Do you believe Manfred is bringing back the super ball? Maybe for a few televised games in Yankee Stadium, but otherwise unlikely.

The AL Central in 2019 was pathetic. The 2023 season brings a more balanced schedule and both Cleveland and Chicago are clearly better than the Twins. The truth is that our Twins are much closer to competing with Detroit and Kansas City at this stage than to Chicago or Cleveland. Things can change in a hurry though and I still hope for 2-3 trades and a decent free agent signing.

The Twins did make a significant play when they signed JD, but it is noteworthy that the longest pitching contract has gone to Randy Dobnak. So no, the Twins don't go out in the ocean. They made just one trip to the end of a pier for Josh Donaldson.

The fish in the ocean are all scary. The Twins need to fish in a lake for Muskies, Northern, or Walleye. Right now they are fishing in a pond for Bluegills. Now I like sunnies but it takes too long to clean enough sunnies to feed a roomful of people, so I catch a pile of walleyes and northern instead.

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Do you believe Manfred is bringing back the super ball? Maybe for a few televised games in Yankee Stadium, but otherwise unlikely.

The AL Central in 2019 was pathetic. The 2023 season brings a more balanced schedule and both Cleveland and Chicago are clearly better than the Twins. The truth is that our Twins are much closer to competing with Detroit and Kansas City at this stage than to Chicago or Cleveland. Things can change in a hurry though and I still hope for 2-3 trades and a decent free agent signing.

The Twins did make a significant play when they signed JD, but it is noteworthy that the longest pitching contract has gone to Randy Dobnak. So no, the Twins don't go out in the ocean. They made just one trip to the end of a pier for Josh Donaldson.

The fish in the ocean are all scary. The Twins need to fish in a lake for Muskies, Northern, or Walleye. Right now they are fishing in a pond for Bluegills. Now I like sunnies but it takes too long to clean enough sunnies to feed a roomful of people, so I catch a pile of walleyes and northern instead.

Some good thoughts here. While the AL central wasn’t great in 2019, it was historically bad in 2022. One can’t discredit the quality of season the Twins put together in 2019 simply because their division was on the weaker side.

the main point I was trying to make is it seems as though the Twins have been trending toward signing big free agents to big contracts with the Donaldson and Correa signings.

While the Twins haven’t paid money through free agency for pitching, they have aggressively navigated the trade market to bring in Kenya Maeda, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and Tyler Mahle, all have and will continues to contribute to the Twins success. You could argue the 2023 rotation is as good a rotation as they’ve had in quite some time.

There’s a real argument to be made, and I tried to make above, that the Twins should stick to fishing in their lakes. They’ve pulled a lot of quality free agents. Thank you for your thoughts!

As I see it, 11 mil is a pretty good chunk of the 160 mil talked about as their salary. Yet the article says if he fails no harm no foul. Really, giving up that big of a percentage for failure is no harm? 

I think you're spot on. Unfortunately, the FO doesn't have the equipment for fishing in the ocean, but is not satisfied with a stringer of walleyes from Winnie... to put it in Minnesota terms ?

They kinda drag a line behind the boat ...........

As has been often pointed out (and accurately IMHO), why would a top free agent sign to play in Minnesota when they could sign with a team that plays in a state with no state income tax or with a team that plays in year-round sunshine?  Therefore, I think the best strategy for the Twins is to push the younger players more aggressively and get them to the major leagues as soon as possible.  After a couple years, extend all the younger players who they feel will be of positive value.  When the extension expires, the next move is either trade them for good prospects, try to extend them again, or cut them loose. That would provide a stable, known budget for the core of the team and help the front office sign players to help in areas of weakness.  This strategy could result in a roster similar to this:

5 young guys at $.7M = $3.5M

5 pre-arbitration guys at $2.5M = $12.5M

5 extended guys at $8M = $40M

7 post-arbitration guys at $12M = $84M

These signings would provide the front office with a base budget of $1404M  The remaining 4 roster spots would be filled with players (internal or external) to cover areas of need.  The difference between a suggested budget and the baseline of $140M is their discretionary money to acquire those players.  For example, a suggested budget of $160M would provide $20M of discretionary money to acquire 4 additional players to fill areas of need.  

The number of players and estimated salary at each category are primarily based on the current roster I found at MLB.com.

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

As I see it, 11 mil is a pretty good chunk of the 160 mil talked about as their salary. Yet the article says if he fails no harm no foul. Really, giving up that big of a percentage for failure is no harm? 

Where else would you rather the money go? Even after the Gallo deal, the Twins have plenty of money to spend. Why not spend a rather pedestrian amount on a player like Gallo who has massive upside? His track record outside of last year is very good. On top of that, the banning of the shift should cause his batting average to improve immediately. He's going to strike out a ton yes, but he will also supply 40 home run upside and excellent defense. I think an $11M contract is very low risk when you consider the upside.

