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Jepsen's Changeup and it's Implications on Twins analytics

Secondary User

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So Kevin Jepsen made some interesting points last night after recording his first save for the injured Glen Perkins. He talked about how his changeup was important last night against the two lefties and how early in the year he had relied less on his changeup to lefties, and it was resulting in his left handed splits getting out of control.

 

For those who missed it, Jepsen worked a one-two-three inning, striking out the side, including left handed hitting Chris Davis and switch hitting (batting left handed against Jepsen) Matt Weiters. In both at bats against lefties, he got ahead in the count by eliciting a swing and miss against his changeup.

Looking at his pitch usage against lefties over 2014 and 2015, we see that he certainly is using it less this year, than last.

 

http://i.imgur.com/9WOMMb7.jpg

 

His splits over that time against lefties were:

2014: .219/.286/.342/.628 with a 29% K%

2015: .247/.355/.355/.709 with a 20% K%

 

Here's what the usages look like before and after the trade:

http://i.imgur.com/wLFLpRF.jpg

 

And the corresponding LHB splits:

Pre-trade:.250/.348/.329/.662 with a 21% K%

Post-Trade: .188/.316/.188/.503 with a 38% K%

 

There are some pretty key indicators that suggest that isn't mere happenstance. Neil Allen was the AAA pitching coach for the Rays organization last year, and (as reported by Kevin Wetmore) he contacted former associates in the Rays organization before the trade was made. Allen has also been vocal about increased usage of the changeup in his short tenure with the Twins.

 

This has the makings of being a prime example of the importance of a strong analytics department. We're working on a SSS right now, but what we're seeing in the SSS is inline with what we've seen from Jepsen in the past. When he's using his changeup to lefties, he's fairly strong against them. Are we continuing to see the emergence of an analytics department that has for too long been woefully nonexistent? Jepsen's success moving forward against lefties will likely be an indication of which way the balance of power is moving.

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ShouldaCouldaWoulda

Love the increased use of the changeup, but if I had to choose my best non fastball pitch, I'd want it to be a nasty curve or slider. Using the change primarily against opposite hand hitters, and the breaking ball against both. 

 

I liked the Jepsen trade, and think he will be a nice add for the rest of this year and next. I have a feeling the FO are going to overcompensate, and make dang sure our bullpen is lights out next year. I think that means May likely stays in the pen, and Meyer continuing to be hope and a prayer as another key piece next year. A improved Meyer, along with May, Jepsen, and Perkins; that could be a great bullpen.

 

Of course that is only if May, Jepsen, and Perkens all pitch as well as this year or greater. However, odds are at least one struggles next year with either loss of velocity, injury, bad luck, or losing command. It just happens with pitchers overnight, and we have to assume that this will happen to at least rotation arm and at least one bullpen arm on any given team.

 

This flip side is that you sometimes find someone else who has an improved season for whatever reason. Heck, a guy like Wimmers can come along and be lights out for you out of nowhere. I mean, before last night Wimmers had been dominant since the moment he was placed in the bullpen. He even was having a great outing last night, until it fell apart. Just an example.

 

I digress...I like Jepsen, and his changeup;)

 

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