If you put this logic in front of me before the All Star break, I might have agreed with you. But trending, since the AS break, seems to belay that logic now.  I'm not so optimistic on the Twins ability to cover an overall .666 to .700 record against the Tigers, WS, Rangers, KC, etc., i.e., the .500 or sub-500 teams on the list.  Not the way they're playing right now.  I have the Indians winning the Div with 99 wins and the Twins battling TB and Oakland for the final wild card spot. Maybe 95 or 96 wins? Hope I'm wrong (but don't think I will be...).

I think it’ll come down to which club gets the most quality starts from their rotations. If Kluber returns strong I can see the Indians be tough down the stretch. If the Twins can get decent outings from Gibson and Pineda they may have the edge. No matter I think this division could be decided in the final season series.

Dyson and Romo, plus player "X" from our farm system, stabilize the pen and we win the Central going away.

I'd have to concur with Nash on this one.   Cleveland is playing tough right now, but, the only realistic way they take the Central is sweeping the Twins head to head (and even then it is not guaranteed at this point). 

2 of 3 games only nets you one game, and 3 of 4 only nets you two games.   A sweep is the only meaningful way that the second place team gains ground.   Otherwise any games played head to head are a wash, and at this time a year, a second place team cannot afford that.

So... just keeping track of this.  After the last 13 games, the Twins are 7 - 6 (about .500).  That includes the 4 game sweep they had of Texas.  If you just count the games since their series with the Rangers, then they're 5 - 2. That's .714 win %.  Still too early to tell, but it's definitely going to be a rollercoaster ride the rest of the way in!!!  Hold on tight and have the barf bag ready...

It won't matter who finishes on top if Berrios & Gibson can't figure things out soon.