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Clearing Space - the Outfield


mikelink45

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blog-0988943001567002518.jpgReading the blogs and comments I see a lot of people looking at the outfielders and whether we should trade Rosario for starting pitching, put Jake Cave on the roster for Post Season and how to handle the surplus in the minors. September is a big audition month and a time to give some players a little rest. We have too many players who need to be added to the 40 man and not enough room. Do we trade, do we DFA, do we get rid of players already on the roster? Do we allow free agents to leave?

 

So how do we clear the surplus? As I pondered the Rosario trade idea I was struck with the fact that Eddie is a nice player, but in many ways he his not much above replacement in a league where everyone hits HRs. I see Eddie behind Buxton and Kepler, but trading requires the other teams to value your player as high as you would like them too and I do not see Eddie bringing in the SP that we dream of. Nor do I see Cave as a full time player being better than Eddie - another just above replacement performer - nice but not essential.

 

My thought is that if we want something; the player teams will value highest is Buxton. Buxton has now had 1250 big league at bats and this was his best year, but overall he has hit 237/292/706, His defense is what we really value, but he has to be on the field to provide defense.

 

April 1, 2014 Buxton put on injury list by Fort Myers, and again in Fort Myers on May 11 and July 6. July 26, 2015 on DL (Twins) thumb injury. July 15, 2017 Buxton on DL, groin injury. April 2018 on IL for migraines; May 10 broken toe and July 14 back on IL with left wrist strain. In August 2018 he was on the DL in Rochester with a left wrist injury, in June 2019 he was on the IL with a right wrist injury, July 16 on the IL with concussion symptoms, and again on July 23, concussion again, and August 3 - left shoulder subluxation.

 

He played five years in 388/810 games - 48%. How long before injuries and age remove speed and reduce him to a nice, but not great OF?

 

He is valued by us and many others - if we want a starting pitcher Byron might be the best bait. But do we have another CF? Kepler probably moves there and in two years we would be surrounded by Larnach and Kiriloff and our OF defense would not be great. I cannot see this team extending Rosario and I do not see Cave as more than a place holder. Is there a CF in the system?

 

So I see Rosario going, at least as a FA, Cave as a place holder and Buxton probably still here, but a good trade bait. I see Larnach and Kiriloff coming up, I see Rooker going somewhere else and I see Wade as never more than a fourth OF and probably playing for another team - maybe Gardy would like him in Detroit.

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I like our system infield depth better than our outfield depth. Keep Eddie and expect a run to the WS before he hits FA and take our chances on resigning him. Polanco and the team friendly contract and the AS year brings back a much better starter than Eddie this winter. I think we may have already missed the peak trade value window for Byron. This winter should be Polanco's peak trade value window. I guess it depends on if you see Lewis as our future shortstop or centerfielder? 

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Can't trade Eddie when Buxton cannot stay healthy.  You can have all the prospects you want doesn't mean they will succeed at the major league level.

 

 

It might be better to trade some OF prospects. Just remember all the hype on pitching prospects Stephen Gonsalves & Fernando Romero for starters. If the Twins dealt them before they were promoted they could have cleaned up. Now, they could almost both be DFA candidates.

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Can't trade Eddie when Buxton cannot stay healthy.  You can have all the prospects you want doesn't mean they will succeed at the major league level.

 

 

It might be better to trade some OF prospects. Just remember all the hype on pitching prospects Stephen Gonsalves & Fernando Romero for starters. If the Twins dealt them before they were promoted they could have cleaned up. Now, they could almost both be DFA candidates.

 

I completely agree.

 

Assuming that Larnach, Rooker, etc are going to put up Eddie Rosario-type numbers is delusional. About 30 out of 1000 highly touted prospects become regular every-day players. You have guys like Arraez who come out of nowhere and are great, then you have #1-rated farm system guys who simply can't put it together at the MLB level.

 

Trading prospects might indeed be the way to go, depending on how this team does in the postseason (if they get there).

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Interesting. When I heard the Mets wanted Buxton I went "whoa....maybe, maybe.

 

Part of the issue with Buxton (three more years of control) and Rosario (two more years of control) is how high will they go in arbitration contracts (usually more than the season average you MIGHT get as a free agent for one of the years) or the total cost of extending them comapred to gambling on the crop in the wings.

 

And there are outfielders in the wings. Cave and LaMonte Wade are still around. Neither I would think is a longterm star. Raley and Rooker are on the verge, but are corner guys. Kiriloff and Larnach are one full season away from coming on board, but may be slow out-of-the-gate once playing fulltime. There are another 3-5 names, but ALL are at least a season away of minor league pay before even getting a glimpse, and there is the old 40-man protection thing...you can only have so many folks in position to play ball in the majors.

 

But, yes, Rosario may be worth the msot ever, especially if he can pull together a fine September. He may even be better next season and the season after, or maybe just the same, or possibly more average. Gamble you take. It all comes down to money, or what someone offfers you.

 

But back to Buxton...I almost wish the Twins had pulled the deal with the Mets. Kepler in center for a year? I could live with that. Buxton and a couple ofpitchers you can't protect for a mainstream starter, a bullpen arm and some low-level talent.....in a second. Buxton may be a superstar, but if you can't come to an agreement on contract, he will still be a superstar for another team.

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