January 1st has a much different tenor in 2015 than it did in 2014 for Ricky Nolasco. A year ago, Ricky had recently signed the largest free agent contract in Twins history (though that's not saying much) with the expectation of being a veteran presence to help stabilize a rotation that was in shambles. After a disastrous 2014 campaign, suddenly the idea that he doesn't deserve a spot in the opening day rotation has been tossed around by more than a few fans. As time has passed, it's clear that Ricky Nolasco will be expected in the starting rotation, but what can be expected from him?

When I have discussions about Ricky Nolasco, people are quick to point out his less than stellar career numbers. People point to his career (pre-2014) ERA of 4.37, and an ERA- of 108 (scaled to 100, lower is better). They mention that he has had as many seasons over a 5.00 ERA as he had under 3.00 (2 apiece). The idea is that Ricky Nolasco duped the Twins by having a strong year in a contract season, in the National League no less, and that his 2014 results are a product of a less than stellar pitcher and moving to the more vaunted American League.

But when you dig a little deeper, you see a bit of a different story. For example, Ricky had a pre-2014 FIP of 3.76, and a FIP- of 92 (scaled to 100, lower is better). For those unfamiliar with FIP and FIP-, I'd suggest reading this article on FIP, and this article on FIP-. Essentially, FIP attempts to look at what a pitcher's performance would be like with league average defense by looking at how the pitcher performed on the only outcomes they have the most control over; home runs, walks and strike outs.

So what does this say about Nolasco? Before 2014, Ricky Nolasco was better than average when the ball wasn't put into play. So is there something about Ricky's profile that makes him susceptible to under performing his FIP? Is there something about the balls that were put into play that led his ERA to balloon?

First thing I looked at was his Ball in Play rates from 06-13 compared against qualified starters from that time span. This accounted for a list of 245 pitchers with over 790,000 batters faced and over 590,000 balls contacted (different from balls in play because balls contacted includes homeruns).

http://i.imgur.com/jqwmD4Z.jpg

Unfortunately, this really didn't give any indication one way or the other. His ground ball rate (GB%) is slightly lower and his flyball rate (FB%) and line drive rate (LD%) are slightly higher, but his infield fly ball rate (IFFB%) is much higher than the total, though slightly lower than the average. GBs are significantly more likely to be outs and significantly less likely to be extra bases when compared to FBs and LDs, so being slightly on the wrong end of each of these does put him at some risk, but there aren't any drastic swings in either direction. It's also interesting to note that his GB% was 45.1%, 46.6% and 43.0% in 2011, 12 and 13 respectively, though he still underperformed his FIP by 0.65, 1.13 and 0.36 respectively.

This graph also shows just how Nolasco has been able to put up a good FIP over the years. He is league average when it somes to HR/FB (and also HR%, though that didn't make the graph) while having better than average K% and BB%.

But when you look at the defensive rankings (Fangraphs descprtion) of the teams he played for, you begin to see some possible explanations:

http://i.imgur.com/BvkPJAU.jpg

Nolasco annually played in front of a bottom third defense that cost the team runs. The one hiccup in this train of thought is that during his time with the Dodgers, he still had a 3.18 FIP and a 3.56 ERA despite playing in front of a stout Dodger defense. Then again, 80+ innings isn't a huge sampling, so it could be noise.

So what does all of this mean for Ricky Nolasco going forward? Unfortunately, the outlook is bleak. The Twins defense in 2014 ranked 27th in the league with a DEF of -46.5. The infield appears passable. But the only significant position player that was brought in was Torii Hunter, who doesn't figure to be much of an improvement on the field. What he may bring in leadership and as a mentor is difficult to quantify and predict. Of course, there is help on it's way in the form of Byron Buxton in center, and Rosario appears to have the athleticism to be an average to above average corner outfielder. But with a likely outfield composed of Arcia and Hunter flanking Hicks/Schafer/Santana in 2015, even should his FIP return to his career numbers, there's little hope in bucking the trend of his ERA trailing behind his FIP.