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30 and 30 Prospects Part 1: Pitchers


Shane Wahl

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I am doing something brand new with my prospect list for 2015. I am splitting the list into two parts, one for pitching and one for position players, with each list having 25 prospects and 5 honorable mentions named. These honorable mentions end up being 10 guys in the system to really watch this year for potential breakout seasons.

 

I am providing only bare bones info for each of them because one really ought to check out the Prospect Handbook.

 

The first part will focus in on the pitchers in the system. There is quite the mix here.

 

1. Jose Berrios: RHS, 5-27-94

2015 start: Chattanooga

 

2. Alex Meyer: RHS, 1-3-90

2015 start: Ought to be in Twins bullpen, but it looks likely that he will go to Rochester and start for no good reason.

 

3. Kohl Stewart: RHS, 10-7-94

2015 start: No real reason not to push Stewart to Fort Myers.

 

4. Nick Burdi: RHR, 1-19-93

2015 start: Chattanooga with some setup and closer duties.

 

5. Stephen Gonsalves: LHS, 7-8-94

2015 start: Cedar Rapids for half the season.

 

6. Trevor May: RHS, 9-23-89

2015 start: Looks like Rochester rotation, barring some injuries to Twins pitchers in ST. He suffers from the Santana signing, Ricky Nolasco being around, and the abomination that is Mike Pelfrey's situation.

 

7. Lewis Thorpe: LHS, 11-23-95

2015 start: either TJ surgery or Cedar Rapids. Might be best to shut him down with surgery early in ST in order to save his 2016 season. He would still be on pace for an early-20s appearance in the big leagues. If he gets through the elbow injury fine without surgery this year . . . wow.

 

8. Jake Reed: RHR, 9-29-92

2015 start: Closing in Fort Myers for first half of the season. Chattanooga with same role second half, likely.

 

9. Taylor Rogers: LHS, 12-17-90

2015 start: Rochester rotation without a doubt.

 

10. Tyler Duffey: RHS, 12-27-90

2015 start: Rochester rotation.

 

11. Michael Cederoth: RHP, 11-25-92

2015 start: Cedar Rapids rotation, though he should get some bullpen work due to innings limit.

 

12. Zach Jones: RHR, 12-4-90

2015 start: Setup and closer duties for Chattanooga.

 

13. Brandon Peterson: RHR, 9-23-91

2015 start: Setup in Chattanooga.

 

14. John Curtiss: RHP, 4-5-93

2015 start: Cedar Rapids rotation and bullpen. Maybe 100 innings or so.

 

15. Chih-wei Hu: RHS, 11-4-93

2015 start: Fort Myers rotation and bullpen. Maybe 100 innings or so.

 

16. Mason Melotakis: LHR, 6-28-91

2015 start: Underwent TJ surgery in October. 2016 in Chattanooga. Full-time bullpen.

 

17. Adrian Salcedo: RHR, 2-5-91

2015 start: Part of Chattanooga's dominant bullpen to work out some kinks. Then Rochester.

 

18. Fernando Romero: RHS, 12-24-94

2015 start: Underwent TJ surgery midseason. Maybe get some work in August. 2016 Cedar Rapids rotation.

 

19. Sam Clay: LHP, 6-21-93

2015 start: Cedar Rapids bullpen with some rotation time after other starters move to Fort Myers. 80 innings or so.

 

20. Felix Jorge: RHS, 1-2-94

2015 start: Was much higher on this list. Struggled in 2014 and I have to think there is a lurking injury has his velocity dropped significantly. If healthy, Cedar Rapids rotation and 130 innings.

 

21. Yorman Landa: RHP, 6-11-94

2015 start: Shoulder surgery last June. Should be fine early in the season to return and pitch for Cedar Rapids out of the bullpen and maybe later on in the rotation.

 

22. Randy Rosario: LHS, 5-18-94

2015 start: TJ surgery in April, so he will be ready early in the season for EST or by mid-season to start for Cedar Rapids.

 

23. Kuo-hua Lo: RHR, 10-28-92

2015 start: Cedar Rapids bullpen. Could move quickly to Fort Myers.

 

24. Cameron Booser: LHR, 5-4-92

2015 start: Cedar Rapids bullpen.

 

25. Ryan O'Rourke: LHR, 4-30-88

2015 start: Rochester bullpen

 

Honorable mention (all "to watch" guys for potential breakouts): Mat Batts (LHS, 23), Aaron Slegers (RHS, 22), Brandon Poulson (RHR, 25), J.T. Chargois (RHR, 24), Todd Van Steensel (RHR, 24)

 

 

(Note: I am moving to a 25 innings rule for relievers in the big leagues in terms of graduating out of prospect land. Thus, Michael Tonkin, who would be about 19 or 20 on this list, is not included. Lester Oliveros, who would be about 22 or 23, is not included either).

 

With Romero and Melotakis being out for the season, or at least most of it, that leaves 28 pitchers to put somewhere. Disregarding the Twins mistake of ramming the bullpen from the top down by adding Stauffer (and maybe Graham), keeping Pelfrey around instead of ending that terrible relationship, and very likely keeping Duensing, those 28 breakdown into four different teams, in my view.

