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An Early Look at Potential Offseason Moves


jtkoupal

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I know we have a playoff spot to chase and we should worry about what is happening on the field right now, but I think that it's never a bad idea to look ahead a little bit, especially since the Twins are fading fast and the teams competing with us are probably a little bit better, Toronto for example. With that being said, here is a look at some ideas I have for this offseason.

 

Likely to leave via Free Agency:

 

SP Mike Pelfrey: Pelfrey has been a pleasant surprise in the Twins starting rotation this season, posting a 3.65 ERA in 118.1 innings, but that spot in the rotation should belong to Trevor May now, and most certainly should in the future. I have nothing against Palfrey, but Trevor May is a piece of the future that can't keep rotting away in the bullpen.

 

LHP Brian Duensing: Brian Duensing has had his ups and downs this season, but as a whole he has complied a 5.88 ERA in just 26.0 innings. He had some injuries earlier in the season and has been better lately, but I would be surprised if he stays in Minnesota after putting up lackluster numbers in an already abysmal bullpen.

 

 

Might be gone:

 

RF Torii Hunter: Torii Hunter has most certainly been a positive energy for this team. His presence I do believe has helped Aaron Hicks blossom and I'm sure has been an influence on Byron Buxton while he has been up. However, Torii is finally showing signs of slowing down, as evidenced by his .188/.231/.329 slash in the month of July, equaling a lackluster .560 OPS. The Twins should look to keep Torii in an instructor's role or a coaching role, but I think right field should go to someone like an Aaron Hicks or a Max Kepler.

 

 

Top On-Roster Trade Chips:

 

OF Aaron Hicks: Aaron Hicks has finally blossomed, at least it seems, into the player we all thought he was going to be. He managed a 1.001 OPS in July and had looked good in center field as well. With Byron Buxton right on Hicks's heals, this winter may be a good time to shop Hicks. If not, moving him to right field is a good option as well.

 

SP Tommy Milone: Milone has been another pleasant surprise for the Twins this year, pitching to a 3.76 ERA in 81.1 Innings this year. He has looked especially good since being recalled from Rochester in early June. Tommy might not net a large prospect return, but if the Twins could get a nice relief pitcher in return, the trade might be worth it, as the Twins have a log jam of starters right now and not enough quality relievers.

 

3B Trevor Plouffe: While Plouffe has developed into an above-average third baseman, it may be worthwhile to look into moving him. An OPS+ of 107 puts him at 7% above league average. Trading Plouffe could net a decent return while opening up third base for Miguel Sano. Terry Ryan will be reluctant to do this, but it makes sense if the price is right.

 

 

DFA Candidates:

 

A.J. Achter

Logan Darnell

Aaron Thompson

Chris Herrmann

Eric Fryer

Eduardo Nunez

Shane Robinson

 

 

Potential Free Agent Targets:

 

C Alex Avila: We all know this guy. Alex Avila has offensive potential, but has not lived up to the hope he showed in 2011. He has missed a lot of time due to injury this year, but he has a carer OPS+ of 102, though that was largely helped by his 142 OPS+ in 2011. Defensively, he is a solid backstop. His dWar the last several years have been higher than Kurt Suzuki's, so he would be a cheap upgrade from Suzuki, but not a significant one.

 

C Matt Wieters: Matt Wieters playing like Matt Wieters would be a significant upgrade both at the plate and behind it. The biggest concerns with Wieters is whether or not his arm can withstand being the everyday catcher and also what kind of contract he might demand. It is not everyday that an All-Star catcher hits the open market, so it is kind of a long shot that the Twins will have a shot at him, but it absolutely must be considered. He would provide a force in the middle of the lineup and be a rock behind the plate. That could make Kurt Suzuki into a solid backup catcher.

 

SS Ian Desmond: Ian Desmond is in the midst of his worst season ever, with a slash of .217/.263/.358 with 11 home runs. Sadly, those numbers would still be an upgrade from the Twins shortstops this season, but a veteran shortstop like Ian Desmond could very easily be a low risk/ high reward project for the Twins and provide them with some stability up the middle which has been needed for so many years.

 

RHP Tyler Clippard: Tyler Clippard has always been a reliable relief pitcher, posing a career 2.85 ERA in 9 MLB seasons. The Twins are in need of quality relief pitching.

 

RHP Darren O'Day: Same story as above, a quality reliever who has a good track record, a career 2.35 ERA in 8 seasons.

 

The Twins really should consider adding two quality set up men in front of Glen Perkins. We see what Kansas City is able to do with Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland. Ned Yost only has to manage a 6 inning game. It takes a ton of pressure off the starting pitchers if you have a shutdown 7th-8th-9th inning bullpen that can be relied on every day.

 

Terry Ryan certainly has some decisions to make this coming offseason. The Twins are entering a phase where they are about to have more talent than places to put it, leading for some interesting decisions for Terry Ryan.

 

Thank You to all who read.

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Matt Wieters could potentially become a real possibility. Missed almost all of last year and has missed time this year. Affordable? 

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Matt Wieters could potentially become a real possibility. Missed almost all of last year and has missed time this year. Affordable? 

That's my concern. I would love to have Matt Wieters on our team. Him not at his best is still an upgrade from Suzuki. But he still may demand a large salary based on what his career numbers are and his value behind the plate. Him at his best is one of the best catchers in baseball. That kind of player is going to get paid even though he has missed a lot of time due to injury.

