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Terry Ryan: Still Employed


Twins Fan From Afar

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2014

Kevin Correia. 23 starts. 4.94 ERA.

Johan Pino. 11 starts. 5.07 ERA.

Sam Deduno. 8 starts. 4.6 ERA.

Anthony Swarzak. 4 starts. 4.6 ERA.

Logan Darnell. 4 starts. 7.13 ERA.

Mike Pelfrey. 5 starts. 7.99 ERA.

Tommy Milone. 5 starts. 7.03 ERA.

Kris Johnson. 3 starts. 4.73 ERA.

 

2013

Mike Pelfrey. 29 starts. 5.19 ERA.

Scott Diamond. 24 starts. 5.43 ERA.

Pedro Hernandez. 12 starts. 6.83 ERA.

Liam Hendriks. 8 starts. 6.85 ERA.

PJ Walters. 8 starts. 5.95 ERA.

Cole De Vries. 2 starts. 10.80 ERA.

 

2012

Nick Blackburn. 19 starts. 7.39 ERA.

Liam Hendriks. 16 starts. 5.59 ERA.

Anthony Swarzak. 5 starts. 5.03 ERA.

Carl Pavano. 11 starts. 6.00 ERA.

PJ Walters. 12 starts. 5.69 ERA.

Jason Marquis. 7 starts. 8.47 ERA.

Esmerling Vasquez. 6 starts. 5.68 ERA.

 

Ron Gardenhire took the fall yesterday for 4 seasons of disgusting baseball. That decision was correct. Baseball is a business. And lately, business hasn't been good for the Twins. After the press conference, I was left thinking, "well, that was pretty good as far as those things go. Very Minnesotan, really. But why the hell does Terry Ryan still have a job?" And it's still bothering me today.

 

As Gardy and Ryan both noted, the reason the manager got canned is because the team didn't win enough games. For sure, Gardy was a contributor to that. Guys were played out of position, he refuses to platoon players, the Twins are among the least likely teams to shift defensively, he uses his closer in a very limited, sometimes non-sensical role, and I have huge concerns about his ability to handle player injuries. Those are just a few things, though. Sure, maybe those decisions cost the Twins 3, 4, 5 games a year. Maybe more. Maybe less. Tough to tell. But the point is, a manager's role in the playing of the game itself is limited.

 

I keep going back to Terry Ryan. Gardy's job was not to set the roster; it was to play the players on the roster. A "field manager." Take a look at the motley crew of pitchers, games started, and ERAs that I listed above (note: for guys that both started and relieved, I just used their combined ERA -- but you get the picture; note also, I didn't include guys like Trevor May or Ricky Nolasco, who were bad this season but should improve -- there's a difference between a prospect like May learning the big leagues, or a veteran like Nolasco having a career-awful year, and Cole De Vries.). For 2012, that list accounts for 76/162 starts; for 2013 it was 83 starts; and for 2014 it was 63 starts. Those are huge chunks of the season where the Twins were trotting out starting pitchers (sometimes relievers masked as starters) who gave the team little chance to win. That failure is not on Ron Gardenhire. There's no way that Gardy said, after a bunch of awful starts, "Terry, I just know Jason Marquis is gonna turn the corner. Give him more time." Or, "Pedro Hernandez -- I need that guy starting right now!" Are you kidding?!?! I'm sure Gardy lost tons of sleep over his team's pathetic starting pitching, which, incidentally, continually wore down what may have been decent bullpens. Yes, Gardy defends his players publicly, but what manager wouldn't want great starting pitching? What manager wouldn't beg his general manager for help as his team gets shelled every night?

 

I know what you're thinking: I've completely forgotten the part of the narrative where Bill Smith ruined the organization and Terry Ryan is rebuilding it, and where Ryan is one of the best baseball minds out there. But if there's one thing Ryan can be faulted for, it's failing to draft/develop/acquire better-than-average starting pitching -- and this goes back quite some time, long before Bill Smith. A team can either draft, trade for (other otherwise acquire through the Rule 5 draft, for instance), or sign players as free agents. The Twins have always needed better starting pitching. For the love of God, Brian Duensing started playoff games! Ryan, by and large, has failed to get his manager good pitching. The team, understandably, is reluctant to part with prospects, the best prospects are just now beginning to get to the majors (note that the Twins did not draft May or Alex Meyer), and it wasn't until last off-season that Ryan went out on the free agent market to spend real money. Too little. Too late. For Gardy, at least.

 

Look again at that list. 76 starts. 83 starts. 63 starts. Just for fun, imagine that, in just 20 of those starts each year, the Twins had a starting pitcher who could go 6 innings and give you a 3.5 or 4.0 ERA. I'm not even talking about a superstar. Just a better-than-average pitcher. Might the Twins win half those games? Perhaps. Imagine what another 10 wins would have made you think about the Twins' 2014 season. 80 wins and 82 losses sounds a hell of a lot better than 70-92.

 

In the end, Gardy had to go. He was past his prime, the Twins have a bunch of young guys coming up, and sometimes change for the sake of change is reason enough. But I can't get over the feeling that Ryan somehow is coming off unscathed in this mess, as if he has lifetime tenure, when in reality the Twins' record is as much a reflection on him as it is on Gardy.

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First of all, Gardy on the job 13 years, Ryan 3 years.

Secondly, I stated this opinion months ago and it remains the same:

2011 Bill Smith is blamed and fired. 2012 still blaming Smith. No improvement in 2013, blame the players for lack of improvement. 2014 blame the manager and coaching for lack of improvement (oor at least enough improvement) and 2015 you blame the GM. It's the natural progression. I don't see him off the hook, I see him at the end of his leash and next year better be different or he's next.

