40-man roster considerations
Entry posted by Shane Wahl ·
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Soon it will be time to consider who should be dropped and added to the Twins 40-man roster for next season. This time there could be more of an upheaval than normal as the Twins hopefully look to enter the next phase of the organization's rebuilding project.
Some opening remarks
I have to believe that the following players could or should be removed from the 40-man roster for next season:
Jared Burton
Sam Deduno
Brian Duensing
Edgar Ibarra
Yohan Pino
Anthony Swarzak
Caleb Thielbar
Eric Fryer
Chris Colabello
Pedro Florimon
Eduardo Nunez/Chris Parmelee/Jordan Schafer
I am sure that there are legitimate reasons for keeping each of these players except for Burton and likely Colabello. There are three lefty relievers in this group, but none of them are really overwhelming talents. Most of these players are getting on in age and there are a number of younger replacements waiting in the wings. The triple slash at the end would probably depend on what is valued most: a righty bat, a lefty bat, or speed.
Supposing no new additions
Let's suppose for now (because the speculation derails this entire issue) that the Twins do not add any free agents to compete for 40-man roster space (though James Shields or Ervin Santana could be nice additions). This is probably unlikely because it would seem that the Twins would add somebody but it doesn't really matter for now, especially since I am leaving one spot open.
Two spots taken back
Add Mike Pelfrey back from the 60-day DL (that ridiculous contract is going to mean he is involved somehow, likely as a long relief option replacing Deduno)
Also keep in mind that the Twins might like to keep a spot open on the 40 man, so we are talking about adding nine players to the 40 man roster. Keeping one spot open makes sense for making waiver claims or other transactions without having to remove someone else already on the roster.
Top eligible players for consideration
Here are 21 players that I would say are the most likely to be considered as additions:
A.J. Achter, Jason Adam, James Beresford, Sean Gilmartin, Niko Goodrum, Deolis Guerra, Tyler Jones, Cole Johnson, Mike Kvasnicka, Brett Lee, Aderlin Mejia, Alex Meyer, Levi Michael, Lester Oliveros, Danny Ortiz, Deibinson Romero, Eddie Rosario, Adrian Salcedo, Miguel Sano, Jason Wheeler, and Alex Wimmers
Sano, Rosario, and Meyer are locks, so this knocks it down to six of the remaining 18 players. I think that some of these players are quite safe from being taken in the rule 5 due to either age, level, or performance issues (or both/all). They are: Goodrum, Kvasnicka, and Mejia. Another group that would seem to be safe would be Beresford, Lee, Michael, Salcedo, Wheeler, and Wimmers. The first group are players with glaring issues to be worked out and the second group, while having some big names, just doesn't have anyone who I would think teams would use for a 25-man roster spot for the season. Salcedo and Wimmers could be exceptions, but that would be pretty risky for teams to stick them in the bullpen for an entire season.
Who's left?
There are then nine players left to consider: Achter, Adam, Gilmartin, Guerra, Johnson, Jones, Oliveros, Ortiz, and Romero. The Twins are likely going to just risk Romero again and not worry if he gets selected. He is a good hitter, but is behind Plouffe and Sano right now. I also think that the Twins keeping Tyler Jones in Fort Myers will keep him safe as teams would be shy from taking that risk. There are then seven players to consider. On the Johan Santana trade principle, I think the Twins protect Guerra and give him a rotation spot trial in spring training. A.J. Achter, then, is the most likely candidate to be risked since the Twins seemingly don't like him all that much.
The Nine
The nine players that I see the Twins adding are Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, Eddie Rosario, Sean Gilmartin, Danny Ortiz, Lester Oliveros, Cole Johnson, Deolis Guerra, and Jason Adam. There are two super prospects and one very good prospect. Gilmartin and Adam are solid 6th starter options who are still young and could improve. Ortiz is a 4th OF candidate for the Twins and for other teams, and the Twins cannot afford to lose any more OF prospects at the moment. Guerra is Johan trade material and on that principle alone should get a chance to replace a Jared Burton. Oliveros and Johnson (lefty) are striking people out this year and should be making the team out of spring training to replace Swarzak and Duensing.
Personally, I like Beresford and Romero and would rather risk relievers, but I am trying to provide a balance here between what I would do and what the Twins will likely do.
Conclusion
I think this leaves the Twins in a good position. This would make for 39 players on the roster and sheds some aging replacement level players for actual prospects and actual young minor leaguers who could move up prospect lists. Lester Oliveros and Cole Johnson could join Michael Tonkin in anchoring the bullpen with Fien and Perkins (leaving Guerra and Pelfrey to fill the bullpen out). Sano, Meyer, and Rosario are close enough to not worry about option years at all. Danny Ortiz is a viable 4th OF option. Gilmartin and Adam provide depth for the starting rotation.
There will be more changes coming if players like Byron Buxton, Nick Burdi, and J.O. Berrios emerge next season, but I think this provides a nice framework for understanding how the 40-man roster could shape up in the offseason.
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