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Are Homer Bailey and Rich Hill Really A Good Idea?


TwinsFan268

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The Twins went into this offseason looking for impact pitching. They'd had a phenomenal offensive season, hitting 307 home runs, but their pitching wasn't so awesome. They were also entering the offseason with a rotation that consisted of Jose Berrios. They quickly extended a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi, and he accepted. Then, they resigned Michael Pineda to a 2 year contract. Fans said that the rotation looked "too much like last year" but I didn't think about that. I would think about how they really needed two more pitchers. You can't have a rotation that consists of three people, and especially not 2 people for the first 39 games of the season. (Of course, we did know that they would use Randy Dobnak, or Devin Smeltzer, or Lewis Thorpe in this spot.) So finally, on Tuesday, they signed Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. (ha ha, a pitcher named Homer?) When I was reading Twitter comments on their posts about signing them, a lot of them said things like this is a great signing-from Indians fans and I thought you wanted to keep up with the White Sox. One of the worst things about this signing is that Hill is injured until JUNE! So, in addition to Dobnak, Smeltzer, or Thorpe being used in Pineda's spot, they're going to need one of them to fill Hill's spot. (Now is the part where you should be saying "Oh, God, this was a really bad signing") I will give you the even worse part of it: Hill will be 40 the next time he comes to pitch. Nelson Cruz will also be 40 next season, but he's a designated hitter, not a pitcher! (Now you say "Why the heck did they do this?") And, both their contracts are for only 1 year, so when the Twins enter next offseason, they'll practically be back at square one with Odorizzi also set to enter free agency. Could they have made a worse signing?

 

Also here's a secret: Homer Bailey looks terrifying and old and like he needs to smile more.

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The only plus is that the Twins can open the season looking at the future. They don't need five starters every fifth day. And they will be able to get a good hard look at a possible advancement by Dobnak, Graterol, Thorpe or Smeltzer to be a part of the rotation for most of the season and going into 2021 as being viable starters. If you have real pitching arms in the minors, you need to give them a chance. Otherwise, why draft rotation arms. Just buy them each and every season.

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Gee, what a surprise.

 

Diddle around, miss out on the top free agents to address our #1 need, scrape the bottom of the burned-out dumpster for shot-in-the-dark vets, and call it a day.

 

Well, maybe they're making an actual run at Donaldson, but last I heard, he's not a starting pitcher, so...

 

We bludgeoned teams with the long ball last year. That may not be the case with next year's baseball. And I don't know if anyone informed the FO, but it's pitching that wins in the playoffs.  If we get there again.

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I would have bundled up all that salary we are paying Hill, Bailey, and Pineda and applied it to either Bumgarner, Wheeler, or Ryu. But that’s just me.

 

This all kind of feels like the 2017-2018 offseason, coming off the optimism from being in the Wild Card game, and then seeing the free agent signings be underwhelming (and I was against the two biggest signings that year, Morrison and Lynn). But give them credit for the Odorizzi trade that year.

 

Can the FO pull a rabbit out of their hat and save the offseason somehow?

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I would have bundled up all that salary we are paying Hill, Bailey, and Pineda and applied it to either Bumgarner, Wheeler, or Ryu. But that’s just me.

This all kind of feels like the 2017-2018 offseason, coming off the optimism from being in the Wild Card game, and then seeing the free agent signings be underwhelming (and I was against the two biggest signings that year, Morrison and Lynn). But give them credit for the Odorizzi trade that year.

Can the FO pull a rabbit out of their hat and save the offseason somehow?

I don't think fans understand that Wheeler and MadBum were never coming here. They had destinations they wanted to go to and actually took less money to get there. 

 

As for Ryu, while I would have paid him, he's essentially Rich Hill a few years younger with the same injury risk. The only difference is that Ryu is (maybe) starting the season healthy and Rich Hill only cost $3m. I can see why the front office may have been worried about paying a guy $80m and risking getting 100-200 IP in return.

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These signings in a vacuum are great. If Indians fans are saying they're happy to see these signings, they don't understand what they're talking about. 

 

Homer Bailey is better than Gibson and Perez and the front office has said they have been watching him since the end of last year with changes in mind to improve him even further on his 4.57 ERA and 4.11 FIP. This isn't a Martin Perez "let's take a bad pitcher and make him serviceable" move. Bailey is serviceable already and will at least be a good fill in for Pineda with the ability to stick down the stretch.

 

If you're mad at the Rich Hill move, you're looking too hard for something to be upset about. He's 40 but he's been an enigma since he returned to the MLB. Even if he doesn't pitch until July, he's a wild card that we have in our back pocket down the stretch and has put up ace like numbers in pretty much every healthy stretch he's had for the last 5 years. He's being paid $3m with incentives, and if he never pitches again we pretty much lose nothing.

 

You can be mad that they didn't sign any of the top free agent starters, I am. Would you rather they just admit defeat and go into the season with only Berrios and Odorizzi in the rotation though just so the fans can say "I told you so"? They got a guy who can eat up innings which we desperately needed and a guy with tremendous upside and playoff experience. They're doing all they can after missing on the top end of free agency and they made probably the best moves they could have with what was left. They're also still talking to Donaldson and I'd expect them to pivot to the trade market for more pitching if they can't get him. They were likely favorites before making these moves and both of them likely increased their odds, granted not as much as signing Gerrit Cole would have. I'm pretty happy with both of these moves.

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I don't think fans understand that Wheeler and MadBum were never coming here.
I am sure you are mistaken.

 

Wheeler simply accepted the more desirable offer of two similar offers (Chicago’s was apparently a few million more for the same years). And even in Bumgarner’s case, if the Twins wanted to get creative, I think they could have attracted him here. Say, a 4/80 contract front loaded with an opt-out after two years. What is your opinion on a possible offer like that?

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