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Top 50 Twins Prospects mid-2015


Shane Wahl

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The Twins system is entering a new era as the youth movement is now officially underway. Players like May and Rosario have graduated already. Some players like Sano and Buxton will be leaving this list due to graduation in the coming months. It is important to get a glimpse of the state of the system going forward as the Twins are now entering a time of contention (and hopefully victory) over the next few years. The system is still rich, but clearly there are areas of concern already present.

 

This is the final installment of my mid-season prospect update. Late September will bring the final list for the year.

 

1. Byron Buxton: CF, 12-18-93

2015 status: Buxton is basically done with minor league baseball. He got injured again, but should be back with the Twins in September. ETA: already arrived.

 

2. Miguel Sano: 3B, 5-3-93

2015 status: Has obliterated the baseball after his promotion to the Twins. He is also done with minor league baseball. Sano will be used as the DH primarily for the rest of this year, but the Twins should be shopping Trevor Plouffe in the offseason. ETA: already arrived.

 

3. Jose Berrios: RHS, 5-27-94

2015 status: Strong improvement over 2014 AA numbers. Promoted to AAA. ETA: essentially MLB ready now.

 

4. Jorge Polanco: SS/2B, 7-5-93

2015 status: Promoted to the Twins for one game and then moved to Rochester from Chattanooga. His bat is ready, not he just needs to get his SS defense up to acceptable standards. ETA: 2015.

 

5. Max Kepler: OF/1B, 2-10-93

2015 status: In the midst of a breakout season that is really pushing the envelope for the Twins. I would like to see a move up to AAA and then a September call up. Outstanding to see Kepler develop in this way this year. Could be trade bait. ETA: September 2015, or 2016 after Twins roster shakeup in offseason.

 

6. Nick Gordon: SS, 10-24-95

2015 status: The youngster struggled offensively initially at Cedar Rapids, but is really hitting his stride. Defense is great. ETA: 2019.

 

7. Tyler Jay: LHR, 4-19-94

2015 status: Sent to Fort Myers to the bullpen, likely for the remainder of 2015. Starting ability in question. ETA: 2017.

 

8. Stephen Gonsalves: LHS, 7-8-94

2015 status: Totally dominated A ball, hitting a learning curve in A+ ball, but it should only be a matter of time. Perhaps A+/AA split in 2016. ETA: 2018

 

9. Adam Walker: RF, 10-18-91

2015 status: He is having a great season. Homers and strikeouts abound, but he is also hitting a bit better overall and has an .899 OPS. Also trade bait. ETA: September 2015 for some fun homers, or else 2016 after some AAA time.

 

10. Amaurys Minier: OF/1B, 1-30-96

2015 status: Getting moved to Elizabethon will be a bit of a challenge initially, but he should be fine. He could have a monster season. ETA: 2020.

 

11. Alex Meyer: RHS, 1-3-90

2015 status: Struggled in AAA as a starter, converted to reliever temporarily, promoted to Twins as such, optioned back to AAA. Maybe he works on a few things and is back relieving for a playoff Twins team. Otherwise, they have to move him back to try starting one more time. ETA: should be back in 2015.

 

12. Taylor Rogers: LHS, 12-17-90

2015 status: Strong AAA time, replicating his AA numbers from 2014. I would like to see a playoff push involving Rogers as a lights out LOOGY. ETA: 2015 as a reliever, 2016 as a starter.

 

13. Chih-Wei Hu: RHS, 11-4-93

2015 status: Hu has finally given up some home runs, but that is about all that has changed from his excellent production in 2013 and 2014. He is an 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 kind of guy. It will be interesting to see how they manage his innings for the rest of the season, since I doubt that he is going to be top 110 innings or so and he is at 66.2 right now. ETA: 2017.

 

14. Kohl Stewart: RHS, 10-7-94

2015 status: A mediocre strikeout rate has actually fallen sharply in 2015. There is a lot of hand-waving about it as though it doesn't matter, but I think some caution is warranted here. Clearly, Stewart will be in Fort Myers again in 2016. ETA: 2018.

