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Just how good will Buxton make the Twins?


ttreadway

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I am new to Twins Daily, and this is my first blog posting on here. With the most recent news of the Twins calling up Byron Buxton, I figured what better time to write my first blog post. I, like all other die-hard Twins fans have suffered through four long years of extremely disappointing and hard to watch baseball. While I don't view him as the fix-all savior for this team, I do believe he is going to be a key fixture in a very potent lineup for years to come, and am pretty pumped and optimistic about this move by the Twins FO. My question is this year, what impact will he have? How much better will the Twins be with him playing center and in the lineup every day? Here's my stab at answering that question. And while I may be an optimistic fan, I don't think I'm too far off base.

 

I think the Twins need to have Buxton play every day as their lead-off man. While Brian Dozier has been solid there, I am a firm believer that your team leader in home runs should not be your lead-off man. Dozier has been the most consistent hitter in the Twins lineup, but is only 4th on the team in RBI. You've got to think that if he had been hitting second or third, that he'd be competing for first in RBI. I'd also love to see him start hitting some 2 and 3 run home runs instead of all those solo shots. Not to fault Molitor in any way, Dozier has been the most consistent table setter, and they really have had no other options...up until now, that is. Joe Mauers' struggles have been well documented, but the one thing he has done well is hit with runners in scoring position. So having Buxton and Dozier batting in front of him, makes me optimistic that we can hopefully see more of those situations in which Joe seems to thrive. We may not see him hit .325 again, but if we can at least consistently get guys on in front of him and watch him drive in 90-100 runners, it makes that $23 million salary a little more palatable. Plouffe is not anyone's dream clean-up hitter, but he is consistent enough for now until its Miguel Sano's time to shine. And he seems to be climbing out of his slump ever so slightly over the past couple of games.Personally, I really like Plouffe, but my guess is the Twins deal him at the end of July for a pitcher or a catcher if they're still contending...or for couple of prospects if they've fallen off the map. I would expect that would be the time Sano gets his call. That leaves you with Torii batting fifth, instead of second, which makes me much more comfortable. Betting sixth, you've got Kennys Vargas. This might be the biggest improvement in my opinion. I heard on the broadcast today that Vargas is hitting below .200 when batting 4th or 5th. But he is batting right around .350 when batting 6th or 7th. By having Buxton in the lineup, now the Twins can bat Vargas in a less high-pressure spot, allow him to get comfortable, and then down the road they can consider sliding him back up in the lineup where his (hopeful) power will play better. You've then got Rosario batting seventh, Suzuki eighth, and E2 batting ninth. To me, that's all of a sudden a lineup that doesn't make you want to shut the game off after the number 5 batter hits.

 

Anyway, just my two cents. Statistically wise, not quite sure what line Buxton puts up this year, but I'd be happy with him leading off the rest of the year and putting up a line around .280/.350/.450 and stealing 10-15 bases. His defense I think, will make the Twins significantly better. Personally I'd love to see Hicks stick around as the 4th outfielder, splitting time with Torii Hunter in right. I think his defense is good enough to earn him that platoon role (with the exception of last nights disaster he's been pretty good). An outfield of Hicks/Hunter, Buxton and Rosario seems better than anything we've seen so far this year. After this afternoon I'd be just fine with never seeing E2 in the outfield again, and hopefully this move makes that possible.

 

Anyway, please chime in with thoughts on how you expect Byron Buxton to contribute to, and better this team.

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Thanks for your initial post - good stuff. I think he makes a significant impact, both defensively and offensively, and maybe more so defensively to start.  I can't wait!

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I liked your point about The differences in Vargas' stats depending on his spot in the batting order. I am a firm believer that numbers will not necessarily replicate themselves in any spot in the order. It's why I would not move Dozier to 3or 4.

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I hope to see more time with Hicks in RF and Hunter as DH. If Vargas struggles again then it might be time to send him back to AAA and let Hunter be the full-time DH and Hicks your full-time RF. Hicks' defense should be enough better than Torii's to justify moving Torii to DH and Vargas to AAA if he struggles.

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I liked your point about The differences in Vargas' stats depending on his spot in the batting order. I am a firm believer that numbers will not necessarily replicate themselves in any spot in the order. It's why I would not move Dozier to 3or 4.

