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The 2015 Twins: An Afterthought in the AL Central (And Why That's Not A Bad Thing!)


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The mantra has been the same over the last month, regardless of the source. “The best division in baseball? You have to think it’s the AL Central.” or “The most competitive division this season looks to be the AL Central!” No matter how it is framed, the reasons listed are always the same:

 

“The perennial favorite Detroit Tigers still have David Price, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera.”

 

“The AL Champion Royals still have that speedy offense and one of the best bullpens in baseball.”

 

“The White Sox have improved across every position and look to be real contenders!”

 

“Don’t discount the Indians! This team has a sneaky offense and a solid rotation!”

 

The conversation typically ends there. When analysts list the division top to bottom, they seemingly always forget to include the team that has, unfortunately, taken up residency at the bottom of the division over the past four years.

 

If we are being objective, we cannot really fault the national media for not paying much attention to the Twins. This team, as currently constructed, is not expected to do any better than fifth in the division. Odds makers have forecast the Twins around 65 to 69 wins and locally the Twins have fallen off the radar, evidenced by expected all time low ticket sales (for Target Field) and a growing apathy among the fan base.

 

Yes, our beloved Minnesota Twins have essentially become an afterthought before the season has even begun. While it’s disappointing to see the Twins written off before spring training really gets under way, this national malaise directed towards the Twins may actually be a good thing.

 

How exactly does all of the aforementioned “negatives” create a “positive” result? Simply put, it removes a majority of expectations and pressure from what will be a young team. While Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano will always have some form of pressure as the fan proclaimed “Saviors” of the Twins, other young players on the verge of the big leagues will come up with zero expectations. Players like Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, Alex Meyer and Nick Burdi can all be allowed to learn and grow on the job without the expectations and pressure that they deliver instantly and turn the team into a contender. This relaxed atmosphere can make a great difference – instead of being demoted or benched at the first sign of a slump, the young players can work through it, learn to adapt and (hopefully) improve their game, all at the highest level.

 

Of course, this reduced pressure doesn’t amount to much if the team is still an absolute train wreck – but there’s reason to believe the days of horrendous, unwatchable baseball are behind the Twins. While it may be easy to scoff at that line of thinking, dubbing it “early season optimism” the facts point to changes on the horizon.

 

First, the pitching staff has improved. While we will not know to what degree until the season has reached its conclusion, we can safely say that this year’s pitching staff (assuming they all enter the season healthy) is, in fact, better than last year’s rotation.

 

Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone / Trevor May / Alex Meyer create, at least, a major league viable rotation. Ervin Santana adds another quality starter the team simply did not have last season. Meanwhile, Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone enter the season healthy after suffering through injuries last season. Trevor May looked better with each start, and Alex Meyer and his potentially “ace” level repertoire is knocking on the big league door.

 

Even if Phil Hughes regresses, Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone don’t bounce back and Trevor May doesn’t amount to anything more than Kyle Gibson 2.0 (which, wouldn’t entirely be a bad thing, mind you) so long as those five are making a majority of the starts, the staff improves simply based on cumulative quality. Lest we forget, Andrew Albers, Yohan Pino and a bevy of AAAA arms made a large number of starts for the Twins last season – it’s addition by subtraction simply be giving the starts to actual major league caliber arms.

 

My final point in favor of the pitching staff: Mike Pelfrey, who entered last season as the team’s third best starter, can now be considered the seventh or eighth best option – a great indicator that the overall quality of the staff has improved.

 

Meanwhile, it’s easy to forget that the Twins finished the second half of the season with one of the best offenses in baseball. Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas have been signaled out as prime candidates for regression, which may be fair. Both played at an absolutely incredible level last season, and it would be unrealistic to expect that to continue without some growing pains this year.

 

Focusing solely on Santana and Vargas is a mistake, however, as it discounts the improvements we saw from Brian Dozier, Trevor Ploufe and Oswaldo Arcia. All three made fundamental changes to their approach at the plate last season, and all three showed marked improvement by season’s end – improvements that give every indication of being sustainable as we enter 2015.

 

Factor in a healthy Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter providing a consistent, quality bat and contributions from the improved trio of Plouffe, Dozier and Arcia and there is reason to believe this offense will remain a threat this season.

 

To call the expectations for the Twins in 2015 “slim” would probably be a bit generous. The national media and much of the MLB fan base have written the team off prior to the first pitches being thrown. While I think even the most optimistic Twins fans would struggle to call the team contenders, I do think there’s a an improved club lurking within this division that may prove to be a bit more of a challenge than they’re being credited for. If that is the case, this lack of spotlight may prove to be the best thing for the Twins entering 2015.

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"Yes, our beloved Minnesota Twins have essentially become an afterthought before the season has even begun. While it’s disappointing to see the Twins written off before spring training really gets under way, this national malaise directed towards the Twins may actually be a good thing."  

Really nothing new here.   Even in the prior decade when the Twins were winning 6 division titles along with a game 163 they were rarely picked to be in the top 2 and often placed at the bottom of the predictions.   That's why I always pay attention but put little credence on the rankings.   That's not to say they are wrong.   I think the Twins are long shots to contend.    That is not the same thing as having zero shot to contend.     The possibility I see in them is why I keep watching.    I have always liked the underdog.    

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That's been largely true, although they were expert darlings as recently as 2011. (And we know how that ended up).

 

I think we're used to them being picked to finish middle to last in the central- but this year it's like they're not even in the division. When any discussion arises about the AL Central in 2015, the Twins are not even mentioned once.

 

There's a good underdog vibe to this team. Zero expectations, no pressure - and improved talent.

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For a long time the "Twins way" was a hot and popular topic - it's just that the era has passed and the TR way has not generated any buzz like the Sox and the Cubs or other exciting teams.  Until Buxton, Meyer, Berrios, Sano are on the roster it will and should stay that way.

 

In our everyday Twins reading it is easy to see more than there really is and to feel like we are being underestimated, but my fear is that we may be guilty of overestimating our progress.

 

Whether fantasy ranking, preseason predictions or just a national buzz I enjoy the perspectives just like I enjoy this site, but let us earn some respect before we are concerned about lacking it. 

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Fair point, and it's why I noted that if we're being objective - the lack of national attention and excitement makes total sense. This has been a bad team, which lowers national interest, factor in the lack of any true star signings and yes, it's completely justified that the media doesn't spend much breath on the Twins.

 

My point is less being concerned about lacking respect - that's not what I'm getting at here- it's more that the lack of national focus and pressure may be a good thing for the team overall.

 

If you're not expected to do much of anything, you can let rookies and young players learn on the job. There's no expectation to win, so there's no blowback for letting the rookies grow.

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“The perennial favorite Detroit Tigers still have David Price, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera.”

“The AL Champion Royals still have that speedy offense and one of the best bullpens in baseball.”

“The White Sox have improved across every position and look to be real contenders!”

“Don’t discount the Indians! This team has a sneaky offense and a solid rotation!”

 

And yet, one of these teams, quite possibly even two, will finish with a sub .500 record. 

 

I guess that's why they play the games.

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