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WARNE: A Eulogy for the 2015 Minnesota Twins


Brandon Warne

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Surprises are great. They crop up when you least expect them and can frequently be a harbinger of the days to come.

 

And if the 2015 season is any indicator, things are about to be a lot more fun in Twins Territory.

 

This season was dotted with debuts of players that fans have been awaiting for years. First Eddie Rosario, then Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, even Tyler Duffey and finally Max Kepler. Even without the highly-anticipated debut of Jose Berrios — no doubt not far down the road — the Twins assimilated a group of high-end prospects that by and large hit the ground running. Sano won’t win the Rookie of the Year award, but in the words of Trevor May he injected some life into a team at midseason that was desperately looking for some punch.

 

Sano and Rosario helped lock down a batting order that saw Kurt Suzuki bat in the middle on 37 occasions. Rosario, along with an awakened Aaron Hicks, an improved Torii Hunter and Buxton helped transform the outfield defense from downright brutal to around league average, depending on what defensive stats you believe. That’ll improve as Hunter sees less time in the outfield next year. And I know what you’re saying; what if he doesn’t come back? Well, that would also qualify as less time in the outfield next year. There’s still room for the outfield defense to improve even more, and that’s huge for a team that has quite a few prominent fly ball pitchers, like Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Trevor May and Phil Hughes.

 

Hicks’ emergence all but solidified that he’ll be starting in center or right field come Opening Day 2016. He hit .259/.333/.432 in 291 post-July 3 plate appearances — after coming off the disabled list — and flashed the loud tools he possesses far more frequently than he did in his first two big league seasons. Rosario also showed loud tools but is perhaps a bit too exploitable outside of the strike zone to sustain his 2015 success. He won’t have a Danny Santana-like regression, but it’s also worth noting that he finished the season with a .289 on-base percentage; four points lower than Hunter and what would be the 10th-worst mark in baseball had he accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify. He fell 28 plate appearances short.

 

A disappointing development for the Twins in 2015 was the backsliding of Oswaldo Arcia, who put together 19 uninspiring games for the big club before getting injured and subsequently sent to Rochester once healthy. The time with the Red Wings was a catastrophe, as he hit just .199/.257/.372 with an 82-18 K/BB ratio. With the amount of outfield depth that has emerged as big league ready or close to it, Arcia is alarmingly close to being an organizational afterthought. The Twins have likely made up their mind on what’ll happen with him, but it wouldn’t be surprising if his future hinges on what Hunter decides. Arcia is out of options in 2016 and could in theory serve as the fourth outfielder with multiple center field options on the roster as is.

 

Another disappointing development with the 2015 Twins was the obvious regression of Santana, who clearly couldn’t replicate the .405 BABIP-fueled 2014 line he put together. Santana’s value completely bottomed out, as he hit just .215/.241/.291, with all three triple-slash marks at least 100 points off his 2014 values. At this point, his best shot to carve out a role is as a super utility guy. It’s as if someone was saying that a year ago or something, but I don’t recall for sure …

 

The 2015 season was the season of breakouts and improvements for the Twins, mostly. May and Kyle Gibson headlined rotation improvements, while Eduardo Escobar had a red-hot second half, and Hicks finally showed the Twins he was ready to handle a full-time role.

 

But for all the improvements, there were significant fallbacks for players which hampered the Twins’ efforts, especially in the second half. The Twins got literally nothing from Ervin Santana in the first half due to a suspension, while the second half saw virtually nothing from Ricky Nolasco and not a whole lot from Phil Hughes, who struggled with velocity and home runs throughout the season. Glen Perkins was perfect in save opportunities in the first half and headed to Cincinnati as an All Star; then did the following in the second stanza: 7.32 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and 1.068 OPS against. Kevin Jepsen, and to some extent May, filled in admirably down the stretch in the late innings, but the Twins need Perkins to be right going into 2016.

 

It’s also not positive that Joe Mauer’s first mention comes nearly 800 words into this piece. Mauer hit just .265/.338/.380 — considerably worse than the average AL first baseman — and at times struggled just as badly on defense as offense. With three years and $69 million left on his deal, the Twins are surely hoping he’s got a Justin Morneau-like resurgence in him. Unfortunately, the Twins aren’t moving to Coors Field anytime soon.

 

To strip the season down to nuts and bolts, the club was basically fantastic in May (20-7, .741 winning percentage) and meh otherwise (63-72, .467). That boils down to a 76-win pace over a full season, which is worth noting not because those wins in May can be taken away, but that it’s pretty close to how advanced statistics — such as BaseRuns, etc. — felt the Twins would and should have played this season. There’s plenty to be said for a plucky bunch proving the pundits wrong, but moving into the offseason the Twins’ brass should take the opportunity to make a few moves to better position the team into the future.

 

Bringing Hunter back at a reduced role and salary would be tolerable, but on both fronts would probably have to be considerable on both ends. Addressing the starting rotation is probably not much of a priority for the first time in nearly a half decade, as there are quite literally up to eight sensible options for next season’s rotation. The bullpen will experience considerable turnover no matter what happens, but most obvious long-term answers will come from within for this bunch. The team may look to add an arm or two, but it’ll probably be like they usually do, which is on the minor league side. It worked with Jared Burton, Casey Fien and countless others — even Blaine Boyer this year — so the club isn’t likely to break the mold there.

 

The one thing the club absolutely has to do is address the catching position. A veritable plethora of options will be at Terry Ryan’s fingers, whether he chooses to go the platoon route (A.J. Pierzynski and Brayan Pena make sense there) or if he wants to drop a ton of money (Matt Wieters) or resources (maybe San Francisco’s Andrew Susac?). But one thing is clear: the Twins need to supplement Suzuki, who was named to the Sporting News’ Anti-All Star Team for 2015. Between regressing significantly offensively and defensively — no starting catcher threw out a lower percentage of attempted base thieves — it became clear in 2015 that the Twins need to make an upgrade.

 

The one other thing that would make some sense is for the Twins to pursue a top-end talent. The Twins roster is made up almost exclusively of solid players at their respective positions, but bringing in a top-tier talent like Jason Heyward makes a lot of sense if the club is willing to spend the money. I can hear you scoffing, but if the Twins want to take the next step, it makes sense to drop money in the team while players like Buxton, Rosario and Sano are in the cheap portions of their contracts. I’d place the likelihood at less than one percent the Twins sign anyone to a huge deal, but I’m just suggesting that’s what I’d do.

 

The 2015 Twins season was a rousing success, but I think the brass needs to be proactive to keep from slipping backwards a bit in 2016. Will they do it? We have a long, cold winter ahead to find out.

 

Cold Omaha is now on 92KQRS and 93x, catch this content where it originated here.

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