http://i.imgur.com/33FOlc8.jpg

Control. It comes down to control. Before 2012, Tommy Milone's BB/9 had always been below the 1.71 that he posted in his first full season in the majors with the exception of one season at A+ ball in 2009. He pitched to a 13-10 record that year, a 3.74 ERA, and a 2.8 WAR that was indiciative of a solid mid to back end of the rotation arm. He even was seeing some decent K/9 numbers for a guy who throws as soft as he does (6.5 K/9). In 2013, his BB/9 jumped to it's highest levels of his professional career, at 2.2, but he also saw an increase in his K/9, to 7.3. His ERA bounced up to 4.14, but he still went 12-9, and still looked like a decent option for the back end of a rotation. Through July of 2014, his BB/9 took another jump to 2.4, and he saw a dip in his K/9. His ERA, however, dropped to 3.55, the lowest of his major league career. His FIP however, was up to 4.41, only slightly less than his 2013 levels of 4.62.

Then he got traded to the Twins.....

Coming into tonight, his BB/9 since donning the Twins uniform was at 3.7, and that jumped to 4.8 after tonight's 4 walks. He only threw 57% of his pitches for strikes, and that's despite having some very good swinging strike rates, particularly on his change up. But you can almost see the very moment when he runs into his problems. He starts the game out, retiring 5 straight. The common theme? All 5 at bats started with a called strike with his fastball. In fact, of his first 27 pitches, 19 were strikes (5 Called strikes, 7 foul balls, 2 swinging strikes, and 5 balls put into play). Then comes Michael Taylor. Ball 1. Ball 2. Ball 3. Get me over strike. Ball 4. Then Tyler Flowers. Ball 1. Strike 1. Ball 2. Ball 3. Two run home run. The next two batters got hits on 3 pitches total, then another 5 pitch walk before inducing a flyball from Alexei Ramirez to get out of the inning.

Of the 20 batters that Milone faced, he got strike 1 on 8 of them. Here's how his first pitches broke down

http://i.imgur.com/ryg926g.jpg

It's of note that the Swinging strike on the first pitch change up came in the last at bat of the 2nd inning when his fastball command had all but disappeared and he got aggressive Alexi to offer at it. He has to be able to get his secondary pitches over the plate for strike one on a more consistent basis. Missing on the edges with his fastball is fine, but if he can't consistently put his off-speed pitches over for strikes, hitters will sit fastball, and he will get into trouble.