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The other guy always looks better than your own

mikelink45

Entry posted by mikelink45 ·

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blog-0967612001523723313.jpgThe other guy is always better than what you have – right? Well that is the thought that dominates the off-season and so we are sad that we did not sign Yu Darvish (actually if you saw my posts you know I did not want him). Since we had an article looking at the first ten days and projecting the season I thought it might be good to see what we missed.

 

Yu Darvish just had a memorable melt down over a balk, but even more exciting are his statistics during a stretch that was supposed to be the easy part of the cubs schedule. His line – 0 – 1, 6.00 ERA for three starts, 1.533 WHIP and a -0.1 WAR (yes minus).

 

Then there was the idea of the big trade for Chris Archer – who has a -0.3 WAR, a 5.94 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP, but he is 1 – 0! And all we had to do was give up on Kepler and some other young assets.

 

Of course we did sign some assets because they are better than our minor league prospects – Logan Morrison and his -0.5 WAR is hitting .088, slugging .118 with an OPS of 3.23 and it was worth giving up Chargois and other relief prospects to get Zach Duke with a -0.4 WAR 11.25 ERA and 2.25 Whip and Fernando Rodney with a 0.0 WAR 3.86 ERA, and 1.929 WHIP.

 

The last piece to the puzzle was Lance Lynn who has 0.1 WAR with a 5.00 ERA and 1.778 Whip so we did not have to use Mejia, Romero, or Gonsalves.

 

To be fair that is only 4 of 6 players we picked up and Addison Reed 0.5 WAR, 1.13 ERA is the real thing in the bullpen and Odorizzi has 0.8 WAR and 2.20 ERA and 1.347 WHIP. I guess .333 is a good average in baseball, not sure that applies to signing players.

 

As a person who always prefers the young players I think I would have liked to see Odorizzi and Reed with the other money going to sign Dozier and extend our young players. I would have liked one of our young players instead of Lynn, Duke, and Rodney and maybe kept Chargois who has 0.2 WAR and a 0.00 Era in 5 games and I just might have left Vargas at DH until one of our prospects steps up.

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Rosterman

I think the off-season went fine. Lynn is a one-year deal. With Santana still recovering, he is a fine asset to have. The Twins attempted to bolster the bullpen. None of the guys sent to Rochester were cut because they were too good to be in the minors, for now.

 

The Twins saw a solution in Morrison, going thru a bad spell, and didn't trust Vargas. Would the Twins be better off with Vargas at DH/ We won't ever know. But they took a chance on someone who has experience against major league pitching. Maybe it is just a weather issue.

 

The season is still young.

 

I'm more worried, still, about Molitor and line-up construction, and usage of the bullpen as a whole.

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mikelink45

 

I think the off-season went fine. Lynn is a one-year deal. With Santana still recovering, he is a fine asset to have. The Twins attempted to bolster the bullpen. None of the guys sent to Rochester were cut because they were too good to be in the minors, for now.

 

The Twins saw a solution in Morrison, going thru a bad spell, and didn't trust Vargas. Would the Twins be better off with Vargas at DH/ We won't ever know. But they took a chance on someone who has experience against major league pitching. Maybe it is just a weather issue.

 

The season is still young.

 

I'm more worried, still, about Molitor and line-up construction, and usage of the bullpen as a whole.

I have no disagreement with what you said, but I had to follow up on the projection that was on the main page based on 10 games because if we have the right to project positive on 10 games we also have the ability to see the bad. 

 

The part that is consistent with everything I have written on the pages is that I am much happier when we promote from within unless the outside choice is far better than what we already have - I put Reed in this category and maybe Odorizzi. 

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slash129

Early season cherry-picking ... how nice.

 

You forgot to mention "our own" Hildenberger and Polanco.  It's not just "the other guy's" guys that have done little to help.

 

All available options for fielding a competitive team need to be utilized.  If you just want to promote the young guys early, then you will get the 2000 Twins.  I think they won about 70 games.

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Kelly Vance

Getting Odorizzi and Lynn, instead of Yu, lessens the risk of having nothing to show for it if an injury benches the newly acquired  starter. IOW, it is, theoretically at least, half as likely that both starters get hurt than if we added just Yu. Other than that, it is far too early to tell about the acquisitions, but Morrison will likely bounce back and Fernando looks to still have some gas left in the tank. If he fails, Reed is a great addition. 

