Fall. My favorite season.

It’s always sad to see the summer go, but the colors in Minnesota, ducks and geese flying overhead, and deer rummaging through the woods are some of my favorite things.

The fall season, October especially, also means it’s time for the MLB Playoffs, another one of my favorite things. Whether that is because early in my childhood I got to stay up late to watch the Twins win the 1987 and 1991 World Series with my hero Kirby Puckett being magical, or getting to sit in the stands and watch as the Soul Patrol, Doug Mientkewicz, Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Eddie Guardado, Joe Nathan, and everybody else won six Central Division Titles in the 2000’s. That experience culminated for me by watching Game 163 in the ‘Dome from above the Baggy.

Fall baseball is the best.

But in seasons where your favorite team just isn’t any good, or they just didn’t win quite enough games, it leaves a hole. As I’ve gotten older and experienced more Fall-baseball-envy however, I’ve also discovered Minor League prospects can fill it!

The Arizona Fall League is a short season league where every team in Major League Baseball sends some of their Top Prospects in October. It is used as a proving ground for players looking to take the final steps to their MLB dreams. Whether they are an elite talent looking to make a case for an early call-up the next season, or someone on the doorstep being evaluated for protection on the 40-man roster, these minor league games in October can determine a lot going into the offseason.

Each team sends seven players to the league, and the Twins are represented on the Scottsdale Scorpions roster this season by catchers Mitch Garver and Stuart Turner, outfielder Adam Brett Walker, and pitchers Nick Burdi, Trevor Hildenberger, Jake Reed, and Taylor Rogers.

It will be the second trip to the league for both Reed and Rogers, as they pitched for the Salt River Rafters last season. Reed appeared in ten games, and put up a 0.71 ERA and 10/3 K-to-BB ratio in 12.2 total innings. Rogers appeared in just three games, as he took a line drive off his shoulder/arm in the third inning of his first start. He allowed one run in 5.2 total innings.

Players on that same Rafters roster who made their MLB debut for the Twins this year included Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler. Rosario just missed on the league’s batting title.

While there may not be quite that much star power in this season’s selections, there is still plenty of intrigue, and another outfielder is at the forefront.

Adam Brett Walker is not your typical prospect.

He doesn’t hit for average. He strikes out too much. He won’t wow you in the field or with his arm…But he will amaze you with his power.

When I had the privilege of traveling down to Spring Training again this season, it was hard to miss him on the back fields, because there was a mass migration to the fences where he was playing when it was his turn to bat. Just like there was for Sano and Buxton, and he didn’t disappoint. In a single day, I watched him hit one long blast (probably) out of the complex, and heard the fan reaction for his second one that got out of there in (probably) 0.5 seconds his next at-bat.

Power. He’s definitely got it. But as mentioned, he also has a few of what many would consider red flags in his game.

He doesn’t hit for average:

In four Minor League seasons, he has batted just .254, with a season high of .278 in 2013 for the Low-A Cedar Rapids Kernels. In 2014 he hit just .246 moving up a level to High-A Fort Myers, and .239 this past season with the Southern League Champion Chattanooga Lookouts.

He strikes out too much:

In 1,747 career professional plate appearances and 452 games, he has made the walk of shame from the batter’s box back to the dugout 542 times, including 195 this season at AA in 133 games, a rate of 34.8% of his plate appearances. Compared to his 31.0% career rate strikeout rate, this means it has gone from pretty bad to even worse as he’s moved up the ladder.

He won’t wow you in the field or with his arm:

As a pure corner outfielder thus far as a pro, he has a career fielding percentage .970. For context on this number, a stat which is hated to the sabermetricians of the world, of the eighty-one MLB-er’s who played 800+ innings in the outfield in 2015, only one had a fielding percentage below that.

His name was Hanley Ramirez, and if you didn’t see some of his antics in the outfield this year around the Green Monster for the Boston Red Sox, you are missing out.

His career high of seven assists in a season also doesn’t jump out at you when compared to say, the fact that Eddie Rosario’s sixteen in the MLB this season nearly led all of baseball. This was also a number that was driven by his accuracy and opposing team’s willingness to keep testing him, and not by a cannon-like right-arm coming off his shoulder like teammates Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton possess.

These current skills simply won't jump out at you, but is it possible any of these facts will even matter? I mean, there’s still that power…

After all, in his four seasons in the Twins’ system he’s launched 14, 27, 25, and 31 home runs. Those totals have led his league in every season. In 2015, the second place slugger had 17 compared to his 31. Not even phenom rookie Kyle Schwarber of the Cubs was keeping up with that pace while in the Southern League.

He’s also driven in 45, 109, 94, and 106 runners in those seasons, leading his league in that category the past three seasons as well.

It’s amazing to me that despite the room for improvement in these areas, the overall production remains. It is also notable that his on-base percentage has remained nearly stagnant throughout his development, meaning his walk-rate has also improved year-to-year, albeit not by much.