 

15. Tyler Duffey: RHS, 12-27-90

2015 status: Like Hu, Duffey is producing at his current level with very similar numbers as his overall minor league career numbers, and that is telling. He has been excellent this year, and I almost placed him ahead of Stewart. ETA: 2016.

 

16. Lewin Diaz: 1B, 11-19-96

2015 status: Getting used to playing in the States. Born on the day I got my driver's license. Taking it slow, obviously, but Diaz is about as fun as any prospect to watch in anticipation for the rest of the year. ETA: 2021.

 

17. Lewis Thorpe: LHS, 11-23-95

2015 status: The Twins and Thorpe decided to not have Tommy John surgery last September and this amounted to long delay of the inevitable,as Thorpe's April surgery will mean that he is out until at least mid-season 2016. He will only be about 20 and a half when he returns in 2016 (I would assume GCL/Fort Myers) so his status is still top-10 worthy. ETA: 2019 with level/year development.

 

18. Brandon Peterson: RHR, 9-23-91

2015 status: Peterson did not get the attention that Nick Burdi and Jake Reed did after last season. Then the Twins kept him down in Fort Myers for some inexplicable reason. Now, he is up in Chattanooga and he has not missed a beat at all. The 13 K/9 coupled with an acceptable 3.3 BB/9 makes him an elite reliever prospect. ETA: 2016.

 

19. Wandy Javier: SS, 12-29-98

2015 status: Just signed by the Twins to a $4 million bonus, the SS could top this list within two years. Looks like a good all-around player, both offensively and defensively. ETA: 2022.

 

20. Travis Harrison: LF/RF, 10-17-92

2015 status: Harrison is a good all-around hitter, who is fully in the OF this year. The power still has not come, however, and this is going to force him down the list. Harrison is definitely someone the Twins should try to shop in some package in the offseason, or if they really want to trade for a bullpen arm for the stretch run in 2015. ETA: September 2016.

 

21. Zach Jones: RHR, 12-4-90

2015 status: Jones was dominant until his last two appearances and was sent to Fort Myers. When he gets healthy, the Twins should consider promoting him to AAA. ETA: 2015 or 2016.

 

22. Nick Burdi: RHR, 1-19-93

2015 status: Things started poorly, got significantly better for a little bit, then went so poorly that the Twins actually just demoted Burdi back to Fort Myers, in a move that is rather perplexing, even with his bad performance. His mechanics have been altered significantly, and this might be the problem. ETA: 2017.

 

23. Levi Michael: 2B, 2-9-91

2015 status: Michael has battled an injury again this season. When actually healthy, he is good. He has an .807 OPS for Chattanooga this year and is back to stealing bases. He is slugging substantially more this year, which is interesting. Given everyone above him, Michael is in Harrison's camp as trade material. ETA: September 2016.

 

24. Travis Blankenhorn: 3B, 8-3-96

2015 status: Drafted in the third round, the Twins sent Blankenhorn to the GCL. Nice pick, good bat. ETA: 2020.

 

25. Jake Reed: RHR, 9-29-92

2015 status: Like Burdi, the stock is falling here for Jake Reed. He has struggled in AA and should remain there well into next season. ETA: 2016 only if all goes well.

 

26. Niko Goodrum: SS/3B/CF, 2-28-92

2015 status: Promoted to Chattanooga after an OK start in Fort Myers. He always threatens to push that OPS over .700 . . . time will tell. Great speed. Adding CF to his resume is interesting. Good end up being a more athletic and bigger version of Eduardo Escobar. Still relatively young. ETA: September 2016.

 

27. Felix Jorge: RHS, 1-2-94

2015 status: He's back and pitching very well. The strikeout rate has dropped, but so has the walk rate. He is also not giving up very many hits. I think he likely moves to A+ when the Twins move Hu to AA. ETA: 2018.

