Not sure why, but Randy Dobnak got me thinking about the odds of ever being a major league player. According to MLB stats there have been 18, 918 to play in the majors since 1871. I do not know if that is accurate – who does? Does it include the Negro leagues? Does it include the female league? No those last two are not included. It does not include the independent or the minor leagues, but even if it did it still represents such a small percentage of the population. There are 328.2 million people in the US according to the census. If all of the players who ever played in MLB were playing now they would still be just 5.7% of the population and we have a game that draws from all over the world. Out of this group 333 are in the hall of fame – 1.8%. It is a demanding game.

Only 21 players have gone from drafted to the majors with no stop in the minors. When MLB heartlessly cancelled the minor league season there were 160 teams and towns impacted and about 8000 players. In the majors there are 30 teams and 60 players on their lists 1800 total. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/sports/baseball/minor-league-baseball-season-canceled.html

I try to imagine how many players are let go or retire and how many are signed each year. Baseball America https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/ says that about 900 players are signed each year. Since they do not create new leagues for them we must also lose 900 a year. Wow – talk about crashed dreams. The same article said, “from 1981-2010, 17.6 percent of players who were drafted and signed ended up making it to the majors.” And “Only 9.8 percent of draftees who signed have managed to register 0.1 career WAR, which is roughly 83 players per season.”

What about undrafted players? There will be many more this year with the aborted draft that was held. I cannot find a number for all the undrafted players – of course before the draft everyone was in that category. But I did find this list that includes our own Dan Gladden and HOF pitcher Bruce Sutter and HOF outfielder Larry Walker - https://www.mlb.com/cut4/best-undrafted-players-in-mlb-history-c278967168 plus some more really good players.

Which brings me to my final stat – there are 750,000 Uber drivers in the US and we have only one former driver in the big leagues – Randy Dobnak. Think of those odds – 1/750,000 and then 5.7% of the current US population having ever made the majors.

Hat’s off to Randy. Enjoy every pitch. The ride might turn into pumpkins eventually, but he is already among the luckiest and most achieving.