I really like your take on things.  A little reasonable optimism isn't unwarranted.  Right now everyone's sky is falling and the Twins will be terrible, maybe the worst ever. . . and the front office is the worst ever. . . and the manager is lousy. . . etc.  There are plenty of younger players and pitchers to be excited about this year, plus we almost always score runs somehow.  I don't think they are going to win 100 games (although who thought that in 2019?), but I think they'll be competitive and play compelling baseball this year.  Correa would have been nice to have, but we have a few other players who are nice to have as well.  Injuries may indeed come into play.  Or not.  Or maybe they will for our competition.  That isn't predictable for the most part.

I've lived in the Chicago area for about 25 years.  White Sox fans are mostly pretty realistic.  They got really excited back when they won the World Series, but since then have continued to be happy with some good teams and good baseball, even without being amazingly good.  Their glass always has something in it.  Cubs fans (Bears fans even more so, but that's a conversation for another day), on the other hand, think that every year the Cubs are amazing, until they are not. . . and then they want to fire the management and trade/cut all of the players.   Their glass is either overflowing or shattered.  I fear that Twins fans are becoming more like Cubs fans.  Sadly that is not a good look. 

Agreed, but you forgot our OF, which was our greatest defensive asset, even with injuries to Larnach, Kiriloff & Buxton off & on. The defense of Buxton, Kepler, Gordon & Celestino were great. Gordon & Celestino were a breath of fresh air from what we had before. Offense, Buxton is always great, Gordon was impressive and with return of Kiriloff and Larnach with the shift ban it will aid a lot to our group. Celestino made strides last season & I see him continue to do the same. This group was the area we needed the least help & this were FO saw fit to add. Contributing to the log jam at corner OF especially lefty bats.

INF is still our greatest need, Right now we have 0 quality depth at 3B, SS, & 2B. Farmer has trouble hitting RHPs which we face more than 80% of the time, we need a SS that is profiled as SS and can hit RHPs. That'll free up Farmer to be our quality utility player.

Others areas we're good as you said but we could still use improvement. We have a very good core with a few additions we can be very good. But IMO our problem hasn't been our players but how they've been managed.

The pen at this time is full of 1 and done relievers. Last year proved that either the starters need to go longer or they need a couple of multi inning guys.

I think Fan Graphs early projecton system on this team has them at 81 wins, and that was before Gallo (and maybe before Vazquez). So you're objectively right - it's not a bad team. The question is how do they get better?

I don't expect the Twins to be bad, but to have a chance at the playoffs there are just too many things that would have to go the Twins way. If Gray, Mahle, and Maeda each pitch 140+ innings and Buxton is healthy (can play the outfield everyday) for 140 games things could get interesting.

There is a pretty big range of performance possibilities for guys like Polanco, Kepler, and Gallo with the team needing them to perform closer to the high end of their abilities. Other uncertainties that could impact the team's record are the health of Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Ober, Winder, and Alcala. The Twins would need to get real contributions from most of that group. Basically, if everything breaks the in Twins favor they could compete to win the central, but the chances of that happening are pretty bad.

I think part of the of the question should be "is Cleveland that good.". Yes they ran away the last month, but the Twins had nothing left to put on the field at that point. The rest of the year no matter how depleted the Twins were, I am not giving Cleveland the title in advance, especially against a expectedly (or hoped for) healthier Twins team. Not many are counting the White Sox as a runaway team next year either.

Obviously the Twins need better health and full seasons from the majority of their expected roster to start the year. Not a World Series winner, but challenge for the division lead all year should be doable. No Correa, but Gallo is probably better than Contreras and Celestino production wise. Maeda & Mahle should be better than Archer & Bundy and hopefully Ober will be healthy all year. A full year production from Buxton(maybe not), Kirilloff & Larnach along with Vasquez, Miranda and a second half boost from Lewis. The Team should be much better off than last year's. Have Duran, Lopez and Alcala at the back of the bullpen along with Jax in the 7th and they should save some of those games that Pagan and Duffy gave away early last year. We finished with 78 wins last year some how and being 10 games better at least seems pretty doable.

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All we can do right now is stay optimistic and let it all play out. 

The players should stay optimistic. So much of the game is mental and you can't play at a high level if you're not giving 100%. and not trusting your teammates.

We fans on the other hand have no bearing on what happens on the diamond, and I feel within my rights to forecast another sub-.500 season based on where we're at, at this mid-point in the off-season.  And then I'll be pleasantly surprised if and when everything comes together like has been promised for a while now.

On 12/23/2022 at 3:22 PM, John Bonnes said:

I think Fan Graphs early projecton system on this team has them at 81 wins, and that was before Gallo (and maybe before Vazquez). So you're objectively right - it's not a bad team. The question is how do they get better?