You might be right above moving Dozier, maybe his numbers would fall off a bit batting second or third. I would imagine pitchers would start pitching him differently if he were batting more often with men on base, and with his extreme pull tendencies, that may prove detrimental to him...good point. 

 

I hope to see more time with Hicks in RF and Hunter as DH. If Vargas struggles again then it might be time to send him back to AAA and let Hunter be the full-time DH and Hicks your full-time RF. Hicks' defense should be enough better than Torii's to justify moving Torii to DH and Vargas to AAA if he struggles.

Good point with Vargas as well. If he continues to struggle I think its time to give Arcia another shot. Bring him up and play him 3 or 4 games a week, platooning between left and DH. I don't think its time to give up on him quite yet, and if nothing else, it would give him a chance to build some trade value.

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Line-up construction has always been a Twins problem, and it starts with Mauer. Should he bat second, should he bat third. Right now, I'd bat him fifth. See if Buxton can lead off. We'll know right away if he is a free swinger or actually will take pitches. But watch the first three games where pitchers will try to stay ahead of him in the count to see if he THE REAL DEAL. I like Hunter at second. I would bat Dozier third. Plouffe is fine at cleanup. Mauer fifth. Vargas 6th, although that prevents people from pitching to Mauer. Would you rather see Suzuki or Escobar behind Mauer. Or Rosario. The end of the lie-up is a catch-all with no one really showing skills at being the guy to move the runner, hit the sacrifice fly, or taking a walk and working the other rotation.

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Thanks for a good read!

 

I agree about Dozier not batting leadoff. The team's leading HR hitter should not be batting in the spot in the order with the fewest RBI opportunities. 

 

I don't agree with commenter who worried whether his performance would sustain in a different spot in the batting order. It's too big a sacrifice to make for a hypothetical worry. My personal opinion is while comfort with a particular spot in the order may offer some emotional security it's way overblown--hitting is hitting.

 

Aaron Gleement tweeted recently that 45 of Dozier's 60 career home runs have been solo. That's just a waste.

 

To quote another AG tweet:

 

Re: Byron Buxton's initial expectations. Here are the only 21-year-old CF since 1980 to be above-average hitters:

Trout

Andruw

Griffey

Bonds

 

This to me suggests he should not bat lead-off. A guy straight from AA would impress just by hitting .250 with a .300 OBP.  I would be extremely pleased to see that production in his first go round, not disappointed. I find it highly unlikely he would get on base enough not to be a drag on the batting order leading off.  I'd bat him 9th.  Then you get all the benefits of his speed on the bases at the top of the order if he does get on base, with no damage if he doesn't. Let him learn. If he turns out to be Trout, move him up. But expectations of him being Trout are just unrealistic. We have a gem here, but he's not a superstar -- YET.

 

Finally I personally hope they don't trade Plouffe just yet (at least not just to dump him, of course anyone is tradeable if you get back more than you give up). There's no certainty that Sano will stick at third, or that he can get on base in the majors. You have just one weakness in your swing -- one -- major league pitchers will find it and relentlessly exploit it.

 

I've seen all-stars suffer for years trying to overcome a single weakness -- like Darryl Strawberry's vulnerability to an outside curve ball. Look at what happened with Arcia and Vargas. They came up and lit the world on fire -- and then they got shut down. Until they learn to compensate, there's no guarantee they'll ever be back.

 

Suppose that happens to Sano.  If you've already traded Plouffe, who plays third? Nunez?  Escobar?  I guess you can limp through that way for a while. But as long as we're fantasizing about contending, let's keep open the possibility of Plouffe returning to last year's form, when he outhit Pablo Sandoval.  He's a good fielder now, too.  I prefer to give him a long leash at third, and if he earns the job, plunk Sano in the DH spot next year. If they both play at all star levels, that's not a bad situation. If you don't want to DH Sano because of Hunter, that's a mistake. Hunter is not part of the future; I would not give up Plouffe in order to sign Hunter for another year. Plouffe is more valuable, a better fielder, AND costs less. If someone needs to go, give up the 40-year old. He may or may not have another year or two in him, but he'll be gone soon either way. If he wants to be a mentor, make him a coach. That's my two cents.

 

welcome aboard, and come again soon!

 

 

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