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Depends on the cost and if any have a tag on them.  Would rather have younger than older.  Bullpen and catcher needs to be addressed in the offseason.  Would also like to see in September if any of the Twins relievers in Chattanooga are ready for the big time. 

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Is a Trevor Plouffe for Derek Norris trade realistic? Would the Padres want more in return? I know they have shown interest in Danny Santana in the past.

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Is Milone worth arbitration. It would be ncie to move him for something (as well as Pelfrey) in August. See neither Herrmann or Fryer being kept. But then, the Twins do need someone to catch. But no one ahs to be 40-manned from the abckstops in the current minors, just spring training invites.

 

Wheeler should be removed from the 40-man. He is being apssed by others. Why Achter but not Tonkin. September callups of Darnell, Achter and Tonkin will elt us see who should be kept in the mix.

 

Fien will probably not be coming back. Jepson could be on the bubble.

 

Plouffe has another year as a Twin. He will still be reasonable. It is 2017 that he might cost the team 9-12 million in arbitration. This offseason, they either keep him longterm or prep him for trade. Sano ash to play some third, and get anotehr month of at bats.

 

The Hunter decision will be amde in December, unless he is overwhelmed to sign somewhere else. his recent slump will hurt his marketability and salary demand.

 

The Twins could have up to 13 spots open on the 40-man, more if they can trade some pieces (Pinto, Arcia, Varhas, Santana or Escobar).

 

But the tell is that there really isn't much in the names above that someone will give you much for. Milone, Pelfrey, Plouffe (yes), Arcia (maybe), Hicks (possibily).

 

Let some walk away in August and let's look at some potential pieces who WILL PLAY for the Twins in 2016.

 

I still want another look at Lester Oliveros.

 

 

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Is a Trevor Plouffe for Derek Norris trade realistic? Would the Padres want more in return? I know they have shown interest in Danny Santana in the past.

Plouffe for Norris???? I would never. Norris's OBP below .300 and OPS+ at 95 (below league-average). Plouffe is above league-average at third base, a position where offense is actually not as good across the board as you might think for a corner position. Plus, he too is a mediocre defensive catcher.

 

The only real upgrade from Suzuki with Norris would be his power, but to give up Trevor Plouffe for him would be silly, Terry Ryan would never do this.

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Is Milone worth arbitration. It would be ncie to move him for something (as well as Pelfrey) in August. See neither Herrmann or Fryer being kept. But then, the Twins do need someone to catch. But no one ahs to be 40-manned from the abckstops in the current minors, just spring training invites.

 

Wheeler should be removed from the 40-man. He is being apssed by others. Why Achter but not Tonkin. September callups of Darnell, Achter and Tonkin will elt us see who should be kept in the mix.

 

Fien will probably not be coming back. Jepson could be on the bubble.

 

Plouffe has another year as a Twin. He will still be reasonable. It is 2017 that he might cost the team 9-12 million in arbitration. This offseason, they either keep him longterm or prep him for trade. Sano ash to play some third, and get anotehr month of at bats.

 

The Hunter decision will be amde in December, unless he is overwhelmed to sign somewhere else. his recent slump will hurt his marketability and salary demand.

 

The Twins could have up to 13 spots open on the 40-man, more if they can trade some pieces (Pinto, Arcia, Varhas, Santana or Escobar).

 

But the tell is that there really isn't much in the names above that someone will give you much for. Milone, Pelfrey, Plouffe (yes), Arcia (maybe), Hicks (possibily).

 

Let some walk away in August and let's look at some potential pieces who WILL PLAY for the Twins in 2016.

 

I still want another look at Lester Oliveros.

I would at least keep Milone until this winter. If anything, he could be bundled with someone else in a deal to net a better return. 

 

Pelfrey won't be back next year, the odds are very slim at least that that happens. Though don't expect Pelfrey to be moved in August either. He has had a pretty nice year and the Twins won't likely let pieces go when they are in the mix for a playoff spot.

 

Tonkin has more upside than Achter. I'm open to giving both a chance in September, if not earlier, but Tonkin has been lights out at AAA. Darnell hasn't proven himself at AAA or the MLB and he isn't going to be in our rotation most likely, so he is very expendable. 

 

I don't think the Twins have given up on Fien yet. He is no longer a set up man, at least for now, but I think the Twins still like him and are still using him in close games, so they haven't given up on Casey Fien yet.

 

Jepsen isn't going anywhere either. He is under contract for next year and has a track record of being a decent relief pitcher who has gotten some big outs. Don't judge his future over one bad outing. Is he a formidable 8th inning man? No, he isn't. But he could if anything be a solid 7th inning man.

 

I agree that Plouffe probably stays, but you can't ignore the fact that Sano and others need a spot and Plouffe is arguably our best on-roster trade chip right now. I would rather keep Plouffe than Mauer, but Mauer has an unmovable contract and a no trade clause. Even in Mauer didn't have the clause, he would still be difficult to move. Mauer won't be released either. 

 

Torii Hunter probably needs to hang it up. His time may have finally come. We need his energy and mentorship, but I believe he is reaching the point where his on-filed production is waining at the age of 40 and it is time to bring in more youth.

 

The Twins won't give up on Arcia yet, but I really don't think he is the best option. Rosario,Kepler, Buxton and Hicks are far superior options to Arcia. Santana will get more chances, as too Polanco maybe. 

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