At some point, you have to know when to cut bait and move on. For Twins fans, that time has come for Dallas Keuchel.

For the last 5 seasons, Keuchel has been the Astro’s homegrown ace. From his debut in 2012, Keuchel has slowly cemented himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game. Save for a rocky 2016 and some early growing pains, Keuchel has been nothing but solid.

Anchored by Keuchel and Justin Verlander, acquired from the Tigers in August of 2017, the Houston Astros have been one of baseball’s best teams for the past 3 seasons. But Keuchel is now a free agent and many Twins fans are hoping that Minnesota eventually signs him.

However, if Minnesota elected to sign Keuchel, don’t expect the same results from Keuchel that Astros fans have grown accustomed to seeing from him. In fact, if Minnesota signed him, it is possible that Twins fans would see the Nolasco Fiasco 2.0.

In 2013, the season before the Twins signed him, Nolasco’s ERA was 3.70. In 2018, Keuchel had a 3.74 ERA. Now compare that to 2017, when Keuchel had an ERA of 2.90, and you’ll see a jump of +0.84.

This is not the only concerning statistic. Last season, Keuchel had a WHIP of 1.31. While it is not a critical tell-all stat, WHIP is helpful in determining a pitcher’s general number of base runners allowed in a given inning. Keuchel’s WHIP of 1.3 is far above his teammate Justin Verlander’s league-leading WHIP of 0.9.

Last season, Dallas Keuchel gave up a league-leading 211 hits. Even more alarming is his league-leading 874 batters faced, while only pitching 204.2 innings. If you do some simple math, that’s about 4.3 batters per inning. Think about that. That’s over 1 batter higher than the minimum every single inning, which accounts for his WHIP of 1.3.

Besides all of these influential, albeit alarming, statistics, there is another reason to move on from Dallas Keuchel. This current front office, which has more than proven its competency with its savvy moves this season, hasn’t even given fans a whiff of the notion that it is looking at signing Keuchel. This speaks volumes in and of itself.

The duo of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken this ballclub from one of baseball’s worst to one of the best in the league in three short seasons. Their moves have positioned the ballclub to compete deep into the postseason this year and hopefully for years to come. There comes a time when fans need to trust their respective front offices and believe that they know that they are doing. For Twins fans, that time is now.

Someone will sign Dallas Keuchel, and soon. After June 6th, when the draft ends and teams will no longer lose a draft pick when they sign Keuchel, there will likely be a bidding war for his services. Perhaps Keuchel will return to his Cy Young form and I will have to eat crow. But if I were betting man, Keuchel will be at best just eh this season. I think so, and Twins fans should think so too.