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2014 Post-mortem--Kyle Gibson


stringer bell

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Kyle Gibson started the 2014 season in the Twins rotation and stayed in the rotation the entire season. He won 13 games, the most by a homegrown pitcher for the Twins since Kevin Slowey won 13 in 2010. Gibson had 10 starts in 2013 and was pretty much ineffective. He had a strong spring training and his competitors for the fifth spot did not. Gibson started 31 games, missing one turn for back spasms.

 

Gibson's performance was wildly uneven. At midseason, he had racked up several outstanding starts and quite a few "no-chance" outings where the team was out of the game before Gibson left the mound, often in the early innings. Kyle sputtered late in the season, going from August 19 to September 23 without a quality start. His overall numbers are underwhelming, a 4.47 ERA, despite a 3.80 FIP, only 107 strikeouts and 56 walks. Gibson yielded only 12 homers and consistently induced a high percentage of ground ball outs.

 

What has surprised me about Gibson is his lack of command. He throws a lot of pitches outside the strike zone and when hitters have the count advantage, they don't chase. Gibson's 92-94 mph fastball doesn't get by many hitters when they are ahead of the count. When he is hitting his spots, he can be extremely tough. Gibson allowed slightly less hits than innings pitched. His strikeout numbers increased as the season wore on, but ended up among the lowest among qualifiers.

 

Most have granted Gibson a rotation spot for 2015. I would expect that he will be starting for the Twins in their first series. He threw almost 180 innings without any arm issues, and finished the tail end of the season strongly. Gibson turns 27 this month, so he's not really a young player.

 

Most TD posters have labeled Gibson as a mid-rotation guy. I have always thought that he could be better than that. He has demonstrated dominating stuff when he has good command and Gibson is enough of a student to figure it out and become more consistent. I expect improvement for Gibson, in part because the team will improve and probably have a better defense behind him next year and in the years to come.

 

I think Gibson will be a part of the Twins rotation when they are a playoff team. I expect he'll be a #1 or #2 by then.

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Stringer, you said something I've been thinking for a time now but was hesitant to actually say, the fact that Gibson might end up a top of the rotation starter, #1 or 2.

 

I dismiss 2013 entirely. Despite calls to call him up early before he shot all his bullets....NEVER understood that analogy...I thought the Twins handled him well, following his surgery rehab, working things out, stretching out, simply building up innings and endurance. Ryan and Gardenhire would never admit it, but I thought his rather lousy 2013 with the big league club was about learning, working, and building himself up.

 

I've listened to games and watched games when Gibson was at his best and his worst. Despite all the inconsistencies he showed this past season, his final numbers and W-L record show that he was more good than bad in his "rookie" season. And really, he was a rookie save for a couple innings pitched in '13.

 

It would be trite to say that when Gibson was ON he looked anywhere from good to almost dominating. You could say that about almost any pitcher couldn't you? Except, when Gibson was ON, which was more often than he was "off", you could see real flashes. Flashes that passed the eye and gut test to tell you that if he could just figure out a couple things, if he could just find a little more consistency, there was something there just ready to take charge.

 

If Gibson does what I think he will do, what I believe you also think he will do, he will plant himself just behind Hughes at some point soon as the Twins second best SP, ahead of a healthy Nolasco. Or possibly as the Twins #3 SP if there is a big trade or FA target.

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Not sure Gibson is a front of the rotation guy, not a true ace. He could be the Twins ace two years from now when Hughes is gone, but being a team's #1 and being a true #1 aren't necessarily the same thing.

 

That being said, I agree that Gibson can and should improve. We saw him make strong strides from 2013 into 2014, and I except him to continue to improve in 2015. We may not see more GREAT starts from him, but hopefully he can turn some of his clunker starts into mediocre starts. If he can do that, we'll see vastly improved numbers from him after next season, and he'll have securely lived up to being a solid mid-rotation guy who flashes glimpses of something better. I'm just not convinced he'll ever become consistently elite.

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Unless Gibson can increase his K rate, I'm not sure he can become elite.  He needs to develop an offspeed pitch he can get K's with.  Radke struck out guys at a higher rate earlier in his career at a time when guys didn't strike out much.  Being that he is already 27, I'm not sure how much upside he has from here.  He can be a solid #3, with #2 upside if he can develop an "out" pitch.

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