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WARNE: Twins Bullpen Showing Signs of Life


Brandon Warne

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The two most recent additions to this Minnesota Twins team were to help prop up a sagging bullpen. True enough, the unit was adequate in the first half as the Twins raced out to as high as 11 games over .500. But early-season darlings Blaine Boyer and the since-demoted Aaron Thompson hit proverbial walls, leaving the Twins’ fans wondering if the club would take steps to address the bullpen before it ultimately sapped their playoff chances.

 

And the answer as of right now is … sort of?

 

That’s not meant to be a backhanded jab at the expense of Terry Ryan, who has built this into a team that has not only surprised people on the national front, but led the teams around them to make moves as well. Do the Tigers sell off if the upstart Twins don’t exist? Maybe, maybe not. That might be more of a reflection of the Royals — the guaranteed Central champs — as well as the surrounding Wild Card landscape, and it might just as well be where the Tigers are on their winning curve as well. But I’d have to believe just the mere existence of the Twins — 3.5 games up on the Tigers in the standings even now — played at least some part.

 

And if that Wild Card situation daunted the Tigers, why didn’t it scare off the Twins? The teams were virtually tied at that fork in the road, and yet Dave Dombrowski — since deposed — decided to sell hard on assets like David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria. Part of it has to do with winning windows and where each team is. The Tigers’ would seem to be drawing to a close, while the Twins are just starting to open theirs, even if this season is a bit like cracking them open during that first early March heatwave that sees temperatures rise into the 30s.

 

And so rather than jumping headlong into those frigid waters, Ryan dipped his toes in by acquiring Rays reliever Kevin Jepsen.

 

But hold the phone; aren’t the Rays right in the thick of things, too? As a matter of fact, entering play Monday they were just one game behind the Twins at an even 62-62. Unfortunately for the Rays, that still means there are five teams ahead of them in the race — including the Yankees and Rangers who are the current leaders. In a sense, the Rays figured they’d get wherever they were going, with or without Jepsen.

 

And that’s sort of how the average reliever is viewed in today’s game. Here’s a dose of context: The Twins were a markedly better bullpen in the first half; that much is known for sure. In the first half, Twins relievers carried a 3.71 ERA. Since the break that has swollen by more than a run to 4.81, and just six teams — including the Tigers — are worse.

 

But let’s frame those numbers in terms of the modern bullpen. Surely not everyone’s bullpen is comprised by flamethrowers like the Royals, or with two lockdown closers at the back end like the Yankees, right? Well, when the Twins were sitting at a 3.71 ERA at the All Star break, they were still tied with the White Sox for just 18th overall. Throw in FIP for good measure, and the smoke-and-mirrors Twins had the seventh-worst mark across the league, bound for regression and limited by a lack of strikeout stuff.

 

Here’s some more context: For the season, the Twins have a 4.04 bullpen ERA. That’s among the 10 worst marks in baseball, and is backed by a 4.11 FIP that basically says “what you see is what you get.” The Twins are also dead last in strikeouts at 6.7 per nine innings. In fact, just three teams are ahead of the Twins by fewer than a strikeout per nine innings. The Rays bullpen that decided it didn’t need Jepsen to get where it’s going? They’ve fanned 8.6 batters per nine this year.

 

To put a tidy bow on it all, here’s what the average AL reliever looks like.

 

8.4 K/9

3.64 ERA

44.8 percent groundball rate

 

No Twins reliever with any semblance of a sample size is striking out that many batters. Glen Perkins is fanning 8.2 batters per nine as the Twins’ best — when healthy — reliever, and he’s still below the AL average for his contemporaries. Recently-added Jepsen is right at that 8.4 mark — that’s in just 10.2 innings — but it’s one he’s only reached twice in the past five seasons. Casey Fien used to be able to reach that mark but has seen his cutter become very hittable over this season. Even the groundball rate is a hard one to match, as relievers should usually be able to: A. Strike batters out, or B. Get grounders, in large part due to coming into double play situations in crunch time. But the Twins still fall short of that as a whole with a 43 percent rate. So essentially, the Twins are a group of flyballing non-strikeout guys who walk nobody. In this day and age, that’s not really a sustainable bullpen plan.

 

Going out and getting Jepsen made plenty of sense, even if it was met with trepidation. The most important part of his acquisition was that he’s under control for one more season after this, thereby not leaving the Twins viewing this contention run as a short-term thing. Jepsen brings a lot of things the Twins don’t have within — namely, throwing 95 mph — and didn’t cost too terribly much. It was a sensible addition.

 

So too is the recent acquisition of Neal Cotts, a left-hander from Milwaukee who has gained steam as the season has gone on. At the time of his acquisition, Cotts had a 3.26 ERA that had been as high as 6.10 back in early May. Cotts has been rather good while working in low-leverage spots for the Brewers all season long. From June 1 until the trade, Cotts put together a 28-inning stretch with a 1.93 ERA, 26-11 K/BB ratio and just a .654 OPS against. He does have his limitations — he’s signed just through this season and should really only be used against lefties — but he does have value. Depending on the return when the trade is finalized, this has potential to be a shrewd move by Ryan. Left-handed hitters are batting just .179/.222/.333 against Cotts this year. Righties, however, are hitting .279/.375/.462. But again, if he’s used properly, there’s some value here.

 

The movement of Trevor May to the bullpen was certainly a puzzling one, but it would be lying to say he hasn’t taken to that role with aplomb. Of course, he was far more than adequate in the rotation, and moving him to the bullpen is like some bizarro Peter Pan move since the rotation isn’t exactly fortified. But the numbers for May in the bullpen speak for themselves: 2.00 ERA, 20-3 K/BB ratio in 18 innings and .243/.293/.357 line against. That’s elite late-inning relief in a spot where you need it. His stuff is also sizzling in smaller doses; his fastball averaged 93.0 mph in June according to Brooks Baseball. It’s now up to 96 mph in August.

 

And if Perkins can come back from his neck injury to be anything close to what he was in the first half, suddenly you might have something. Jepsen, May and Perkins at the back end isn’t going to make anyone forget about Wade Davis and Greg Holland or Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, but it’s also a far cry from Boyer, Thompson and Fien. Furthermore, moving Fien into lower-leverage innings could be extremely useful as well; for all his issues, he’s still managed the second-lowest walk rate among 177 big league relievers that have thrown at least 30 innings. So while his 5.2 K/9 isn’t ideal to work the eighth or ninth with, he can still have some value working in earlier innings — especially if he faces mostly righties (.200/.222/.308).

 

Having three lefties certainly doesn’t hurt either, especially considering the fact that Paul Molitor can use Brian Duensing as a long guy and let Ryan O’Rourke (.152/.250/.250 against lefties) and Cotts face just lefties later in games.

 

It’s not a perfect bullpen, but for now it’s something Molitor can piecemeal together until September, when rosters expand and perhaps Ryan Pressly and even Boyer — in a reduced role — can return as well. One thing remains for sure, and that is that they’ll need all hands on deck to stay in this race.

 

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