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To Win World Series, Twins Must Learn to Win on the Road


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Those who know their Minnesota Twins history will know that the Twins’ World Series wins in 1987 and 1991 are two of only three World Series ever where the home team won every game. Additionally, in their 1965 World Series appearance, the home team won the first 6 games before the Dodgers took the Series in Game 7 at the Met.

 

This made me wonder: Do the postseason Twins exhibit extreme home-road splits?

 

To find out, I compared the Twins’ postseason record against the overall record of postseason teams within two years either way of a Twins postseason appearance, in series not featuring the Twins. (The Twins made the postseason in 1965, 1969-70, 1987, 1991, 2002-04, 2006, and 2009-10. This means I compared the Twins’ home-road splits to the home-road splits in postseason games not featuring the Twins in the years 1963-72, 1985-93, and 2000-2012.)

 

In postseason games featuring the Twins, the home team went 39-25 for a .609 winning percentage. In contrast, all other postseason home teams had a .544 winning percentage. Historically, Twins postseason games have in fact seen the home team win more often than the league average.

 

Unfortunately, this is not because the Twins are especially good at winning at home. The Twins have gone only 16-16 to break even at home; however, Minnesota has posted an abysmal .281 (9-23) road record in the postseason (versus a league average of .456 on the road).

 

Historically, Minnesota Twins postseasons have been ruined by road losses.

 

And this is where things become fascinating, because it’s not just the Twins who can’t perform on the road in the postseason. The Road Curse extends to all four of Minnesota’s major professional sports franchises.

 

The Wild are currently embroiled in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and in the first round with the St. Louis Blues saw the home team win half the games. Coming into this year’s postseason, the Minnesota Wild had seen the home team go 28-19 in all their playoff games. This .596 home winning percentage is higher than that demonstrated by all other NHL postseason teams since the introduction of the Wild (2001-2014), which have gone .553. However, the Wild’s elevated home winning percentage is once again driven by their opponents winning at home, as the postseason Wild have gone 8-18 (.308) on the road—significantly worse than other teams’ combined .447.

 

The problem continues for the Vikings, whose .273 (6-16) winning percentage on the road contrasts unfavorably with the NFL’s—since the introduction of the Superbowl, in NFL postseason games not featuring the Vikings, road teams have a .325 winning percentage. (This also doesn’t include Superbowls among postseason games, since there is no home team for the Superbowl.)

 

How about the Timberwolves? From 1997-2004, the T-wolves made the playoffs every year, but went only 5-19 (.208) on the road. During that same time period, in all postseason games not featuring the Timberwolves, NBA teams had a .350 winning percentage on the road.

 

What gives? Likely, this is a bizarre statistical anomaly with no explanation other than randomness. Nevertheless, for Minnesota teams—including the Twins—to have success in future postseasons, they’ll need to do a better job of winning on the road.

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To Win World Series...

 

Cue the Jim Mora-like rant (Play-offs? Playoffs?...)

 

Our current problems are more like this:

 

"We can't win at home. We can't win on the road. As general manager, I just can't figure out where else to play." -- 1992 - Pat Williams, Orlando Magic GM.

 

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Ha... I've got no quibble with that. This blog post is about succeeding after making it into the playoffs--clearly, the 2015 Twins would be lucky to be swept out of the postseason. Because that means they made the postseason.

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