What Would it Take to be Average?
Entry posted by SportsGuyDalton in Baseball Data ·
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As we near the final quarter of the MLB season, it’s a good time to take stock of Twins hitters’ performance this season.
To gauge which Twins hitters are having good seasons, I will compare each hitter’s 2022 numbers to their "average" season, then calculate how each player needs to perform for the remainder of 2022 to reach their average statline. In other words, what would it take for each player to have their average season? This approach has its flaws and doesn’t work for rookies, but it’s a fun thought exercise. This post is a little math-heavy -- I'll lay out some simple examples along the way. Let’s give it a go.
First, I calculate what an "average" 2022 season would be for each player. I start by estimating the number of games each player will play this season based on the share of games they have played to this point. For example, if a player has played 2/3 of all games so far, I estimate they will play 2/3 of the remaining games for a total of 108 games played (2/3 of 162) .
Then, using this final 2022 games-played number, I calculate how Twins batters would perform in the full 2022 season based only on their 162-game career averages from before this season. For example, if a player hit 30 doubles per 162 games before 2022 and is projected to play 2/3 of all games in 2022, their "average" 2022 season would include 108 games played and 20 doubles (2/3 of 30).
To assess whether a player is performing well or poorly in 2022, I compare their “average” season (above) to their real 2022 statistics, and calculate how each player would need to perform for the rest of the season in order to finish with their average season statline. For example, Gio Urshela's average projections estimate he will hit 14 homeruns in 2022; he currently has 11 homeruns, meaning he needs to hit 3 more before the season ends to have an average season.
This helps us gauge performance because, if a player needs to finish the year hitting like prime Barry Bonds to have their average season, that’s an indication they have had a rough season so far. Conversely, a player is probably having a good season if they can reach their career averages by hitting like a slumping Nick Punto for the final month and a half.
The table below shows how each batter would need to perform in the final quarter of the season to finish 2022 with their "average" statline.
The red boxes highlight areas where players have a lot of work left to do. Green highlights areas where players are in good shape.
It’s immediately clear that Gary Sanchez and Max Kepler are unlikely to reach their career averages. I'm not holding my breath for them to combine for 33 homeruns and an OPS around 1.000 in the team's final 46 games.
Carlos Correa has been mildly underwhelming across the board in 2022, which is reflected by the hot stretch needed to achieve his average season. It’s not entirely out of the question for Correa to heat up and hit .290/.372/.626 with 9 homeruns the rest of the way, but it’s getting less likely by the day.
Polanco and Buxton are interesting cases, posting homerun and walk numbers that blow away their career averages, but both players have sacrificed their batting averages to do so. I think Twins fans have mixed feelings about their approaches to hitting.
Urshela has been solid all season, which shows in the mediocre numbers he needs to reach his career averages.
And finally, clearly, Luis Arraez has been outstanding in 2022. He could probably hit .237 down the stretch with one arm tied behind his back.
Thanks for reading!
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