Given the copious injuries the Minnesota Twins dealt with last season, one player that was given as ample an opportunity as anyone was center fielder Gilberto Celestino. Unfortunately, he did not exactly take advantage of it, however, it wasn’t a complete failure either. While the season for Celestino probably didn’t go as well as he or the Twins would have hoped, there were positives to take from it. What is the outlook for Celestino going forward? An everyday player? Maybe a platoon player? Strictly a fourth outfielder? Or maybe not even a Major Leaguer? Let’s look at where things currently stand and what could impact his role going forward. 

Let’s start with the most known positive attributes about Celestino. He is still very young and has room for growth, but these are things I feel confident about remaining consistent throughout his career. The first and most apparent quality about Gilberto Celestino is his defense. I believe Celestino is a plus defender in center field and an elite defender in the corners. In 2022 Celestino finished in the 79th percentile in OAA (Outs Above Average) among qualified center fielders and graded above average by DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) at 2 and slightly above average by UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) at 0.3. While Celestino has above-average range in the outfield (0.9 Range Runs Above Average), his primary defensive asset is his arm strength. Celestino has one of the strongest outfield arms in all of baseball; according to Statcast, he finished in the 93rd percentile among qualified outfielders in average arm strength and recorded the third-fastest throw of any player in 2022 at 102.3 MPH. 

The other thing I feel confident about Celestino going forward is his plate discipline. In 2022 Celestino ranked in the 86th percentile in chase% and 63rd percentile in BB%. Now, this may be a bit misleading as Celestino generally doesn’t swing very often. His swing% is under league average at 44.5% (league avg 47.1%), his first pitch swing % is 25.9% (league avg 29.5%), and his meatball swing% is only 69.1% (league average 76.1%). For some context, a meatball is a pitch that touches the middle box of the standard nine-box zone, meaning he takes almost one-third of pitches right down the middle. However, Celestino’s Z-swing% is almost right at league average at 65.7% (league average 66.9%), so while he may trend passive, I think the discipline numbers are real since he seems to swing at pitches in the zone as much as everyone else. We also saw his plate discipline in the minor leagues, as he consistently posted above-league-average walk rates throughout his MiLB career. I believe drawing walks will stick for Gilberto Celestino. 

Let’s look at some things Gilberto Celestino isn’t very good at. Last season Gilberto Celestino was allergic to hitting the ball hard. According to Statcast, he finished the year in the 18th percentile in average exit velocity, 4th percentile in xwOBA, 6th percentile in barrel% (EV of 98 MPH or higher), and 1st percentile in xSLG. If you are familiar with Baseball Savant, that is a lot of blue. If you are into more traditional numbers, this shows in his .238 batting average, .302 SLG, and 15 extra base hits in 347 PA, all functions of quality of contact. I also want to point out his average launch angle was -1.9 degrees, and his GB% as a hitter was 60.6%; the MLB average GB% is 44.9%. While in isolation, soft contact doesn’t inherently make you a bad hitter (see Luis Arraez). In isolation, hitting lots of ground balls doesn’t inherently make you a bad hitter (see DJ LeMahieu). Combining the two isn’t typically a good recipe for quality hitting. So while drawing lots of walks is good, Celestino will have to make some adjustments at the plate if he doesn’t want to be hitting soft ground balls all the time. This does not mean he is destined to be a bad hitter. Celestino has a max exit velocity of 111.4 MPH, good for the 80th percentile in 2021. He has shown the capability for power, and it’s just a matter of translating that more consistently throughout his at-bats. 

The last thing I want to touch on with Gilberto Celestino is his base running. On the surface, nothing stands out about Celestino’s base running abilities, four stolen bases in five attempts is fine, and he ranks in the 65th percentile in sprint speed on Statcast. The conclusion, without further research, is there isn’t a problem here. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Gilberto Celestino is one of the worst base runners in all of baseball. The Twins, as a whole, were 29th in baseball in BsR with -20.7 runs, just ahead of the Washington Nationals, who were at -25.1 runs. The league average is zero. Baserunning Runs (BsR) is a metric from Fangraphs that measures runs generated from stolen bases (wSB), double plays (wGDP), and taking extra bases (UBR). Celestino certainly was a part of the Twins’ malodorous performance in this category, with his BsR finishing at -4.6, third worst on the Twins despite having more than 100 fewer plate appearances than the four players closest to him. His stolen base runs were 0.0, and his wGDP runs were -1.3, but we already touched on his propensity to hit ground balls, so I think that can explain his negative value there.

I want to focus on his UBR, ultimate base running. This statistic measures a player’s ability to take bases in practical situations like going first to third on a single, tag-ups, advancing as the trail runner, avoiding outs, and other situations. I will link a definition page at the bottom. Among players with 300 plate appearances in 2022, Gilberto Celestino was tied for the 19th-lowest UBR score. For some context, he finished tied with Joey Votto, a 39-year-old first baseman. Celestino’s inability to use his speed on the bases can be partially credited to his youth, and hopefully more game experience can help his problem, but some guys never figure it out. Still, if he wants to stay around in the Big Leagues, he will have to improve in this area of the game. 

Being a genuinely good center fielder is a great building block for Celestino, but you cannot be a one-trick pony in the Major Leagues. He will need to either find a way to hit the ball harder more consistently or take advantage of his high walk rate and become a plus base runner (or both ideally) if he wants to be an impact player. Celestino is only 23 years old, so he will have time before the Twins make any significant decisions on his future, but if Cele wants to hang around The Show, he has some work to do. What do you think of Gilberto Celestino? What do you see his role being in not only 2023 but beyond? 

OAA: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average

DRS: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/drs/

UZR: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/

Z-Swing%: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/plate-discipline/

xwOBA:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba#:~:text=Definition,of%20batted%20balls%2C%20Sprint%20Speed.

xSLG:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-slugging-percentage#:~:text=Definition,of%20batted%20balls%2C%20Sprint%20Speed.

BsR, wSB, wGDP, UBR: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/bsr/

RngR (Per Fangraphs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.