, Gibson and Duffy. Any chance the Twins will go with that rotation?

None. You have the 3 highest paid pitchers on the team left off the list.

Ain't gonna happen.

A good, if depressing, article. 

Thanks. I think.

Because of the SP logjam, the best way for the Twins to improve this year is to upgrade the bullpen. They'll be pitching about 40 percent of the time and are cheaper than starters. We've got room to add at least a couple of quality RP.

IMO, relievers are nearly as valuable as starters if you have quality depth.

Compare Win Probability Added (WPA) for some of last year's top teams. The Pirates, Royals, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers and Cubs heavily relied on their RP to win games.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=2,d

The Twins need two more things to happen for this strategy to work:

• The hitters will have to keep the game close .
• Buxton and Kepler need to quickly progress so there's enough defense to support the pitchers.

I would agree about the bullpen.

However, it is very difficult to determine which 30+ free agent reliever will maintain their level of performance. Signing a free agent, particularly for multiple years, might add mediocrity to then pen with a contract that blocks the young relievers similar to the money they spent on mediocre starters.

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8023-gambling-on-the-relief-market-simply-folly/

The best hope is that some of the young relievers are ready for the majors. The Twins might also see if they can get a younger impact reliever for Trevor Plouffe.

The best hope is that some of the young relievers are ready for the majors. The Twins might also see if they can get a younger impact reliever for Trevor Plouffe.

Completely agree that in-house prospects and trades are the best choices.

Agree, this is both an excellent article and quite depressing. It summarizes what is wrong with the Twins going forward. There is a huge amout of money invested in Hughes, Santana and Nolasco with no real prospect of ridding themselves of those contracts. Except for the truly elite arms, it is a losing bet to invest in 30 (year-old)+ starters and the Twins have three on their hands.  

IMHO, this is the big challenge for Terry Ryan the rest of this offseason--somehow make the rotation competitive with top teams and improve the bullpen. I have advocated May to the bullpen because he could break out to be a real force in the bully, where there is a real need for a power arm.

One of the problems relying on the bull pen to "replace" the starting pitchings impact is that as the innings pile up a lot of teams, especially the Twins add an arm to the pen, and shorten their bench. If they are going with a Sano or Arcia in RF this year they might want the flexibility to use a defensive replacement. The other problem, and sadly unavoidable, for the Twins is that if your BP is to be effective in winning games, it should be handed at least a tie in the 6th inning. Not a 2 run deficit.

Signing one of those three long term to be at the back end of the rotation would have been reasonable. The second signing needed to be a top of the rotation pitcher where the decline would have taken him to the middle. Maybe a guy like that wasn't going to sign with the Twins. Then they needed to use their prospects to get one in trade. Making more multiyear commitments to number 4/5 starters might help a team get to .500 but also makes it difficult to move beyond that.

Their strength again this year is they have a lot of those guys. They have 8 guys that could pitch at the back end of many rotations. Teams aren't going to be willing to pay tens of millions for that player but it is a steal when you get that player for Sam Fuld. So they will use May to bolster the late innings. They will have Duffey and Berrios in AAA. Any injury to the other 5 and there will be no drop off in the rotation. It might even be an upgrade.

I hope Duffy is starting up here.  Much of his numbers were one or two very bad starts.  All #3 and lower pitchers have them.  Duffy's was his first, so he may improve to where he pitched at the end of the year.  Gibson is probably our best trade bait as a starter, unless you are able to package Pouffe with Nolasco and move 2 contracts(the return may not be that great), but some teams need a third baseman.

If Ryan feels it's necessary to clear the logjam he will.  Milone is easily tradeable and so is Gibson.  Neither of whom are anything more than #3 or #4 starters at their best.  What they do have going for them is youth.   People do forget though that Hughes is 29 going on 30 and is just one year older than Gibson.  If Hughes rebounds and pitches closer to 2014 numbers he can be EASILY moved. 

And despite what some posters INSIST on these forums, Nolasco is absolutely tradeable.  Sure it may not be easy, but match part of his salary, package him up with Plouffe and you could get rid of him and get something halfway decent in return.  Now Santana....that's a different story.  At his best he's a #1 or #2, but inconsistency has been his Achilles heel and he's on the wrong side of 30 .    

I think next season at some point we'll see a rotation of Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May, Duffey / Berrios.  I think Nolasco moves to the bullpen, is traded along with someone else, or hits the long term disabled list with a mystery injury.   

"It is easy to write projections off as "guesses" but they are based on a significant amount of historical data."    

I choose to discount significantly.    First off not all ERA's are considered equal.   Someone that gives up 4 runs every game for 20 games  is going to lose to someone that gives up 3 runs 11 games and 5.22 runs the other 9.   The latter kind of defines Gibson and Santana.     Secondly, according to these stats the Twins with a mediocre bullpen and average offense should be in the 60 win category.   Instead the rotation was smack in the middle in ERA last season and I expect them to get better, not worse.    

Thirdly, it is based on a significant amount of historical data but how does it fair in historical projections?     Last year Milone, Pelfrey and May outperformed their projections by a full run.    Santana and Gibson by over half a run and Nolasco and Hughes under performed by a run or more.    In other words, none of the projections came within a half a run of the actual results.     Now with all the historical data they project Milone, Gibson, May and Duffey to be worse in 2016 than they were in 2015.    They expect Nolasco to be as good as Santana.    Of course it could happen but anyone want to bet on it?

I had a note arbitration last year that Milone's steamer projection was 4.49. I don't see the full run difference. Doesn't really matter though. Not worth trying to locate steamer for the rest.

This objective and respected projection shows that the Twins starters do not compare well with the rest of the central. The Twins have to hope they all outperform. That doesn't seem likely. I have Bill James projections but have not compared to rest of central yet. Maybe the Twins will look better.

Thanks for posting this.  For all our happiness for 2015, we performed above expectations and made it to .500.  This is a realistic look at the starting pitching.  For 2015 we need Berrios to live up to our hopes, Duffey to find his 2015 magic, and the management to look at performance and not salaries in 2016.