 

28. Dalton Hicks: 1B, 4-2-90

2015 status: Hicks was smashing the ball in Chattanooga before getting injured. He has been up and down my lists over the past few years now. ETA: September 2016.

 

29. JT Chargois: RHR, 12-3-90

2015 status: Chargois is back after not pitching in 2013 or 2014. He is doing very well, though his control is an issue. It was rather shocking how he dominated A+ ball though, and he is up to AA. ETA: 2016 if he remains healthy.

 

30. Alex Robinson: LHR, 8-11-94

2015 status: After being drafted in the fifth round, he headed off to the Elizabethon bullpen. ETA: 2019.

 

31. Michael Cederoth: RHP, 11-25-92.

2015 status: He has struggled a bit in A ball this year, walking a lot of guys as a starter. He moved to the bullpen and has been excellent. I imagine he stays there. ETA: 2018.

 

32. Mat Batts: LHS, 7-6-91

2015 status: After a very strong start to the 2015 season in Cedar Rapids, Batts was promoted to Fort Myers where he continues to be fantastic. ETA: 2018.

 

33. Tanner English: CF, 3-11-93

2015 status: Has hit a bit of a snag with his first full season, but the steals and defense are intriguing enough. He also draws a good amount of walks. Only grounded into one double play all year, which is crazy. ETA: 2018.

 

34. Cameron Booser: LHR, 5-4-92

2015 status: Strong for Cedar Rapids, but he is walking an awful lot of guys. He strikes out a ton too, though. ETA: 2018.

 

35. Trevor Hildenberger: RHR, 12-15-90

2015 status: Hildenberger has been out of control dominant for Cedar Rapids. It isn't clear why he is not in Fort Myers by now. ETA: 2017, if the Twins are at all serious about him.

 

36. Aaron Slegers: RHS, 9-4-92

2015 status: Slegers is a solid starting pitching prospect who might continue to climb the prospect rankings, but shouldn't fall far. Very good K/BB rate. ETA: 2018.

 

37. Engelb Vielma: SS, 6-22-94

2015 status: Slow to develop bat at Fort Myers, but that should be expected. He is inching toward similar offensive numbers in 2015 as he had in Cedar Rapids in 2014, but the stolen bases have exploded. ETA: 2017 if the Twins want a defensive shortstop, otherwise 2018.

 

38. Stuart Turner: C, 12-27-91

2015 status: As expected, the bat is bad in AA. He is a very good defensive catcher, however. A .566 OPS in AA is a bit scary and the Twins have an immediate hole at the catcher position. ETA: September 2016.

 

39. John Curtiss: RHS, 4-5-93

2015 status: I was too high on Curtiss going into the season. He has been hit pretty hard in A ball this year. The strikeouts are still there, but it is going to be a slow ascent in the system. ETA: 2019.

 

40. Alexis Tapia: RHS, 8-10-95

2015 status: Very young, but with good strikeout and walk numbers. Could climb fast. ETA 2019.

 

41. Mitch Garver: C, 1-15-91

2015 status: Started very slowly offensively, but is now coming around. Would like to see him pushed to AA in August to test his bat a little bit and get him ready for a full season of AA in 2016. ETA: 2017.

 

42. Danny Ortiz: OF, 1-5-90

2015 status: Ortiz was hitting really well to start the year in AAA, then cooled off as he was moved to CF. Maybe the two are unrelated, but I think that it is a good thing for Ortiz to add CF to his resume. The Twins should definitely be interested in his 4th OF capability if they are going to be trading some of their OF depth (Kepler, Walker, Harrison). Otherwise, Ortiz is trade bait to add in a package. ETA: would be September 2015 in about any other organization. Here, 2016.

 

43. James Beresford: 2B/IF, 1-19-89

2015 status: Beresford is totally consistent. There is basically no steadier a bat in the system. The Twins know how Beresford will produce offensively in the big leagues if they want him there. The issue for him is that he needs to move beyond being a second baseman. His future anywhere is going to be as a utility infielder, much like Ortiz's future is as a 4th OF. ETA: September 2015 wouldn't be totally out of the question if the Twins have 40-man space. Otherwise 2016 somewhere in MLB.

