In Abreu's defense

Small sample size

Upside?

Yippee, I won the lottery.

It took a year for the teams to learn Cespedes's tendencies and how to attack the weak points. Abreu should be able to kill mistake pitches and thus continue to make a living.

In Abreu's defense

Small sample size

Upside?

Yippee' date=' I won the lottery.

It took a year for the teams to learn Cespedes's tendencies and how to attack the weak points. Abreu should be able to kill mistake pitches and thus continue to make a living.[/quote']

 

Yeah. I think you're right. Who ultimately knows how 'good' (or bad) he ends up being. In Cuba he played in the equivalent of Low-A ball competition. But he did kill it there.

 

Great point on Cespedes. He did pretty well his first year. But hit, what .240 in his 2nd year?

 

I could see Abreu hitting 28-35 HRs and hitting around .240-.275 with 150-180 Ks.

 

Which, I think Miguel Sano could do exactly that next year as well assuming he was the Twins' opening day starting 3B.

Question:

Which would have given most of the Twins fans on here the bigger jolt. The signing of Abreu or Mike Napoli?

In a bigger sample of Serie Nacional games, Abreu compares favorably to some of the best players of this decade. For example, Puig posted a .330/.431/.581 line, to Cespedes' .333/.424/.667, to Abreu's .453/.597/.986 in 2009-2010 (the last year they all played together). That's better than a .400 lead in OPS over Cespedes, for anyone counting at home. Note: Cespedes and Abreu held or shared the lead in nearly every major hitting category that year.

And Abreu hasn't let off the gas since. This guy just mashes.

In a bigger sample of Serie Nacional games' date=' Abreu compares favorably to some of the best players of this decade. For example, Puig posted a .330/.431/.581 line, to Cespedes' .333/.424/.667, to Abreu's .453/.597/.986 in 2009-2010 (the last year they all played together). That's better than a .400 lead in OPS over Cespedes, for anyone counting at home. Note: Cespedes and Abreu held or shared the lead in nearly every major hitting category that year.

 

And Abreu hasn't let off the gas since. This guy just mashes.[/quote']

That assumes that Cespedes and Abreu have the same swing. By any reports I can find they don't.

Low level competition numbers do not translate to a major league level.

You have to look at mechanics. Most reports say he doesn't have a fast bat. In an era where most teams are getting faster pitchers that does not bode well for him. He will get his hits off the inferior pitchers.

The comparable could be his teammate and countryman Viceido with probably a lower BA. 20 homers with a .250 average. As a DH/1B that would be about a 1.5 WAR.

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN has a great feature article on Jose Abreu.

Seems like most comparisons go along the lines of Viciedo and Morales. Maybe hits more power than Morales, but not as good of a bat.

His walks rates are inflated quite a bit. He didn't walk once in the World Baseball Clinic.

Also, his walk totals are very much inflated by his high IBB totals. This from a Grantland article.

"His stats have been inflated somewhat by intentional walks (a league-leading 32 in 2009-10, and 21 last season) and hit-by-pitches (30 in 2009-10, 21 last season, though Abreu might have an easier time sustaining high HBP numbers than league-leading intentional walk totals in the majors). Even Abreu's hit tool, while playable, might not be superstar-level."

Here's an article by Baseball America that shows how scouts have seen 300 at bats of Jose Abreu.

Scouts Have Extensive History With Jose Abreu - BaseballAmerica.com

I wouldn't get hung up on his walk rate at the WBC or anywhere really. His game is power and to that end his ISO has floated around .400 which is insane.

If Cuba's league is comparable to High A, a .400 ISO would be .080 points better than Giancarlo Stanton or Miguel Sano - and Sano's ~.320 ISO is the best for a season in High A since fangraphs started tracking minor leaguers in 2006.

Re: bat speed -its one part of the equation but not the be all end all. Just look at the various bat speeds from 2013: ESPN Home Run Tracker :: 92013 Top Home Runs, Speed Off Bat - Full List. There are good hitters all over that spectrum.

Force is a product of velocity and mass. Maybe Abreu is swinging a 40 ounce bat in Cuba?