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WARNE: Keeping Track of All the Moving Pieces in the Twins Offseason


Brandon Warne

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The Minnesota Twins made a flurry of moves over the past few days that have left fans and media types buzzing with anticipation not only for the 2016 season, but also the rest of this offseason. It’s not even Thanksgiving yet, and the Twins have already made or have the wheels in motion on three moves that had direct 40-man and even 25-man roster implications.

 

The trade to move Chris Herrmann to the Diamondbacks was mostly borne out of a necessity to clear roster space. Even with catcher Eric Fryer outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of the season, the odds that Herrmann would stick through the winter with the Twins were slim. The Twins flipped him to Arizona and got a toolsy, old-for-his level outfielder in Daniel Palka, who might remind some of Adam Brett Walker with his big-time power and propensity for the strikeout. Both of those characteristics are a bit more tempered with Palka, though he did post the California League’s only 20-20 season in 2015 with 29 home runs and 24 stolen bases. Again, he was old for the level — just a half year above the average age of other High-A contemporaries according to Baseball Reference — and might not have a long-term position, but it’s still an ample return for the less-than-stellar game tape Herrmann had put up in parts of four seasons with the big league club.

 

The other two moves were surprising. The Twins won the bidding for Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, a 29-year-old masher who has hit 105 home runs over the past two seasons in the KBO. For reference, former Twins left-hander Andrew Albers went to the KBO immediately after the Twins took him off the roster, and NL Rookie of the Year finalist Jung Ho Kang of the Pirates was a nine-year veteran of the KBO before he came over to the big leagues. Kang and Park were teammates with the Nexen Heroes from 2011 to 2014. Kang was coming off an incredible season with nearly a 1.200 OPS with the Heroes when he made the defection a year ago and put together a solid .287/.355/.461 season for Pittsburgh this year as a 28 year old.

 

It sounds as though Park might be seeking a four-year deal perhaps in excess of $20 million, but that seems like a reasonable cost and risk for a player who brings big-time power potential to the table. Park has posted OPS figures north of 1.000 the last three years, with tons of swing-and-miss in his game as well as walks to go with the obvious power. Speed doesn’t appear to be a part of his game, and defensively the folks at Baseball America suggested he was a 55 defensive first baseman (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and perhaps a 40 left fielder. We’ll get into this a more in a bit, but it’ll be interesting to see how he’s handled on that side of the game.

 

The other stunning move was the club shipping Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy. Hicks had a breakthrough in 2015, hitting .256/.323/.398 while showing his loud tools far more frequently than he ever did in his first two seasons. For as good as he looked at times, Hicks’ breakout was still mostly confined to one month — a 1.001 OPS in July — and still primarily from the right side of the plate. In other words, the short side of what would typically be a platoon guy. Yankee Stadium might play up his left-handed swing a bit, and the tools are still here for a star — he’s still younger than when Carlos Gomez broke out with the Brewers, for instance — but the Twins saw a need and struck by getting Murphy. Murphy is just 24, and is late to the game as a catcher who has seen his abilities behind the plate get better each season. Various reports suggest he’s adequate defensively right now, with a pretty good arm and framing and perhaps a need to improve his blocking. He should still in time be able to grade out as slightly above average, and he makes enough contact to be a decent hitter. There isn’t a ton of power — more against lefties than righties — but against same-sided pitchers he did manage to show a better ability to draw walks and hit for average. It’s all in small sample sizes anyway, so it’s hard to really get a read on what he’d look like in, say, 400 plate appearances. It’s all for good reason, too, as the Yankees have Brian McCann ahead of him and Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez behind him. As ESPN’s Keith Law said, it was a good old-fashioned deal that worked for both sides. The Yankees took

a chance on potential, while the Twins went the safer route with a stronger floor. Sound familiar?

 

With all these wheels in motion, there are countless storylines that are affected on the existing team. Let’s take a look at each player (possibly) affected, and what it may mean:

 

Kurt Suzuki – Clearly Suzuki is going to see a reduction in his workload, and by the end of the year could be a strict backup if things go perfectly for Murphy. Ultimately, all that really matters is that Suzuki won’t reach the 485 plate appearances needed for his $6 million option in 2017 to vest. It wasn’t going to anyway; with just Fryer and Herrmann behind him Suzuki still got just 479 plate appearances in 2015.

 

Joe Mauer – The sun could be setting on Mauer as a full-time regular, barring a Justin Morneau-style resurrection. With playing time needed for Park and the uncertain futures of a couple other corner-type players, Mauer could see a reduced role in 2016. Then again, if he continues to be one of the best on the team at getting on base, it’s certainly possible he’ll get another 500-plus plate appearances.

