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2016 Lineup construction challenge


South Dakota Tom

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How do we keep Trevor and Miguel in the lineup together? How do we find the right catcher? How do we shore up the bullpen? Should Torii Hunter have a role? Do we need another starter, or just swap out some that we have? Can we afford an ace? How do we do all this under a scenario that the F.O. might actually consider, from an economic perspective?

 

I think it can all be done, by next spring, with relatively few moves. But two of them are big. We would trade Brian Dozier and Kyle Gibson. We would not resign Cotts, Boyer, Hunter, Pelfrey, Robinson, or Nunez. We would sign two free agent relief pitchers.

 

The idea is that the combination of Gibson/Dozier brings a cost-controlled young defensive catcher with offensive upside and front-line pitching prospect, perhaps a year away from the bigs.

 

The holes get plugged in a different way than I've seen, as well. It's not Polanco to 2nd, but Rosario. The defensive arrangement would be young stud/Suzuki at catcher (keeping Kurt below his vesting option), Mauer, Rosario, Escobar, and Sano around the infield. Outfield would be Plouffe in left, Buxton in center, and Hicks in right. We would move Hunter to a coaching role. Customary DH is a combination of Arcia/ABWIII/Vargas. Bench is Suzuki, ABW, Santana, and Vargas. We have some pop in our pinch hitters for a change.

 

Rosario/ABW/Arcia would be Plouffe's backup in left, Hicks would be depth in center, Arcia and ABW would be behind Hicks in right. Plouffe, Escobar and Santana would back up third, Santana would back up SS and 2nd, and Plouffe, Vargas, Sano would back up 1B. Max Kepler would start at AAA.

 

Starters would be Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Duffy, and May with Berrios, Milone, Meyer and the prospect received for Dozier/Gibson in the wings. Bullpen would be Jepson, Perkins, Duensing, Neftali Feliz, Tommy Hunter (both F.A. acquisitions), and some combination of existing relief and starters (thinking right now Milone and Meyer).

 

"A" lineup is Hicks, Mauer, Sano, Arcia (putting a lot of stock in this guy's rebound, no doubt), Plouffe, Rosario, Escobar, catcher, Buxton.

 

But the big keys to this transformation are moving Rosario to second base and Plouffe to left field (and given Plouffe's ability to play SS and 3B, I think he can be an effective LF, though not trying to clone the Alex Gordon experiment and expect the same results). This allows us to trade Dozier, keep Rosario in the lineup at a position where his OBP doesn't hurt you, keep Plouffe and still play Sano, and beefs up the three biggest holes - catcher, potential frontline starter, and relief, all while being cost-controlled and maintaining budget.

 

And the trades are not that substantial - some combination of Gibson and Dozier for a great catcher and starting pitcher prospect. Or it could be simplified, depending on how you want to approach it, and Dozier is traded for a catcher, and Gibson remains. I just feel both are sell-high candidates right now, and this team has not sold high on anyone in a long time - they've looked for other team's castoffs and low-dollar free agents, but this gives them trade chips that will bring back quality in return.

 

How would you shape the roster for next year?

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I applaud your willingness to sell high.  I would be more intrigued with your proposal to trade Dozier and Gibson if you mentioned the trade targets.

 

Eddie Rosario only played 18 games at 2B in 2014.  I think that idea has expired.  It would certainly degrade the defense.

 

Why degrade 3B and LF defensively by playing Sano and Plouffe in those positions respectively when you can degrade only one by moving Sano to LF.

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Why did the Twins improve in 2015? Defense is the biggest reason. These proposals weaken the defense everywhere but catcher. I support improving the defense at catcher, first and foremost. Moving Rosario from a position where he is good/outstanding to a position where he would be a novice makes no sense. Plouffe's best position is undoubtedly third base and so far Sano's position is also at the hot corner.

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I don't believe this is the "great leap backward" defensively that others do. Yes, catcher may be the only defensive upgrade (though a full year of Escobar's steadiness as SS, Buxton in center and Hicks in RF is an upgrade over the early-season roster from last year).  Other positions remain the same.  Plouffe has a great arm, and is better-framed to make the move to a corner outfield position.  Sano just needs to be in the lineup everyday.  Every member of that team can grow into those positions, and while Rosario didn't play a lot of 2B lately, he has played the position extensively in his career and is an acceptable defensive player.

 

Another poster wondered about who the targets might be, and while I'm not as well-versed on minor league talent as several others on this site, I look at players like Kyle Zimmer from KC as a AA (just starting AA) pitcher with potential, and either a Gary Sanchez from the Yankees or Andrew Susac from the Giants or, yes, Jonathan Lucroy (who isn't really young, but is a strong defender and hitter who's cost-controlled through 2017) as a catching upgrade.  Don't know how to make all the parts fit, but I'm sticking with my plan...

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I don't see the need for Plouffe in left.

 

Dozier departing, we lose some punch at the position compared to possible repalcements for now.

 

I have faith that Arcia will get it all together and smash the ball and take the Twins to the limit in arbitration before departing via free agency someday. But, by then, we might have Adam Walker.

 

I agree that the Twins should avoid signing any of their arbitration guys Fien and Nunez, not to mention the free agents like Boyer and Cotts and Duensing (and Hunter and, of course, Pelfrey).

 

Bring in new bodies. Or advance prospects.

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I am more in favor of moving Plouffe.  Moving Gibson may be needed with all the starting arms the Twins have.  This should bring back a catcher and sign another FA starting pitcher and patching the bullpen.  Should try and package Nolasco with others to free money space. 

Do not expect hard throwing bullpen to be here this year, so a patch job with no long term commitments is needed.  Hopefully that will arrive in 2017.

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I would agree with trading Plouffe and Dozier to get a catcher, and maybe even a young defensive middle infielder. I really hate the thought of trading Gibson. It would have to be for the proverbial "I made him an offer he couldn't refuse" in reverse deal. So why trade Plouffe and Dozier? Plouffe because he's in the wrong place at the wrong time. Sano has to play third, as first is unavailable for 3 yrs, for this whole rebuild to work. It's one of the starting pieces to the whole project. Dozier, while a slightly above average defender, has shown no inclination to adjust to the way he is being pitched. Once teams got really serious about avoiding fastballs up in the zone to him, he became virtually an offensive liability, especially that high in the order. It's a rare chance to sell somewhat on the high side. The reason I advocate some of these moves is I don't believe this team, as constructed, can do anything better than compete for the second WC spot. If that's sufficient, then stay the course. Otherwise something out of the ordinary TW should be attempted. Do I think it will? Not a chance in hell. But it's nice to consider. Ryan said he needs a catcher to "take some of the load" of Kurt. Sounds like he has an agrssive plan for the off season in place already.

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Let's look at the players we do have and figure out how to bat them.

 

Hicks CF

Dozier 2B

Mauer 1B

Sano DH

Plouffe 3B

Arcia RF

Rosario LF

Suzuki C

Escobar SS

 

Pretty solid if everyone produces. Would ratehr see Dozier at third and Mauer further back, if could find a #2 hitter (maybe Hicks moves there when Buxton comes up). The challenge is Sano/Plouffe/Arcia/ Although far from eprfect, Sano IS the cleanup hitter. Plouffe is inconsistent. Arcia needs to prove himself all over again.

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