I wonder if increased strikeouts are a byproduct of optimizing Attack Angle for power. I bet (hypothesize) it is and I bet there’s been some swing coaching on the Twins lineup that has been counterproductive.

I would like to see Kepler’s data, in particular. I remember that nice flat swing from earlier years somehow generating all that backspin. “Let Kep swing how he wants, how he did when he first came up.” Thanks @Parker Hageman. I will have to get on Substack. 

17 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I wonder if increased strikeouts are a byproduct of optimizing Attack Angle for power. I bet (hypothesize) it is and I bet there’s been some swing coaching on the Twins lineup that has been counterproductive.

I would like to see Kepler’s data, in particular. I remember that nice flat swing from earlier years somehow generating all that backspin. “Let Kep swing how he wants, how he did when he first came up.” Thanks @Parker Hageman. I will have to get on Substack. 

There hasn't been a publicly provide update on the attack angle (or other swing data) since 2017 so it is difficult to say if there has been a significant league-wide shift on that. It's possible it is a factor in combination with the trend of higher velo, higher located fastballs. 

In regards to Max Kepler, in 2017 Kepler had one of the lowest attack angles in baseball at 4 degrees.  The "optimal" attack angle for fastballs was around 8-10 degrees. By comparison, Joe Mauer was 11 degrees and Nelson Cruz was 12. It makes sense about Kepler considering coaches said that they felt he was too steep into the swing zone and that resulted on him getting on top of balls (grounders into the shift).

I can't say how much he has or hasn't changed in terms of attack angle. He has acknowledged that in 2019, he tried to chase launch angle -- and he both increased that, his exit velo and pulled the ball more.  I don't know how much of that is from the coaching side either. 

Another factor is VERTICAL BAT ANGLE. This is another measurement of the degree at which the barrel of the bat is compared to the knob of the bat at contact. There is a good thread on this concept here but, simply, a flat vertical bat angle produces more in-play mi****s (infield field balls and weak grounders) while a steeper vertical bat angle will typically produce more mi****s out of play (foul balls) and squarely hit balls. If you look at the picture in this 2017 article, you can see an example of Kepler's flat vertical bat angle. It's possible that Kepler still has a very flat swing (attack angle-wise) which is resulting in that high rate of infield flies and ground balls. 

As far as backspin goes, research by Dr. Alan Nathan shows that the best and most consistent way to hit balls with backspin is by (1) hitting them square and (2) slightly south of the ball's equator. If your attack angle is steep, like Kepler's in 2017, you have to have nearly perfect timing to get to that spot. With an optimal attack angle closer to 8-10 degrees, you have more room for error. 

Adding to this, high backspin, as shown in some research, isn't optimal either. A recent Fangraphs' study showed that players who have high backspin underperform compared to those in the square contact group. High backspin adds flight carry but does not necessarily get as many hits. While it is good to have a backspinning ball flight, exit velocity is a superior indicator of hit potential. This is to say, hitters shouldn't focus on backspin contact. 

I don't know if this has answered anything but it certainly killed some time.

Did this help? This is gold. 

There is a Cody Bellinger Little League home run, where his attack angle looks very negative but the ball flies a long way. Bat struck ball in the right spot. 

(Don’t know why I thought of that, but I did)