 

Miguel Sano – Just how serious are the Twins about Sano playing outfield? That’s the next most important domino to fall, and maybe the club doesn’t even know the answer yet. Could it possibly just be posturing for….

 

Trevor Plouffe – …a possible Plouffe trade? It’s unclear how much public perception really matters in trade talks, but if the Twins are steadfast in their belief that Sano can handle an outfield corner and that they’ll keep Plouffe well into his arbitration years, well, that’s what they want other teams to believe, too. There’ll be no reason at all to dip into the free agent market for an outfielder if the Twins keep that configuration, though they’d have to be awfully sure Sano can handle the outfield, even if it’s just until the team ultimately moves or moves on from Plouffe, who is eligible for free agency after 2017. Plouffe’s evolution as a solid hitter with big power for the position, as well as his continued development defensively has made this a good problem for the Twins.

 

Eddie Rosario – The only real dilemma for Rosario is where he’ll play. He could literally play any of the three outfield positions, with center seeming to be the least talked about and least likely. Still, most people I’ve talked to believe he could handle it, and it’s clear he’s got the arm to play just about anywhere.

 

Byron Buxton – The pervasive belief from national types is that the Hicks trade opens up center field for Buxton, but the Twins most likely won’t make the same mistake twice. That is, handing the job to a raw but talented youngster who is in over his head. He’ll have ample opportunity to take the job in spring training, but if he’s in Rochester in early April, it wouldn’t be a stunner.

 

Max Kepler – Local sources believe that the club is in love with Kepler’s future, and Law said in an exclusive chat on Thursday that he views the German as having star potential. The odds of him cracking the opening day roster seem remote at this juncture — mostly due to how recently all of his development and skills have come together — but there’s a real chance that his coming of age made the Twins more comfortable with a deal including Hicks.

 

Oswaldo Arcia – Arcia’s sort of a forgotten man, though it’s for good reason given his defensive inadequacies and the fact that he hit sub-.200 while in Rochester for the bulk of the 2015 season. He doesn’t appear to be long for the organization one way or the other — keep in mind he’s out of options this spring — but if he’s starting in right field on opening day, it wouldn’t be a complete stunner. Though that probably means Plouffe was traded and Sano is at third base. Arcia could make it as a reserve outfielder, too, with multiple options who can play center already on the roster.

 

Danny Santana – Santana will be on the big league roster one way or the other as he’s also out of options, but there’s an outside chance he too could start on opening day in center field. After an abysmal 2015 season, it’ll be on Santana to prove he has a big league future, regardless of if it’s as a super utility or if he can settle into one position. Chances are if it’s the latter, it’s in another organization.

 

Kennys Vargas – These offseason moves ultimately feel like the kiss of death for Vargas’ big league prospects as a member of the Twins. After a successful cup of coffee in 2014, Vargas had a very Santana-like 2015, and unlike Danny carries absolutely no value in the field. An enterprising team with a hole at DH might give the Twins a ring — Tampa Bay makes a lot of sense here — but unless he can fix holes in his swing and discipline, he’ll be an all-or-nothing pinch hitting option. There’s still potential here, though; he’ll be 25 for nearly the entire 2016 season.

 

Josmil Pinto – Pinto is just one of three ‘catchers’ on the 40-man roster, and it’s unclear if he’s even viewed as a catcher anymore anyway. After returning from concussion issues in late August, Pinto didn’t get back behind the plate with the Red Wings and hit just .217/.288/.283 in 15 games before the Twins sent him home for the winter. If memory serves he too is out of options in 2016, and with no position flexibility and no room at catcher as the roster currently stands, he’s firmly in limbo as far as the Twins are concerned. The bat has flashed potential at times, but there’s really no hope of him playing anywhere but DH or first base if he can’t catch, and he probably doesn’t have enough juice in the stick to do that on a regular basis. He could make the Twins as a bench bat, but it just doesn’t seem too terribly likely right now.

 

This article originated at Cold Omaha here, please consider clicking through to support the content.

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Lot of interesting stuff here, especially about Kepler. Thanks.

 

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Joe Mauer – The sun could be setting on Mauer as a full-time regular, barring a Justin Morneau-style resurrection.

You really think so? If he puts up the same numbers as last year I'd be fine with him moving into a platoon-like role, only starting against RHP (or even less).  But I'm not sure Terry Ryan and DSP would be ok with that. Hopefully he returns to his 2013 numbers or something approaching that, and it becomes a moot point.  The Sano/Plouffe/Arcia/Mauer/Park/Vargas log jam really is something (with Kepler soon to be joining them). You gotta think that at least one of those guys, if not two or three, won't be in Fort Meyers come February. And the only ones I'm sure will be there are Sano and Mauer.

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