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Jordan Schafer: Breakout or Bust

By jorgenswest

· 2,413 views

Jordan Schafer is at his 4th stop having moved from Atlanta to Houston to Atlanta prior to being claimed by Minnesota. He enters next season as a 28 year old with a significant 1398 plate appearances. Is there a chance that the once highly rated prospect can turn it around at age 28? Has it happened before?

 

I used Baseball Reference's play index seeking an answer. I wanted a group of outfielders that had a similar number of plate appearances and performance through age 27. A group where Schafer sits somewhere near the middle according to career OPS+ and plate appearances. It turns out pretty rare for an outfielder to be given around 1400 plate appearances at Schafer's level of production. I had to go back to 1987 to find 11 comps.

 

27

 

Several of the players listed above have similar characteristics in speed and ability to play all three outfield spots. All had played for multiple teams. Their careers through age 27 were very similar to Schafer.

 

What about after age 27 and their peak values?

 

28

  • Brady Anderson!
  • 5 of the 11 had careers with at least 1000 more plate appearances.
  • 2 of the 11 performed better after age 27.

I wondered if there was another Brady Anderson if I searched back further. I went back 50 years. We can add Boots Day, Tony Scott, Herm Winningham, Luis Melendez, Rick Bosetti, Marvell Wynne, Hector Cruz and George Wright. Not a Brady Anderson among them. It appears that almost all outfielders by age 28 and 1200+ plate appearances have established their skill level.

 

What do the Twins do about Schafer? Should they tender him a contract and go to arbitration? Do they plan for him to be on the 25 next year or do they look elsewhere?

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    11 Comments

    Recommended Comments

    Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

    Bark's Lounge

    Verified Member

    You never know what can happen, but I am not holding out any hope. I would keep Schafer in the mix though, his defense and speed do have value. I am comfortable with him being our 4th OFer next season.

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    • Cedar Rapids Kernels

    jorgenswest

    Verified Member

    I think I would give him two months and be ready to turn to Rosario or Buxton.

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    • GCL Twins

    beckmt

    Verified Member

    As a 4th outfielder should be fine.  Maybe he improves to the surprise of us all.

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    • Minnesota Twins

    Hosken Bombo Disco

    Community Leader

    Jacque Jones had a good glove, otherwise after almost a decade of Kubel, Delmon and Willingham, I'm happy to give Schafer a shot out in left, provided he can get on base enough. I think the fielding needs to be considered in this case.

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    • College Ball

    TheDean

    Provisional Member

    Jacque Jones had a good glove, otherwise after almost a decade of Kubel, Delmon and Willingham, I'm happy to give Schafer a shot out in left, provided he can get on base enough. I think the fielding needs to be considered in this case.

     

    Definitely.  Fielding and also speed on the basepaths.  The fact is that he'll likely have trouble getting on base like he did last year in a Twins uniform.  However, when he does get on base, he almost automatically scores on a well-hit ball. He is obviously quite proficient at wreaking havoc on opposing batteries trying to hold him at 1B.  That's a worthwhile skillset that I'm willing to put in LF on a regular basis until something better comes along (whether through FA or promotion).

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    • Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Willihammer

    Provisional Member

    Seems like a great defensive replacement, pinch runner to have on the bench. He should not be in competition with Hicks or Rosario for a roster spot, IMO.

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    • Cedar Rapids Kernels

    jorgenswest

    Verified Member

    I am not as confident in his defense.

     

    The anecdotal evidence when he arrived was that he took poor jumps and poor routes to the ball. In a different forum discussion, I had shown quotes from the local papers and blogs describing his defensive shortcomings.

     

    I should dig it up again but to summarize...

     

    The Braves were quoted saying that Bonifacio would be an upgrade in the OF. Bonifacio is at best average in the OF. Brave blogger Biggentleben wrote on Twins Daily about his defensive shortcomings in August. The Crawfishboxes wrote of how his tools didn't match the reality of his defensive performance while he was with the Astros.

     

    This time the metrics back up the eyes of the reporters. Both his DRS and UZR are significantly negative in CF with over 2000 innings. In LF they are negative but near enough to 0.

     

    I am sure a discussion of lack of trust in metrics will follow. That would be fine if they were in conflict with the reports of his performance with the Astros and Braves. For a fourth OF, his defense would be passable if combined with the bat of a corner OF. That isn't the case.

     

    He brings a small hope of a significantly improved bat to go with the certainty of his base stealing and a possibly adequate glove. Coming up through the minors he showed all of the tools. His tools have yet to materialize in the performance of his bat or glove.

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    • Cedar Rapids Kernels

    jorgenswest

    Verified Member

    Seems reasonable hope as comp to Tyner. He also played 212 games in AAA in his first two years as a a Twin. Schafer would need to be DFA'd (for the third time) to give the Twins that flexibility.

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    • Minnesota Twins

    Hosken Bombo Disco

    Community Leader

    I will let you interpret the defensive ratings, though playing LF last year we Schafer get to fly balls that no one had gotten to in years. Though I admit I did not see every game he played in. At the minimum I am pulling for Schafer to win a 4th outfielder role and regular late inning pinch runner and defensive replacement (Arcia). 

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    • Draft Eligible

    MileHighTwinsFan

    Verified Member

    Seems like the game is beginning to move in Schaefer's direction.  It appears that speed on the base paths and in the field are becoming more highly valued.

     

    Schaefer, while not in the league of a Jarrod Dyson, provides a similar profile.  A late inning pinch runner who can then move to the outfield as a defensive replacement for Arcia.  

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