If you’re into comparisons for his future prospects as a Major League player, I hate to tell you this, but you won’t find one. It is also now four years into his development and he has neither moved the needle on his prospect floor or on his ceiling in any direction. He could be the next Twins’ version of David Ortiz, washed out after some cups of coffee, or he could be the Red Sox version of the same player, a once-in-a-generation slugger. He could also be none of that.

His time in the Arizona Fall League in 2015 could finally move those needles either way. That’s what I’ll be watching for.

QUICK PREVIEWS:

- Nick Burdi finished his 2015 season on a much higher note than it started, as a lack of control in AA led to a midseason demotion.

To start the season in Chattanooga, Burdi made it through twenty games with a 3-4 record, 5.93 ERA, thirty-two hits and twenty-two walks allowed in 30.1 innings, while striking out thirty before the roster move was made.

He rediscovered the same success in the Florida State League as he had in 2014, dominating the hitters of the league for five weeks before earning back his place at AA. In twenty FSL innings pitched, he racked up twenty-nine strikeouts compared to just three walks, and upon his recall to AA was 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and two saves.

He finished the year for the Lookouts by making eight more appearances, and was 0-0 with one save, a 1.35 ERA, eight hits and ten walks allowed in 13.1 innings, while striking out twenty-one in those games.

Burdi does not have to be added to the 40-man roster, so his time in the AFL is a likely audition for AAA and a potential midseason MLB callup.

- Trevor Hildenberger was Twins Daily’s 2015 Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year, and is a much similar situation to Jake Reed’s of last season going into the AFL: Can he continue his ascension in the reliever rankings after finding great success in the lower levels?

For 2015, Hildenberger appeared in forty-one games between the Cedar Rapids Kernels and Fort Myers Miracle. Everything about his numbers was otherworldly: 1.55 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, just thirty-nine hits and seven walks allowed, while striking out eighty.

- Jake Reed make’s his second trip to the AFL, but enters with a much different outlook than he a year ago, as his 2015 season was very similar to teammate Nick Burdi’s

He struggled in the Southern League to the tune of a 5.64 ERA upon his demotion, with several appearances of multi-run damage, including a June 1st appearance of misery where nine runs scored in just one inning pitched (five runs were earned).

Like Burdi, his demotion proved only that he could dominate A-league hitters as in twelve innings he did not allow a single earned run.

He was back up at AA to end the season, but it didn’t go well, as he raised his double-A earned run average to 6.32 after two appearances to end his season.

- Taylor Rogers, like Reed, makes his second consecutive trip to the AFL, and I’m sure he’d enjoy more of an opportunity than he had last year.

2015 was a very good season for the left-hander, and he spent all of it in AAA with the Rochester Red Wings. His 174 innings pitched trailed only teammate Pat Dean for the lead in all of the Minor Leagues in that category.

What this trip might mean for Rogers however, is how he fits in the future plans of the parent club.

He has been a starter all of his career, but it is only his dominance against same-sided hitters that has really stood out to this point.

He had a 1.42 ERA, .177 batting average against, and 0.68 WHIP vs. left-handed hitters in 2014, while against righties those numbers ballooned to 5.23, 1.67, and .326. It’s been a similar pattern throughout his MiLB career, and could mean that a similar career path to another lefty on the Twins, Brian Duensing, could be in order.

- Stuart Turner goes into the Fall League after spending all of 2015 in Chattanooga. It was a struggle for him, as his .223/.322/.306 triple slash line will attest, but he was much better in the second half, as he went .262/.363/.341 after the All-Star break.

Notable, is he kept his Isolated Discipline (OBP minus BA) at .100 throughout the year, at least maintaining an ability to get on base through other means.

Turner has been sent to the level above the next player in this preview in each of the last two seasons, but their AFL performance this fall may shape the pecking order for 2016.

-Mitch Garver did much more with the bat than Turner in 2014, but that was while being a level lower in the Midwest League and a year older than Turner. In 2015, he posted very similar numbers in the FSL to what Turner had done the year before (.688 OPS vs. .698 OPS) while those same conditions applied.

They are both labeled as strong defenders, finishing one-two in the collegiate catcher of the year voting in 2013, which is where my competition for playing time in 2016 comparison comes in.

It is also a bit odd to have two catchers from one MLB team on the same AFL roster, but this may be by design. The Twins likely want to learn a bit more about their depth at the catcher position going into the offseason as this is one area they might look hard at improving through other means, and what better way to do so than side-by-side?

QUICK FIX:

The Scottsdale Scorpions are taking on the Salt River Rafters on opening night as I write this (Box Score), and Walker has contributed a walk, after which he scored from first on a double.

Good luck to all of the players in the AFL for the Twins this season, and I’m looking forward to following along with everyone at Twins Daily!

Please feel free to ask any questions about the AFL and discuss this week’s performances!