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So You're Saying There's A Chance?


stringer bell

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Twins Video

The Twins current playoff probability according to Baseball Prospectus is just 7%. That seems low, given the fact that they only trail wild card leader Baltimore by 1.5 games and play the Orioles four games within the week.

 

Here's a tale about the underdog winning. A young sophomore track runner has had a respectable season in the 1600 meters going into the conference meet. However, she hadn't beaten three older runners (one of whom went on to win the state championship) all year. On a cool, cloudy spring day the sophomore starts out in the lead, as the other higher-seeded runner settle into a trail position, eyeing the other favorites, while the young slender sophomore takes a big lead. Nobody challenges for the first half-mile. On the third lap, the favorites decide they had better start to challenge the leader. It takes a while to close the gap and after three quarters of the race, it looks like the younger runner will fade to fourth place as the three older, stronger runners are clustered within a few yards of the leader.

 

Two challengers try to pass, but can't get past. The last major challenger waits until the last 100 meters, but the leader somehow has a kick left and holds her off as well. The sophomore runs her best time by 15 seconds. It is good enough to hold off the contenders she had never beaten before or after the one conference meet.

 

This story has the advantage of being true, at least as I remember it. My daughter was a sophomore and stunned herself, her coach and her dad winning the conference race. If there were a prospectus for high school track meets then, I'm sure her victory percentage would have been lower than seven per cent.

 

That is what makes sports fun!

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