As of this moment there are 30 rostered players and 1 non-rostered player in camp for the Twins. Of the rostered players, Jovani Martin has been told he would be optioned to St. Paul and Cory Stashak will stay in Florida and go on the Injured List. That includes 16 pitchers and 13 position players. The non-roster player is Kyle Garlick, who got a year's service time last year as a backup outfielder who was later injured and never returned to the major league active roster. I assume that the Twins will, in fact, carry 16 pitchers and will either sent Garlick directly to St. Paul or DFA someone and demote Brent Rooker. Either way, the squad will have to be down to 13 pitchers four weeks from today.

First of all, this is quite a makeover from the squad that opened in Milwaukee just over a year ago. The starting rotation is 100% turned over, and there are four holdovers in the bullpen. There will be a new DH and new starters at catcher, shortstop, third base and left field. If healthy, three of the Twins starting players project to be elite (Correa, Buxton) or well above average (Polanco). Two highly regarded graduates of the Twins' farm system figure to make their first Opening Day starts, two former All-Stars look to rebound as well as two solid performers in past years who fell on hard times in 2021. There are a lot of ifs, but there is a chance that the lineup can be outstanding. 

The pitching staff features a rotation where Sonny Gray is the best bet to succeed. After him, the next two guys, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, both started last year in the minors. They combined for 17 big league starts (12 by Ober). The other two guys in the rotation as of today are reclamation projects, roughly equivalent to last year's acquisitions of Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ. The bullpen is a mish-mash of proven arms, potential, journeymen, and converted starters who may or may not last beyond May 1. Probably all year the bullpen will be asked to contribute more than four innings per game, making a 13-man staff a necessity for the bulk of the season. Maybe the most encouraging thing about the pitching staff is the talent in the upper minors, both starters and relievers, so that the Twins might be able to weather a rash or injuries or ineffectiveness from the guys currently on the active roster.

Most fans who more than casually follow the Twins view the pitching staff with concern (I know I do), but I see several other several other stumbling blocks/question marks that must be hurdled in order for the Twins to have a successful season (make the playoffs and win at least one game). 1) Betting big on unproven talent. Ryan Jeffers played in 85 games last year and compiled almost  300 plate appearances. He did not break the Mendoza Line (.199) and had a puny OPS of .670. The Twins see Jeffers as a better hit-tool version of Mike Zunino, and maybe he will deliver that kind of production. Alex Kirilloff was a Twins' #1 draft choice. He profiles as a fine hitter and excellent defensive first baseman. So far, he's suffered a lot of injuries and only managed about 230 plate appearances for the Twins. It remains to be seen if the wrist he injured earlier, which eventually shut him down for the season will hold up. If so, the Twins think he could be a combination of Will Clark and Mark Grace as a long-term first baseman. High projection--hit like Will Clark, field like Mark Grace. Low (but healthy) projection--hit like Grace, field like Clark. Kirilloff is a work in progress as an outfielder. There's a gamble in counting on either or both of these players for 2022. 2) The Gary Sanchez Problem--Sanchez had fallen out of favor with the Yankees due to his subpar (I'm being kind) defense and falloff at the plate. He profiles similar to Jeffers as a hitter and offers insufficient value as a DH. Sanchez will get an 8-figure salary in arbitration so it is unlikely that he will only be in the lineup once or twice a week. The Twins already have enough DH candidates so Sanchez clogs up that position. Today, the Twins DFAed the third catcher on their 40-man roster, so it is likely that Jeffers and Sanchez will be the only catchers on the club, at least for now. 3) As a roster, the team is long-ball dependent and will strike out a ton. Sano and Sanchez, in particular are noted for high K percentages. Team speed is another issue. Buxton is one of the fastest players in MLB and Nick Gordon's wheels are perhaps his best asset, but beyond that there are a lot of glaciers in the lineup. 4) Too many DHs. Many are calling for Luis Arraez to be the DH a majority of the time in 2022. He is a man without a position, functional at second and short. Miguel Sano has played first base for two seasons, including the COVID year and has shown to be well below average (again, being kind) at the position and, as mentioned earlier, Sanchez figures to get DH at-bats as well. Brent Rooker is another in the mode of Sanchez and Sano--right handed hitter, plus power, low contact, poor defense--giving the Twins far too many guys to stay off the field defensively.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another move or two before the team lines up on Opening Day. Adding an outfielder who could hit left handed pitching and play above-average defense in left field would be good. The door is also open for better pitching than the current crew. We will have answers in three days. It's always good when baseball is back.