I'm revisiting this topic after the Case for Trading Span thread discussion.

I believe that Revere's extreme contact proficiency is causing him to prematurely terminate at-bats to the detriment of his OBP. Here I want to estimate what Revere's OBP would be if he never swung at another 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 pitch again by looking at the probabilities of outcomes based on Revere's first 1068 PAs.

For data, I'm using fangraphs' PITCHf/x Plate Discipline, and Baseball-Reference's Pitch Summary -- Batting pages.

I will assume that pitchers throw Revere strikes at a constant rate, regardless of count. I admit that in terms of a game scenario where there' s a man, and not pitchFX calling balls and strikes, that this is a bit of a reach owing to things like the Compassionate Umpire effect, although there is a more or less equivalent counter effect in the Merciless Umpire. For my calculations, I will not account for human error in calling balls and strikes.

For Revere, the rate at which pitchers throw him pitches that fall within PITCHf/x's strike zone is 53.4%. This is before Revere swings or doesn't swing. Of Pitches, inside the zone, Revere swings at 51.4%, making contact 96.7% of the time and whiffing 3.3%. Contact is defined as balls put in play or fouled off. Unfortunately, I'm unable to assign different foul ball swing%'s to balls in or out of the zone, so I will assume it is the same for both. That rate (called F/Str on baseball-reference) is 21% of all strikes seen. 64% of pitches are either a swinging or non-swinging strike. And Revere's Z-swing% is 51.4%. So of all strikes thrown to Revere, 39.3% are swung on and put into play, 10.4% are swung on and fouled off, 1.7% are swung on and missed, and the rest, 48.6%, are taken.

Revere's O-Swing% (Swings at pitches out of the zone / Pitches out of the zone) is 26.2%, and his contact rate is 82.1%. so of all pitches thrown outside the zone (46.6%), 16.9% are swung on and put into play, 4.5% are fouled off, 4.0% are swung on and missed, and the rest, 74.6%, are taken.

in 1068 PAs so far, Revere's seen 122 2-0 counts and swung 41 times. We can assume 5.0 of those were balls (26.2% O-swing% / ball rate of 46.6% x 41). Of the 36.0 strikes swung on, 27.3 were put in play, 7.3 were fouled off, 1.4 were whiffed.