 

44. Jermaine Palacios: SS/IF, 7-19-96

2015 status: Palacios is pounding GCL pitching right now after a very solid 2014 season in the DSL. Currently, he is quite slight, measuring six feet tall while being listed at under 150 pounds. He might not outgrow SS, so there is a decent chance that he sticks there. Big sleeper prospect right now. ETA: 2021.

 

45. Zach Granite: CF/LF, 9-17-92

2015 status: Granite dominated in Cedar Rapids and was quickly promoted to Fort Myers. He is struggling some there, but should get his 2015 A+ numbers to match his 2014 A numbers. He has very good speed and some decent plate discipline. ETA: 2018.

 

46. Alex Wimmers: RHS, 11-1-88

2015 status: It is fantastic that Wimmers has gotten back into the swing of things. That he is starting again and striking people out is a testament to his perseverance. ETA: 2016 if the Twins are aggressive.

 

47. Randy Rosario: LHS, 5-18-94

2015 status: Hopefully, a healthy Rosario can get on track and return to showing the promise of his pre-2014 career. ETA: 2019.

 

48. Rafael Valera: 2B/3B/SS, 8-15-94

2015 status: Valera is another sleeper prospect. The Twins sent Valera to Cedar Rapids this year after a decent season in the GCL in 2014. Good plate discipline and speed. ETA: 2019.

 

49. Todd Van Steensel: RHR, 1-14-91

2015 status: Van Steensel is a strikeout machine for Fort Myers. Undoubtedly, he will finish the year in AA if some of the pitchers in AA and AAA get promotions. ETA: 2016.

 

50. Ryan O'Rourke: LHR, 4-30-88

2015 status: O'Rourke has just been promoted to the Twins. He has been hit hard by right-handed hitters this year again, but the strikeout numbers against lefties are astounding. He could make it as a dominant LOOGY. A Twins playoff bullpen with Rogers and O'Rourke would negate left-handed hitters in the late innings. ETA: right now.

 

Honorable Mention: Luke Bard, Max Murphy, Trey Vavra, DJ Baxendale, Brian Navarreto, Zach Larson, Trey Cabbage, Tyler Kuresa, Yorman Landa, Ryan Eades, Kuo-Hua Lo, Mason Melotakis, Corey Williams, Alex Muren, Fernando Romero, LaMonte Wade, Jason Wheeler, Tim Shibuya, Brett Lee, Matthew Summers

 

Conclusion: The system has now peaked. Losing the second-round pick Kyle Cody hurts as well. Including the honorable mentions, though, the Twins here have 70 players who could make it to the show.

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The cast of Kyle Cody keeps getting stranger.  Earlier reports were he and some sort of physical injury, but no one said what.  In the Strib, Ryan is quoted as saying "Ryan said there were no health concerns that affected negotiations."  Despite prior reports that the Twins pulled an offer because of the fantom "physical injury".   Cody made the smart decision:  go back to Kentucky for his final year and enjoy life.

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Add-on comment :-)

 

"Conclusion: The system has now peaked."

 

Is it now the time to start moving out some of the 27+ year olds from AAA and be more aggressive moving younger [ by that I mean "current" ] prospects there?

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Great list. I mostly agree. The one guy who is conspicuously absent is Alex Swim.

 

I fear for him in AA, whenever the hell the Twins decide to promote him there. He has been very consistent up until now. I could be wrong about him. I really, really don't understand how he is still in Fort Myers.

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Add-on comment :-)

 

"Conclusion: The system has now peaked."

 

Is it now the time to start moving out some of the 27+ year olds from AAA and be more aggressive moving younger [ by that I mean "current" ] prospects there?

