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Twins top 19 position prospects as ranked by JAVIER

Willihammer

Entry posted by Willihammer ·

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Over at Beyond The Boxscore, Chris St John revealed a system for predicting major league success of minor leaguers based on prospect age and level. The system is called JAVIER (named after Cubs SS prospect Javier Baez), and you can read about it here. The system predicts whether a prospect will bust, have an average career, or be a productive player (defined as having at least 1000 MLB PAs and producing at least 0.0275 VORP per PA - read about VORP here), based on a dataset of 41,238 player-seasons between the years 1978 and 2013.

 

In part 2 of St John's reveal, he gives us is a tool where you can input a prospect's age, level, zBB, zK, and zISO values to see how they compare, historically, against all prospects with similar plate discipline and power at a given age/level.

 

So I inputed the values of the top Twins position prospects in the 2013 minor league season (prospects taken from Seth Stoh's top 50 list ). Where prospects split time between two leagues, I used the values from the league where he logged the most PAs. I inputed the player's age as listed on baseball-reference's Minor's page as the minimum of the age range, and their age + 1 as the maximum. I inputed zBB, zK, and zISO values that were +/- one standard deviation. The results are below.

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 396]

Player

Productive

Average

Bust

Total

Avg MLB PA

Avg MLB VORP

Aaron Hicks

[TD=align: right]17

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=align: right]98[/TD]

[TD=align: right]146[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1137[/TD]

[TD=align: right]44[/TD]

Adam Brett Walker

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=align: right]46[/TD]

[TD=align: right]624[/TD]

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

Brian Navarreto

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=align: right]148[/TD]

[TD=align: right]176[/TD]

[TD=align: right]571[/TD]

[TD=align: right]52[/TD]

Byron Buxton

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[TD=align: right]44[/TD]

[TD=align: right]65[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1428[/TD]

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

Dalton Hicks

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]210[/TD]

[TD=align: right]221[/TD]

[TD=align: right]166[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

Danny Ortiz

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: right]64[/TD]

[TD=align: right]447[/TD]

[TD=align: right]535[/TD]

[TD=align: right]558[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

Danny Santana

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

[TD=align: right]57[/TD]

[TD=align: right]328[/TD]

[TD=align: right]402[/TD]

[TD=align: right]636[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

Eddie Rosario

[TD=align: right]41[/TD]

[TD=align: right]85[/TD]

[TD=align: right]278[/TD]

[TD=align: right]404[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1222[/TD]

[TD=align: right]38[/TD]

JD Williams

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]160[/TD]

[TD=align: right]178[/TD]

[TD=align: right]433[/TD]

[TD=align: right]38[/TD]

Jorge Polanco

[TD=align: right]43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]57[/TD]

[TD=align: right]152[/TD]

[TD=align: right]252[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1620[/TD]

[TD=align: right]77[/TD]

Josmil Pinto

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

[TD=align: right]203[/TD]

[TD=align: right]233[/TD]

[TD=align: right]442[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

Kennys Vargas

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]248[/TD]

[TD=align: right]280[/TD]

[TD=align: right]414[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30[/TD]

Levi Michael

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]18[/TD]

[TD=align: right]268[/TD]

[TD=align: right]299[/TD]

[TD=align: right]297[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

Max Kepler

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

[TD=align: right]118[/TD]

[TD=align: right]160[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1065[/TD]

[TD=align: right]63[/TD]

Miguel Sano*

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4213[/TD]

[TD=align: right]243[/TD]

Mike Kvasnicka

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]230[/TD]

[TD=align: right]233[/TD]

[TD=align: right]67[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

Niko Goodrum

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=align: right]207[/TD]

[TD=align: right]227[/TD]

[TD=align: right]309[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

Stuart Turner

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]306[/TD]

[TD=align: right]318[/TD]

[TD=align: right]154[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33[/TD]

Travis Harrison

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]69[/TD]

[TD=align: right]87[/TD]

[TD=align: right]876[/TD]

[TD=align: right]54[/TD]

Zach Larson

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=align: right]175[/TD]

[TD=align: right]198[/TD]

[TD=align: right]459[/TD]

[TD=align: right]49[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Sano stands out right away - he kinda breaks the projection. Only two batters in St John's dataset fall within a standard deviation of Sano's plate discpipline and power profile as a 20 year old in AA. They are Jose Canseco and Randy Johnson (not that Randy Johnson). So his JAVIER projection is pretty useless due to SSS.

 

We can re-rank the Twins top position prospects in a number of ways. Here they are in order of Productive%:

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 340]

Player

Productive

Total

Productive %

[TD=align: right]1

Jorge Polanco

[TD=align: right]43

[TD=align: right]252[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17.06%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

Byron Buxton

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=align: right]65[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15.38%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

Travis Harrison

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=align: right]87[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13.79%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

Max Kepler

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

[TD=align: right]160[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13.13%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

Aaron Hicks

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

[TD=align: right]146[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11.64%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

Eddie Rosario

[TD=align: right]41[/TD]

[TD=align: right]404[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10.15%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

Brian Navarreto

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]176[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9.09%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

Adam Brett Walker

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]46[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8.70%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

Zach Larson

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]198[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6.57%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

JD Williams

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[TD=align: right]178[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6.18%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

