Maeda was acquired in early 2020 in the three team trade that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers, He had a career year in 2020, posting his lowest ERA and FIP and his highest ERA+ and K/9 which led to a second place finish in the cy young voting.  For the first time since Johan Santana, it looked like the Twins had found their ace. 

In 2021 however, Maeda was not quite the same. His ERA and WHIP jumped significantly and in September he underwent Tommy John surgery, ending his season. There was some belief that Maeda would return late in the 2022 season to some capacity, but the Twins scaled back his recovery process effectively ending that possibility. 

Given the extra months of recovery, it is expected that Maeda will be available on opening day. At the moment, Maeda slots in as the 3rd or 4th starter in the rotation but that could fluctuate drastically. 

Both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs project Maeda to finish with 70-80 innings pitched which would be substantially lower than his last full season and most likely has him as a long reliever. 

Both websites suggest the Maeda is due for regression even after a disappointing 2021. 

There are multiple factors contributing to this. The most obvious one is that fact that Maeda won't have pitched in almost 20 months so his overall health and effectiveness have dropped. He is almost 35 years old and coming off of a major arm surgery which certainly explains his lack of innings pitched in the projections.

There is still reason to believe that he could be effective. 

Maeda is relying on his fastball less and less so while the velocity and spin are disappointing, it won't factor in as much. 

Despite his poor season, his chase rate was elite - in the 89th percentile - while is similar to Julio Urias and even better than guys like Gerrit Cole and Brandon Woodruff. His barrel and whiff percentages were also well above average. 

A similar case to Maeda's would be Justin Verlander. In 2020, Verlander underwent Tommy John surgery at age 37. He missed the rest of the 2020 season and the entire 2021 season. As a 39 year old, he returned and had arguably the best season of career and won CY Young. While Verlander and Maeda are by no means the same pitcher, it is interesting to see that older pitchers are still able to recover from Tommy John and not let it impact their following season.

While I believe that Baseball Reference and FanGraphs are underselling his innings pitched in 2023, I don't expect him to return to his 2020 form. I see him finishing as our 4th or 5th starter with similar numbers to 2021. 

Regardless of my thoughts, Kenta Maeda is crucial to the team's success in 2023. If the Twins are competing for a playoff spot, having Maeda provides significant depth to a rotation that desperately needs it.