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It is really hard for me to come to a clear justified belief on Terry Ryan. I agree with the main direction of this article, but then there is the youth movement and the development there coupled with some very solid moves by Ryan. It's like there needs to be a co-GM or something. A guy like Ryan and then a guy who never lets useless (prospect and talent-wise) pitchers take up so many innings.

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I have to wonder how the dynamic plays out in general . . . like what influence does a pitching coach have on the decisions made by a GM? Worley should never have been allowed to go and the Liriano situation is totally disgusting.
 

If I were the owner, I probably would have totally cleaned house last year. As in totally, save for some promises to Molitor, Brunansky, Glynn, Cuellar, and Johnson.

 

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One of the more enjoyable "The roster isn't Gardy's fault!" posts I've read.

As to the Gardy/Ryan/Both? Conversation, I think TR's judged by more than just the record on the field, whereas Gardy can't point towards Cedar Rapids' success during his performance review.

 

It's important to look at what Ryan inherited (readers can read that as "reclaimed" if it means we can skip the "How much power did Bill Smith really have?" conversation)

Minor Leagues:
A farm system ranked 22nd by BP that was highlighted by a Sano who was considered dubious in position and potentailly makeup, Rosario and Joe Benson. The top pitcher in the system was Alex Wimmers-and even he was a worse prospect than a thoroughly unimpressive Levi Michael. Of all the players in AAA the year prior, only Trevor Plouffe put up a statline that would make someone take notice-and he'd already moved up to the next level. Were it not for Sano, this system may have ranked 30th and that could have been generous.

Major Leagues:

Injuries and poor performance had sapped Mauer, Morneau, Liriano, Young and Baker, the only well-performing veterans who hadn't left in FA of their Value. Even Span was low enough that Bowden reporting "sources" suggesting Storen and Lomardozzi (the Nats' version of "Duensing and Swarzak!") wasn't laughed out of the room when he posted it for ESPN.

 

The only "rookie" in 2011 who seemed like he could be a part of the future was the September Sample Sizing Parm. Plouffe was old for his age (#Yogi) and looked like he might end up as average with the bat while being a butcher in the field.

 

At the end of 2014?

MiLB: BP's top system in baseball (only the Cubs and Houston increased their standing by double digits during that time period. For those who'd like to give credit to picking 2nd, recall that Buxton was far from a lock at the time-especially for an organization flush with toolsy HS OFs and in desperate need of front line pitching). Potential Impact prospects up the middle, in the corners and on the mound-with ceiling and depth at each slot.

MLB: 

Santana, Vargas and Arcia show promise (Pinto as well, if he can learn to call a game), Hughes and Gibson are actual major league pitchers, Dozier has GG caliber defense and an above-average bat at 2B and Plouffe is thoroughly average (in the best possible sense).

The TL;DR? Ryan can point to organizational overhaul when he's asked why he should keep his job. The responsibility scope of Manager doesn't allow Gardy to do that. 

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Great, great comments.

A note on the farm system: I never meant to slight the good work that TR (and staff) have done there. Yes, it's arguably about the best system in baseball. 2 things about that, though. First, the farm system is in great shape, in large part, because the Twins have had top 5 picks every round for 3 seasons. Byron Buxton was a great pick, of course, but as Gleeman noted, he was also a "gift" for being the second worst team in baseball. Second, thought TR has done great things with the system, you cannot simply eschew one thing (mlb level pitching) in favor of another (stocking the system) when there are financial resources in place to do better. And everything I have read indicates that there was more money available. If you add up (just spitballing) money spent on guys like Pelfrey, Marquis and Correia, you might end up with a decent pitcher.

 

Again, great thought-provoking comments.

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When given lemons, make lemonade, right? The thing is, Marquis did turn it around - after he left the Twins. Worley did turn it around - after he left the Twins. The Royals still like Liam Hendricks. I thought Liriano was having one last lucky season in 2013, but nope, he sort of backed it up in 2014 with a season similar to 2010, even if the W-L wasn't as sexy. The Twins wanted Liriano to cut down the walks and pitch to contact. For Liriano that approach was a disaster. Gardy and Andy never gave up the pitch-to-contact philosophy, and teams were feasting. I think Gardy can hook on somewhere but only if he's willing to change his stripes a little, and another GM might give pause if Gardy insists on bringing Anderson. 

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Great, great comments.

A note on the farm system: I never meant to slight the good work that TR (and staff) have done there. Yes, it's arguably about the best system in baseball. 2 things about that, though. First, the farm system is in great shape, in large part, because the Twins have had top 5 picks every round for 3 seasons. Byron Buxton was a great pick, of course, but as Gleeman noted, he was also a "gift" for being the second worst team in baseball. Second, thought TR has done great things with the system, you cannot simply eschew one thing (mlb level pitching) in favor of another (stocking the system) when there are financial resources in place to do better. And everything I have read indicates that there was more money available. If you add up (just spitballing) money spent on guys like Pelfrey, Marquis and Correia, you might end up with a decent pitcher.

 

Again, great thought-provoking comments.

 

1. Having good pick position doesn't mean you end up making the right pick. Buxton wasn't a "can't lose" pick. I thought it was pretty gutsy....kind of like Kohl Stewart.

 

2. I can't hold the lack of pitcher signings against Terry at this point. Unless I got paid a ridiculous sum of money (way, way over the top), I wouldn't want to pitch in Minnesota.

 

I just can't bring myself to a position where I say Terry isn't doing a good job yet (unless it was his idea to keep Bartlett on....then get out the pitchforks....)

 

I enjoyed the article though. 

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