Luis Arraez’s Value Goes Beyond Excellent On-Field Performance
Entry posted by Adam Friedman in Roster Construction ·
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For months, there has been speculation that the Twins may trade Luis Arraez to bolster their rotation. The Twins need at least one controllable starter as they will lose three starters to free agency next season and could definitely use rotation help in 2023.
There are some baseball reasons to trade Arraez, as the Twins have a surplus of left-handed hitters who play corner positions in the infield and outfield. Bringing back Correa makes the infield even more crowded, and the looming additions of Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis make trading Arraez very reasonable on paper.
However, if the Twins trade Luis Arraez, the price has to be right. Beyond his fantastic hitting and solid defense at first, Arraez means so much to the fanbase and clubhouse. If the Twins pull the trigger on an Arraez trade, it must bring back a true frontline starter. Otherwise, you're not getting nearly enough for such a special player and person.
Arraez the Guy
Luis Arraez is fun. Fans love him, and his teammates seem to as well. He plays the game with vigor and joy, and his at bats are appointment-viewing.
You could see his teammate's support for him when he was named an all-star, as they all celebrated with him and were thrilled to enjoy his moment with him. Like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, he is at the heart and soul of this team.
We’ve seen the front office emphasize character more since their failed signings of Lance Lynn and Josh Donaldson. Trading Arraez would be a costly departure from that emphasis.
Arraez, while fun and joyful, is also the consummate professional who, in any interview, will emphasize that, while he enjoys his individual accolades, his top priority is helping the team win.
The Twins' sparkplug isn't all talk, either. Arraez has shown a terrific work ethic during his time with the Twins. In fact, as I write this, he is in the Dominican Republic working on his craft with Nelson Cruz, which you can occasionally watch on Cruz’s Instagram. This work ethic has been vital in establishing himself as a premier hitter in the league after being overlooked as a prospect.
This work ethic and baseball savvy enabled him to find a comfortable home at first base in 2022. Despite being small in stature for a first baseman, he was well above average there in 2022 by Defensive Runs Saved. That is extremely impressive because he had never played first base in the majors before that. His success at first base defensively is a testament to his willingness to do what he needs to do to help the Twins win.
Arraez's character is exceptional, and the Twins will miss it if they trade him.
Arraez the Ballplayer
Beyond the person, Luis Arraez, the player, is awesome. From his aforementioned first base defense to his batting title, he was hugely productive for the Twins in 2022.
Arraez fulfilled his dream of winning a batting title and played in his first career All Star Game. We don’t always put that much value into those accomplishments alone in 2023, but advanced metrics confirm that he had a great season.
The fan-favorite accumulated 3.2 fWAR and a wRC+ of 131, which means he was a 31% above league-average hitter. These topline numbers underscore a terrific player that any team would be lucky to have. Not only that, Fangraphs' Steamer projects him to just about repeat those numbers, projecting a 3.1 fWAR and 126 wRC+ 2023 season.
Digging deeper, Arraez tailed off in the second half of 2022 with a wRC+ of 106. His hamstring ailments, which could be an issue moving forward, held him back. On the flip side, his first-half performance, where he put up a 150 wRC+, indicates that a healthy Arraez can be an elite hitter.
Further, Arraez is your man with runners in scoring position. Arraez hit an unbelievable .366 with RISP in 2022. Success with RISP isn't usually indicative of future performance in these spots, but Arraez's success makes sense, given his approach.
To be clear, Arraez is not a perfect player. He has struggled to stay healthy, can only really play first base, and is a league-average hitter against lefties.
These limitations are legitimate issues with Arraez, but his distinct style is helpful on a team that values slugging as much as the Twins. Beyond just his unusual style for the modern game, Arraez has been highly productive by any metric and should be coveted as a player.
Arraez's Futrue with the Twins
Like everybody in Major League Baseball, everybody has a price that can be paid to trade for their services. In Arraez’s case, that price should be extremely high, and they should be asking for more than Pablo López, who the Twins reportedly have a strong interest in acquiring.
If they are adamant about trading Arraez for a starting pitcher, they should bundle Arraez and a couple of good prospects to get a true frontline starter. It’s hard to predict trades, but some guys who could be available if they went that route could be Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, or Nestor Cortes.
We will see if any pitchers of that caliber become available before spring training, and if they do, the Twins would be sensible to trade Arraez for a true frontline starter. They cannot trade him for anything less. Before pulling the trigger on any Arraez trade, the front office must take stock of what he means to the fanbase and clubhouse, on and off the field.
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