 

Thus, the Rochester rotation would have No. 2 Meyer, No. 6 May, No. 9 Rogers, and No. 10 Duffey (good news for Rochester through May at least!), and No. 25 O'Rourke would be in the bullpen as a setup man for someone like Tonkin or Oliveros.

 

In Chattanooga, No. 1 Berrios would be leading the rotation. The bullpen would feature No. 4 Burdi, No. 12 Z. Jones, No. 13 Peterson, No. 17 Salcedo and HM Van Steensel (add two lefties and this bullpen is lethal).

 

The Fort Myers rotation would be loaded with No. 3 Stewart, No. 15 Hu, and HMs Batts and Slegers. The Miracle bullpen would have Reed and Chargois at the end, which would prove to be a lights-out combination for as long as they stay down in Fort Myers.

 

Cedar Rapids would have a ridiculous rotation: No. 5 Gonsalves, No. 7 Thorpe (if healthy), No. 11. Cederoth, No. 14. Curtiss, No. 20 Jorge, and No. 22 Rosario. If all six of those guys are healthy, Cedar Rapids will dominate. And that doesn't even mention the bullpen: No. 19 Clay, No. 21. Landa, No. 23 Lo, No. 24 Booser, and HM Poulson.

 

Undoubtedly, there are some players not included in these 30 who might deserve to be listed (Achter, Adam, Bixler, Gibbons, Irby, Mazza, Rodriguez, Steele, Wheeler, C. Williams, Lee, Wimmers, Tapia, and Eades come to mind, and were all under consideration.).

 

I do think that this way of breaking down prospects has its advantages. First, there is no weird comparison of position players and pitchers in terms of ranking on a list. The two are just not the same and have different timetables and expectations. Also, this presents a clear picture of what is going on in the system with regard to pitching. I would claim now that the system is loaded up and down, and with a decent number of lefties thrown in. There are about a dozen pitchers like Darnell, Dean, Summers, and even Shibuya, who would have easily made this list if it were not for what the Twins have been able to do in this terrible losing stretch.

 

I do get frustrated when the Twins don't trust their own system better--if they don't trust their players and their development, then what does that say about the people employed to be in charge of such things in the organization?--and instead add weird free agents like Tim Stauffer, and keep marginally good relievers like Brian Duensing. I would not like to be Michael Tonkin, Lester Oliveros, A.J. Achter, Cole Johnson, or Ryan O'Rourke, five pitchers who all really should be legitimately competing for about three bullpen slots . . . but in reality there are no spots available for them (at most one). And their window of opportunity is really shrinking, especially for the right-handed relievers.

 

I do hope that this provides a good breakdown of the system with regard to pitching. I cannot stress enough the importance of looking deep into the system at any given time. Players jump up and fall down these kinds of lists quickly, so the honorable mention today could be an overall top 200 prospect within a year or two. Another positive that comes from looking deeper into the system is that you gain a greater appreciation for how good these guys really are at baseball even though they might never even reach AA.

 

Share your comments about this list and the pros and cons of splitting the prospect list in this way.

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7. Lewis Thorpe: LHS, 11-23-95
2015 start: either TJ surgery or Cedar Rapids. Might be best to shut him down with surgery early in ST in order to save his 2016 season. He would still be on pace for an early-20s appearance in the big leagues. If he gets through the elbow injury fine without surgery this year . . . wow.

 

Unfortunately, this guy is my #1 story line to watch once the minor league spring training camp opens up. Hate to be a "Debbie-downer" but I'll be cringing every day as reports come back from Florida...waiting for the inevitable bad news. Definitely hope I'm wrong though.

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Gonsalves adding any velocity and he ends up being really scary. He is a top 6 or so prospect in 25 MLB organizations.

 

I just don't know about Thorpe. I would hate for it to be an issue with his prep and performance this year and then have surgery in June or July, ruining most of 2016 with it.

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I like the way you did this.  I feel like it gives a better idea of how our pitchers rank against one another.  I also agree that pitching and batting are two different things. This list is very encouraging for the Twins future.

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What is amazing is the percentage of these guys THAT COULD make the majors, if not with the Twins, another organization. The Twins are about to have some 40-man roster problems in the near future.

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Thanks and I agree that just the presentation makes it easier to see how pitchers match up in the system.

 

This list is really stacked. I was pretty shocked when I was done. Someone like Cameron Booser, for instance, could be a top-10 pitching prospect in the vast majority of systems.

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Nater, I agree with you. Thorpe is definitely at the top of my must-follow list with regard to his injury. It is a tough position to be in for the organization. He is young enough that it might really just heal fine and there are no real worries. On the other hand, maybe surgery should have just been done in October last year so that he is ready to start 2016? He is really, really young. I would definitely like to hear updates on this. He has Buxton-like potential in terms of changing the organization. If there were no injury concerns, I would have him no. 4 on this list, without a doubt.

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