 

I am *always* in favor of that, and keep in mind that we are also talking about 28, 29, 30+ year olds too. I don't understand the mentality of having aging minor leaguers clogging the top of the system.

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Walker and Kepler have to be losing all faith in the Twins.  Neither has ever been promoted in season.  Both have been league MVPs at some point in their careers.  Throw a dog a bone (sometime).  I like your list BTW.

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Yeah, looking at the AAA roster right now and most of those are guys that won't be back for sure next season (probably including prospect Ortiz and Beresford). AA has quite a bit of dead wood, too.

 

The current Twins roster has these names carrying forth to 2018-2020: Pinto, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Santana, Arcia, Vargas, Buxton, Hicks, Rosario. Plouffe could fit into the mix. That's 11 position players.

 

They have Hughes, May, Gibson and Santana. Milone and Nolasco COULD be around another year or two.

 

The bullpen has Perkins. Maybe Graham. If Oliveros doesn't come up, he's outa here. Names like Boyer, Fien, Densing, Thielbar, Darnell, Thompson, Pressly, Achter, Tonkin all may not make it to next season or beyond. (Time to remove Wheeler from the 40-man at least, no one will claim him)

 

So what is this showing us? If Pinto can catch, we got a couple of solid abckups in Turner and Garver. Swim could be in the mix. But if Pinto can't catch, we are in trouble, The prospects are decent, but unless they can throw out runners and call a great game, it is a major weakness now and in the near future.

 

Plouffe is at third. Sano could be at third, or just DH for the rest of his life. At some point, Blankenhorn MIGHT be the third baseman come 2020. We have Dozier at second. Beresford will eitehr get a September callup or not as a reward for being a good system guy. Michael and Valera are future reserve infielders.

 

Shortstop has a lot of bodies. Nunez won't be back. Escobar is tradable. Santana is questionable Polanco would be a decent ride for a year oprtwo. Gordon is in the wings with Javier right behind him. Palicos and Vielma are reserve infielders (as, I would say, Santana is right now).

 

We have Mauer at first base or somewhere for many eyars to come. Maybe Joe switches to DH when we move on from Plouffe and Sano goes back to third. Is Kepler the first baseman of the future two years out? Is Diaz on his heels to take over in four years or tehreabouts? Does Sano become a first abseman at some point, depending on a longterm contract negotiation?

 

We have too many outfielders. Buxton in center. Is Rosario out there a betetr choice than Arcia and Walker in RF and LF? Does Walker come and DH when a decision is made on Plouffe and Sano goes back to third? English, Harrison and Granite are all solid potential backups.

 

There are 13 friggin' starters on this list. 13! Rogers and Duffy needs decisions made on them now. Berrios will be considered a given. One of these three will start next season depending on what happens with Milone. Whew. What to do with Meyer. Stewart, Gonsalves, Hu all have promise. Thoirpe is a dark horse, as is Jorge. Batts, Tapia, Curtiss, Slegers, Rosario. A lot of names here. And somewhere sits Wimmers.

 

The bullpen. We are seeing O'Rourke. Booser, Robinson and Jay will come in after we do soemthing with Thielbar, Thompson, Duensing and Darnell. The right side looks dangerous. Burdi, Reed, Cederoth, Chargolis, Hildenberger, Peterson, Jones. Finding spots for them will be the challenge, especially if you have to cycle someone from the rotation side into the bullpen.

 

The Twins will definitely become younger, with the only old guys being Perk, Mauer and Santana. 

 

Finishing out this year is still going to be a treat to watch. If we bring in too many new bodies next year, we may see a downslide. I can't wait to see what Terry Ryan and Company do come September, if we see guys who will be around in 2017 and beyond, or guys who won't be here by the end of 2016, let alone this offseason.

 

That's a solid group of 50 players. three levels of starting pitchers. Two good levels of offense and relief. Considering you might add 8-10 to the 40-man this year, then it becomes more difficult after that...the Twins have players to trade for something that they need (will they really need anything) or simply lose them.

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