Kennys Vargas

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]280[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.71%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

Josmil Pinto

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]233[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.58%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

Danny Ortiz

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: right]535[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.49%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

Niko Goodrum

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=align: right]227[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.41%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15[/TD]

Levi Michael

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]299[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.35%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

Danny Santana

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

[TD=align: right]402[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.23%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

Dalton Hicks

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]221[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.71%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]18[/TD]

Stuart Turner

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]318[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.26%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]19[/TD]

Mike Kvasnicka

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]233[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.86%[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Ranked in order of highest average VORP at the MLB level, the top 19 are:

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 293]

Player

Avg MLB PA

Avg MLB VORP

[TD=align: right]1

Byron Buxton

[TD=align: right]1428

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

Jorge Polanco

[TD=align: right]1620[/TD]

[TD=align: right]77[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

Max Kepler

[TD=align: right]1065[/TD]

[TD=align: right]63[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

Travis Harrison

[TD=align: right]875.7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]53.9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

Brian Navarreto

[TD=align: right]570.9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]51.9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

Zach Larson

[TD=align: right]458.8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]49.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

Aaron Hicks

[TD=align: right]1137[/TD]

[TD=align: right]44[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

JD Williams

[TD=align: right]433.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]38.3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

Eddie Rosario

[TD=align: right]1222[/TD]

[TD=align: right]38[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

Stuart Turner

[TD=align: right]153.8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

Adam Brett Walker

[TD=align: right]624.3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30.5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

Kennys Vargas

[TD=align: right]414.4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30.3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

Levi Michael

[TD=align: right]297.4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

Niko Goodrum

[TD=align: right]308.5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15[/TD]

Josmil Pinto

[TD=align: right]442.4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

Danny Ortiz

[TD=align: right]558.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

Danny Santana

[TD=align: right]635.6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16.9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]18[/TD]

Dalton Hicks

[TD=align: right]166[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]19[/TD]

Mike Kvasnicka

[TD=align: right]66.55[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10.92[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Ranked in order of lease likely to bust, the top 19 are:

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 345]

Player

Bust

Total

Bust%

[TD=align: right]1

Jorge Polanco

[TD=align: right]152

[TD=align: right]252[/TD]

[TD=align: right]60.32%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

Aaron Hicks

[TD=align: right]98[/TD]

[TD=align: right]146[/TD]

[TD=align: right]67.12%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

Byron Buxton

[TD=align: right]44[/TD]

[TD=align: right]65[/TD]

[TD=align: right]67.69%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

Eddie Rosario

[TD=align: right]278[/TD]

[TD=align: right]404[/TD]

[TD=align: right]68.81%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

Max Kepler

[TD=align: right]118[/TD]

[TD=align: right]160[/TD]

[TD=align: right]73.75%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

Travis Harrison

[TD=align: right]69[/TD]

[TD=align: right]87[/TD]

[TD=align: right]79.31%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

Danny Santana

[TD=align: right]328[/TD]

[TD=align: right]402[/TD]

[TD=align: right]81.59%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

Danny Ortiz

[TD=align: right]447[/TD]

[TD=align: right]535[/TD]

[TD=align: right]83.55%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

Brian Navarreto

[TD=align: right]148[/TD]

[TD=align: right]176[/TD]

[TD=align: right]84.09%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

Adam Brett Walker

[TD=align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=align: right]46[/TD]

[TD=align: right]84.78%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

Josmil Pinto

[TD=align: right]203[/TD]

[TD=align: right]233[/TD]

[TD=align: right]87.12%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

Zach Larson

[TD=align: right]175[/TD]

[TD=align: right]198[/TD]

[TD=align: right]88.38%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

Kennys Vargas

[TD=align: right]248[/TD]

[TD=align: right]280[/TD]

[TD=align: right]88.57%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

Levi Michael

[TD=align: right]268[/TD]

[TD=align: right]299[/TD]

[TD=align: right]89.63%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15[/TD]

JD Williams

[TD=align: right]160[/TD]

[TD=align: right]178[/TD]

[TD=align: right]89.89%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

Niko Goodrum

[TD=align: right]207[/TD]

[TD=align: right]227[/TD]

[TD=align: right]91.19%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

Dalton Hicks

[TD=align: right]210[/TD]

[TD=align: right]221[/TD]

[TD=align: right]95.02%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]18[/TD]

Stuart Turner

[TD=align: right]306[/TD]

[TD=align: right]318[/TD]

[TD=align: right]96.23%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]19[/TD]

Mike Kvasnicka

[TD=align: right]230[/TD]

[TD=align: right]233[/TD]

[TD=align: right]98.71%[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

You get the idea.

 

In part 3 you can compare players by minor league careers (rather than single seasons). A blog for another day maybe.

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9 Comments

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ericchri

Interesting to see how well Kepler and Harrison are stacking up in these. The sudden onrush of decent pitching prospects in our system has seemed to push those two a little into the afterthoughts category with a lot of us.

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Willihammer

@ tarheel, all I did was input the Twins prospects' PA, AB, 2B, 3B, HR values into the tool on the beyondtheboxscore site (linked above), to produce zK, zBB, and zISO values which I then plugged into St John's other tool (sounds dirtier than it was). The tool based on the 41,000 minor league player seasons. That produced the probabilities described above.

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