Optimism/Pessimism

The current Twins Forum is filled with prognostication and speculation. There really isn't much else to talk about until the team starts Spring Training. Many comments have been written in reference to disturbing predictions from outside of Twins Territory: Being picked in the bottom five by an ESPN writer and being given an over/under of 68.5 in Las Vegas. The realists have joined the negatives in predicting a long, losing season. There is certainly a realistic basis for such predictions/projections. Several players could regress after having big season last year, as well as almost all of the incumbents in the bullpen. The Twins still have defense and range issues in the outfield.

Some have pointed out that the club closed it's run deficit dramatically last year, added a 111 OPS+ outfielder, who would have been in the top three of the Twins triple crown offensive categories, and added a solid pitcher to the starting rotation to bolster their biggest weakness last year. That combined with the coming of age of top prospects and improvement by veterans who are under 30 or who had seasons far worse than their track records would mean a successful season and a chance to contend.

If I have to choose one camp from the two schools of thought that I have mentioned, I would choose the optimistic view of the Twins' chances. A return to career norms for the likes of Mauer and Nolasco can and should make up for regression from surprises and "breakouts" last year. If position players, starters or relievers don't cut it, there are higher-upside prospects ready or close to ready to take their place. I don't expect the squad that breaks camp to play the Tigers on Opening Day to be good enough to contend, but I do think that the roster and the players on it will evolve to be much improved from their performances in the last four years.

I don't think the Twins will win the division or claim a wild card, there are too many question marks that have to turn out well for the team, but I think that it could happen and that the team has to start the season with the expectation that they will contend. I do expect improvement and the blueprint for a perennial contender coming out of the 2015 season.