Does the computer think Joe Mauer is a HOFer?
Twins Video
I have always been intrigued by simulations. Pretend worlds are a lot of fun. I will get into more of that in a moment. For now, I would like to tell the Twins fan base that I do believe Joe Mauer is a hall of famer.
6 all-star appearances
3 batting titles at catcher
1 MVP
55.2 WAR
.388 Career OBP
.306 Career BA
Of course, if Joe Mauer played his whole career at catcher, he is first ballot with no debate. That did not happen though. He last caught in 2013 and retired after the 2018 season.
WAR as catcher between 2004 – 2013 was 44.6
WAR at first base between 2014 – 2018 WAR: 10.5
Still a valuable player from 2014 on though. At the end of the day Joe M. was the best catcher in baseball for 10 years. That is not easy to do. So how does this fit into my nerdy enjoyment of a simulation? Easy. I wanted to see if the computer agrees with me that Joe Mauer is a hall of famer. I decided to use OOTP to figure this out. If you are not familiar with Out of the Park Baseball, it is an amazing game and simulation engine that allows you to simulate all things baseball.
Check it out here
https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/out-of-the-park-baseball-home/
So, I used OOTP Baseball 2022, and I simulated the 2021 – 2041 baseball seasons. Joe Mauer's career numbers will not change in the pretend world or our real world so that makes this a pretty simple thing to simulate and look at. I was only interested in the Hall of Fame voting totals.
Here are the voting results
year |
% of vote |
2024 |
47.8 |
2025 |
45.2 |
2026 |
32.7 |
2027 |
43.8 |
2028 |
21.5 |
2029 |
38.7 |
2030 |
12.6 |
2031 |
32.4 |
2032 |
14 |
2033 |
25.4 |
So, the computer does not agree with me. Joe M. is not a Hall of Famer. He did not even come real close. I think it will be wrong. Algorithms never played the game. What do you all think?
Other interesting notes from the simulation:
The Twins did not win a World Series during these 20 years.
The Twins made the playoffs 8 times in the time frame.
In 2040 Twins payroll was $185,342,511.
Alex Kirilloff was out of baseball at the age of 30 and had 6 MLB at bats after 2022.
Luis Arraez last played for the Twins in 2026. He retired in 2033 with a .401 OBP. His career earnings were $33,572,500.
Byron Buxton finished his career with a 26.4 WAR.
Buster Posey did not become a Hall of Fame either. His highest vote total was 51.7 in 2036.
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