 

Vasquez can be a huge addition to the Twins pitching staff. Remember Gray did not want to pitch to Sanchez when they were both Yankees. Pitch calling is critical. I predict the Twins pitch selection will improve with Vasquez behind the plate and Jeffers getting more experience and learning from the veteran Vasquez.

How many games do we have to lose before we hand the season over to the young guys? We have guys who are right there on the fence looking in, both hitters and pitchers.  Eventually we'll have to sort them out.

on the flip side...

What's the magic number for wins before we make a deal to improve the now?  If we do get 100+ games from Buxton and Miranda builds off of 2022, how hard will we push for the playoffs?

1 hour ago, Richard said:

How many games do we have to lose before we hand the season over to the young guys? We have guys who are right there on the fence looking in, both hitters and pitchers.  Eventually we'll have to sort them out.

on the flip side...

What's the magic number for wins before we make a deal to improve the now?  If we do get 100+ games from Buxton and Miranda builds off of 2022, how hard will we push for the playoffs?

Good questions! This team has felt in limbo for quite some time.

“At the end of the day, The AL central is wide open. The Guardians and White sox haven't taken massive steps forward and are still easily within reach of the Twins. If we avoid being battered by injuries like last year, this team could win 90 games and be right in the playoff mix.”

this is true, but outside of Mahle, all of the players that were a contribution to the “battered” impression were players that had extensive injuries prior and are still on the team. I don’t understand how one can make assumptions of better health and improved record, with a roster that is thus far, worse and lots of injury questions still. 81 wins projected by fangraphs seems optimistic with the balanced schedule upcoming.

I'm amazed that nobody mentioned Arraez who is the heart of this team. If he can come close to last season, the offense- even with Gallo striking out 200+ times- should be fine. Also, Polanco will be here all season and he is a big contributor. While I'm not high on Lewis, he has shown flashes of being a solid major leaguer when he is healthy. If Kirilloff can stay healthy and Buxton the same, we'll be very good. Let's see if Miranda is real going forward. The starters are good enough and the bullpen is the big question. I'd say we can win 86-87 games. The Guardians added some much needed pop but only were good for 2 months of last season. The White Sox are a big question mark though I expect them to be better. Having an old, out of touch, manager plus injuries hurt them last year. The Tigers will be better and KC probably won't. So we are right in it. The thing that may hurt us is we don't play as many in our division as in the past. But there are other patsys to beat up on.

13 hours ago, twinfan said:

I'm amazed that nobody mentioned Arraez who is the heart of this team. If he can come close to last season, the offense- even with Gallo striking out 200+ times- should be fine. Also, Polanco will be here all season and he is a big contributor. While I'm not high on Lewis, he has shown flashes of being a solid major leaguer when he is healthy. If Kirilloff can stay healthy and Buxton the same, we'll be very good. Let's see if Miranda is real going forward. The starters are good enough and the bullpen is the big question. I'd say we can win 86-87 games. The Guardians added some much needed pop but only were good for 2 months of last season. The White Sox are a big question mark though I expect them to be better. Having an old, out of touch, manager plus injuries hurt them last year. The Tigers will be better and KC probably won't. So we are right in it. The thing that may hurt us is we don't play as many in our division as in the past. But there are other patsys to beat up on.

If Arraez doesn't hit over .300 he doesn't bring much to the table.  So far we've seen nothing to make us believe that Kirilloff is anything other than an average hitter with limited power who can't stay healthy.   Wish I could be more positive.

It's hard to be optimistic about the Twins in 2023.  You can't just assume all the injured players will not only be healthy but perform at a high level.  Way too many "ifs" on the team.  Id love to see them win the division.  But as of today I think they will win about 75 games.  

On 12/23/2022 at 2:22 PM, John Bonnes said:

I think Fan Graphs early projecton system on this team has them at 81 wins, and that was before Gallo (and maybe before Vazquez). So you're objectively right - it's not a bad team. The question is how do they get better?

 

I think Fangraphs is dead on.. we are a .500 team as currently constructed. Would need some quality trades to upgrade the pitching staff that would improve the team as well as figuring out the outfield situation. 

We do have a decent pitching rotation but NEED a quality pitching coach ... last year between our fill in and Baldelli it was the worst Coached pitching staff in the league... 

As the Twins are currently constructed, they have one of the widest distributions of win outcomes in the league.

They could have Buxton, Kirilloff, Larnach, Polanco, Lewis, Grey, and Mahle, all stay relatively healthy and they might walk to the Central Division Winner's Circle with 97 wins.

Or they could have all those guys get injured again and the team finishes in 4th place in the Central with 97 losses (sorry Tigers).

Neither outcome would surprise me, and neither would probably surprise you either (yes, I'm breaking the 4th wall).

They still need an upgrade in the rotation, a starting-caliber/LHB platoon SS, and a right handed bat that can pseudo-play COF/1B.  That might at least limit the downside to 91 losses.