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

As has been often pointed out (and accurately IMHO), why would a top free agent sign to play in Minnesota when they could sign with a team that plays in a state with no state income tax or with a team that plays in year-round sunshine?  Therefore, I think the best strategy for the Twins is to push the younger players more aggressively and get them to the major leagues as soon as possible.  After a couple years, extend all the younger players who they feel will be of positive value.  When the extension expires, the next move is either trade them for good prospects, try to extend them again, or cut them loose. That would provide a stable, known budget for the core of the team and help the front office sign players to help in areas of weakness.  This strategy could result in a roster similar to this:

5 young guys at $.7M = $3.5M

5 pre-arbitration guys at $2.5M = $12.5M

5 extended guys at $8M = $40M

7 post-arbitration guys at $12M = $84M

These signings would provide the front office with a base budget of $1404M  The remaining 4 roster spots would be filled with players (internal or external) to cover areas of need.  The difference between a suggested budget and the baseline of $140M is their discretionary money to acquire those players.  For example, a suggested budget of $160M would provide $20M of discretionary money to acquire 4 additional players to fill areas of need.  

The number of players and estimated salary at each category are primarily based on the current roster I found at MLB.com.

You make some nice points! The only way for Minnesota to win bidding wars is to overpay unfortunately. It isn't a glamorous location for most free agents, especially those who aren't used to the cold.

It is always tough to rapidly promote young players without allowing them to develop in the minors. Jeter Downs is a great example of this, as he was accelerated a bit too rapidly, and it eventually led to his downfall in Boston. Poor guy went from being the center piece in a trade for Mookie Betts to being waived last week. He was excellent in AA, but I think he was rushed to AAA where he struggled mightily. That said, when a player is ready to  play in the Majors, by all means, call them up!

The roster construction model you posted is an interesting one. I wonder how easy or difficult it would be to follow. I wonder if there may be cases when you have too many guys who fall into one category or not enough guys who fall into another category. Take the Braves for example shelling out extensions to almost all of their players (besides Dansby Swanson). In that case, the limit of 5 extended guys may be pushed. But it's a great model to follow! I like the way you're thinking!

19 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

Where else would you rather the money go? Even after the Gallo deal, the Twins have plenty of money to spend. Why not spend a rather pedestrian amount on a player like Gallo who has massive upside? His track record outside of last year is very good. On top of that, the banning of the shift should cause his batting average to improve immediately. He's going to strike out a ton yes, but he will also supply 40 home run upside and excellent defense. I think an $11M contract is very low risk when you consider the upside.

OK, IF he hits 40 HR's and drives in 80 or more runs and can get his avg up. But after last year, hitting in HR happy stadium in NY, avg under 200, I don't feel that's a probability. I would rather see how Mahle and Gray and Maeda fare and extend them  if they perform the way they have in the recent past. If Mahle can get healthy he's a solid #2 and so is Gray and we know Maeda could pitch well before TJ surgery. All are less of an IF IMO than Gallo.

56 minutes ago, Karbo said:

OK, IF he hits 40 HR's and drives in 80 or more runs and can get his avg up. But after last year, hitting in HR happy stadium in NY, avg under 200, I don't feel that's a probability. I would rather see how Mahle and Gray and Maeda fare and extend them  if they perform the way they have in the recent past. If Mahle can get healthy he's a solid #2 and so is Gray and we know Maeda could pitch well before TJ surgery. All are less of an IF IMO than Gallo.

The signing of Gallo won't have any affect on whether or not they extend players next year. Gallo's deal is a one year deal, which is why I say it's low risk. $11M is a fair price to pay for someone with as much upside as Gallo. The reason I called it no harm no foul is because his contract is off the books in a year and will have no impact on whether or not they sign free agents or extend their own players in the future.

Pitching wins ball games. Get some guys who can give you quality starts consistently (Gray/Mahle/Ryan/Ober/Maeda is already strong, but could use an Ace) and a lockdown bullpen, which a mix of Jax/Pagan/Thielbar/Alcala/Lopez/Duran is very effective already, and only really needs another high-end reliever to complete the pen. 
 

The offense should be fine, it needs a star that’s healthy to really have this team make a pivot, but as it stands looks just fine. The left side of the infield could use help and a RH OF is still needed but it shouldn’t take too much to get those players.

19 minutes ago, MTV said:

Pitching wins ball games. Get some guys who can give you quality starts consistently (Gray/Mahle/Ryan/Ober/Maeda is already strong, but could use an Ace) and a lockdown bullpen, which a mix of Jax/Pagan/Thielbar/Alcala/Lopez/Duran is very effective already, and only really needs another high-end reliever to complete the pen. 
 

The offense should be fine, it needs a star that’s healthy to really have this team make a pivot, but as it stands looks just fine. The left side of the infield could use help and a RH OF is still needed but it shouldn’t take too much to get those players.

Couldn't agree more! The Twins aren't in a bad spot at the moment. They were on their way to having a solid season last year until injuries derailed them. A lot of positive takeaways, and as you said, the team needs to get healthy! They have a star in Byron Buxton and a solid lineup to pair with him. They could use another bat to add to the mix. Maybe Brandon Drury, Trey Mancini, or Jurickson Profar can be targets who would be very similar to the Marwin Gonzalez signing back in early 2019. The pitching is fine as is, but could become a real asset with either a trade for a top level starter or the bolstering of the bullpen. If we're lucky, maybe the Twins do all these things, and the Twins become competitors! I like where your head's at!

22 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

The signing of Gallo won't have any affect on whether or not they extend players next year. Gallo's deal is a one year deal, which is why I say it's low risk. $11M is a fair price to pay for someone with as much upside as Gallo. The reason I called it no harm no foul is because his contract is off the books in a year and will have no impact on whether or not they sign free agents or extend their own players in the future.

My point of extensions is they need to be done this season if they are to prevent Gray, Mahle, or Maeda from becoming FA next year.