Is "Fishing in the Ocean" the Best Option for the Twins?
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Carlos Correa's "super agent" Scott Boras described the Minnesota Twins as "fishing in the ocean" just a week before Correa signed a 13-year $350M deal with the San Francisco Giants. At the time, the Twins were in the middle of a heated bidding war for the superstar short stop. that saw them offer a franchise record 10-year $280M contract. As we know, the Twins were unwilling to get to the 13 year threshold that the Giants offered, and he will now assumingly play out the remainder of his career in the The Golden City. Some Twins fans immediately took to bashing the front office for their inability to give Correa whatever he wanted because he said he wanted to remain in Minnesota. Other fans were just excited that the Twins had seemingly taken a step up by offering such a lucrative contract, and were now big players in the free agent game. Fishing in the ocean.
Fast forward just a few short days, and the Twins have finally began spending the surplus of money they had sitting unoccupied on the payroll. They started by signing Christian Vasquez, an elite defensive catcher who holds his own at the plate, to a 3-year $30M deal. They followed the Vasquez signing up by landing Joey Gallo, a former superstar with as much raw power as anyone in the league, to a 1-year $11M contract. This is clearly just the start of a Twins plan that is starting to formulate and fall into place, however, many Twins fans have voiced their displeasure with the team's lack of ability to reel in the big fish. Do these fans have a real gripe? Should the Twins be throwing around $200M contracts more frequently? The fun answer would be yes. It would be awesome to navigate an offseason and trade deadline with the same aggressiveness as the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, but is that the blueprint that the Twins should follow when their payroll sits right around $160M? I think the last five years have taught us that when it comes to winning a championship, there are many was to skin a cat, and maybe the Twins should shift their approach.
2020-2022 Offseasons
The years 2020-2022 brought us some of the most exciting offseason moments we could have ever hoped for as Twins fans. Prior to the 2020 season, the Twins signed Josh Donaldson to a 4-year $92M contract, which was the richest contract they had ever given to a free agent to date. The Donaldson signing was one of the most exciting offseason moments of my Twins fandom. The Donaldson era on the field was one chock-full with injuries and disappointment. He was eventually dumped off on the Yankees in a trade for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez in order to get Donaldson's contract off the books. His former Twins teammates were rather vocal about how they felt about Donaldson in his time in Minnesota, and it wasn't good. The Twins avoided the disaster of living out his 4-year deal by giving him away to the Yankees, who have also had their fair share of issues with Donaldson. Donaldson's two year stint with the Twins could've left a bad taste in the Twins mouth when it came to signing big free agents, but it didn't, as made evident by excitement displayed by fans when the Twins made the biggest move in franchise history following the Donaldson trade.
I remember waking up groggy eyed and looking at my phone when I saw the Minnesota Twins had signed Carlos Correa. Despite it being 6 a.m., I danced around my room screaming like an idiot until I lost my voice, got light headed, and decided to sit down. The Correa signing came out of no where, as there was never any reported interest between either party until the news broke that he was coming to Minnesota on a 3-year $105M deal that included opt out options after each of the first two seasons. Correa's time in Minnesota could not have been more different than Donaldson's. He was a fantastic leader and player, and left a very positive impact on the Twins. This is the reason they decided the 28-year-old was worth a 10-year $280M contract. Correa remained healthy and performed for much of the season, but he alone wasn't enough to make the Twins successful. As the players around Correa fell one by one to injury throughout the season, the Twins were forced to play a handful of players who were not Major League quality players. The season winded down to a disastrous end came and Correa opted out, leaving fans wondering what the Twins would do. In most Twins fans minds, after the last few offseasons, the only way to become a championship caliber team was to throw around as much cash as humanly possible and sign as many big named free agents as there were on the market. This is the exciting way to operate, but is it the best way for a mid-market team to go about their business?
2019 Offseason
In 2018 the Twins went 78-84 and fired their manager Paul Moliter. They went into the 2018-2019 offseason with plenty of young talent on the roster, but also plenty of holes to fill. The Twins followed a different model in this particular winter than they have in the offseasons since. In this offseason, the Twins started by signing low to mid level free agents like CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Ehire Adrianza, and Martin Perez. The Twins made their first big move of the winter when they signed the 38-year-old home run slugging DH Nelson Cruz to a 1-year $12M contract. They followed it up by signing the former World Series Champion Marwin Gonzalez to a 2-year $21M deal. This offseason saw them sign mid level free agents to short term, low risk, high reward contracts. The result of this plan just so happened to be one of the most memorable seasons in Twins history. The 2019 "Bomba Squad" won 101 games and won the AL Central. The team was fun, exciting, and very deep. It was built with a strong emphasis on depth, developing their own young players, and bringing in veteran players who provided good leadership on short term deals.
What's This Mean?
Maybe nothing. It's a small sample size, but I can't help but feel that this offseason is shaping up very much like the one that led the Twins to an all-too-fun 101 win season. The 2023 Twins team already has a lot of talent, and most of that talent is rather youthful. They have pivoted from the large, flashy contracts, and have focused on short term deals that could end up paying off big time if they hit. Take Joey Gallo for example. If he reverts the the 2021 version of himself that contributed 4.7 Wins Above Replacement, they could have themselves a massive asset for a very manageable price. If he sucks, the Twins will wash their hands of him, and it's essentially no harm, no foul. The Twins front office has received a ton of criticism for the lack of moves so far this winter, but I refuse to overreact to an unfinished product. The moves are coming, and I believe the Twins will compete in 2023, pushing to win a very weak AL Central.
The flashy moves the Twins have made the last few seasons have been fun. I will always get excited when I see a big name connected with the Twins. I will continue to lose my mind any time the Twins manage to bring one of those big fish to Minnesota. I'm not saying the Twins can't win by making these moves. My main point here is that the Twins have yet to find any success from signing star free agents to lucrative contracts. Instead of screaming at the top of our lungs to fire the whole front office, maybe we can take a step back and let the entirety of the offseason fall into place before we start criticizing. Let Falvey cook. Deep breaths. We've been here before.
What are your thoughts on the offseason this far? What are your hopes for the future? Let me know, and as always, Go Twins!
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