 

The other side is always greener does not just apply to humans though. It is why cows stick their necks through the wire fence to eat the longer unmowed (and ungrazed) grass in the ditch. Sometimes, the grass IS greener on the other side of the fence. 

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mikelink45

 

Early season cherry-picking ... how nice.

 

You forgot to mention "our own" Hildenberger and Polanco.  It's not just "the other guy's" guys that have done little to help.

 

All available options for fielding a competitive team need to be utilized.  If you just want to promote the young guys early, then you will get the 2000 Twins.  I think they won about 70 games.

I only did this because I was motivated by the essay after 10 games that was projecting our season success.  I have watched too many years to really believe that the first month predicts anything.  It just gives us something to do while the snow falls.

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mikelink45

 

Getting Odorizzi and Lynn, instead of Yu, lessens the risk of having nothing to show for it if an injury benches the newly acquired  starter. IOW, it is, theoretically at least, half as likely that both starters get hurt than if we added just Yu. Other than that, it is far too early to tell about the acquisitions, but Morrison will likely bounce back and Fernando looks to still have some gas left in the tank. If he fails, Reed is a great addition. 

 

The other side is always greener does not just apply to humans though. It is why cows stick their necks through the wire fence to eat the longer unmowed (and ungrazed) grass in the ditch. Sometimes, the grass IS greener on the other side of the fence. 

 

I will try to keep my neck from sticking through the fence wires while constantly promoting our own farm system over the guys in someone else's pasture. 

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Dantes929

 

I will try to keep my neck from sticking through the fence wires while constantly promoting our own farm system over the guys in someone else's pasture. 

At least theoretically I like the idea of simply retaining every player you draft similar to the old days.    Trade where you can and don't sign any free agents and don't lose any free agents instead of participating in the musical chairs that is free agency where we usually come out on the short side.   

I loved the Reed and Odorizzi signings.   I liked the Morrison signing, did not like losing Burdi or Chargois and did not like getting Rodney.    I approved of Lynn but wanted Alex Cobb who currently sports a 17.18 ERA.   

None of this analysis is meaningful because of SSS.    Hicks had a whole season of failure before making that trade looked lousy.   I have no particular regrets about Darvish because I had no particular expectations of us ever signing him.

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h2oface

Odorizzi's 10 walks in just over 16 innings is flying under the radar. It hasn't bit him/us too hard yet, but that is just luck.

 

Luke Bard has now pitched in 5 games for the Angels, 8.1 innings, given up only 1 run (earned) and 4 hits, 9 Ks and 5 BBs, with an ERA and WHIP of 1.08. Average against is .138. He was also not protected to leave roster space and selected in the Rule 5 draft. His SSS line (in warm weather) looks a lot like Reed's so far this year, except for 2 more walks. I was hoping he wouldn't make the roster, and we would get him back.... but that is looking bleak so far.

 

Hard to say if Chargois being lost on waivers was for Morrison, or to have space to select Kinley in the same rule 5 draft. He did get clipped on Friday, coming in in the top of 8th inning with the Dodgers behind Arizona 7-5, and gave up a solo shot to light hitting and oft injured shortstop Nick Ahmed. That made the game 8-5. The Dodgers scored 2 in the bottom of the 8th to make it 8-7, and that homer proved to be the winning run. Chargois has pitched in 6 games for the Dodgers, 4.2 innings, given up one run (earned, a solo home run) and 4 hits, 5 Ks and 1 BB, with and ERA of .193 and a WHIP of 1.07. Average against is .235. Not sure of his WAR now.

 

I do think it was a bad move to let them both get away. 

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old nurse

 

Odorizzi's 10 walks in just over 16 innings is flying under the radar. It hasn't bit him/us too hard yet, but that is just luck.

 

Luke Bard has now pitched in 5 games for the Angels, 8.1 innings, given up only 1 run (earned) and 4 hits, 9 Ks and 5 BBs, with an ERA and WHIP of 1.08. Average against is .138. He was also not protected to leave roster space and selected in the Rule 5 draft. His SSS line (in warm weather) looks a lot like Reed's so far this year, except for 2 more walks. I was hoping he wouldn't make the roster, and we would get him back.... but that is looking bleak so far.

 

Hard to say if Chargois being lost on waivers was for Morrison, or to have space to select Kinley in the same rule 5 draft. He did get clipped on Friday, coming in in the top of 8th inning with the Dodgers behind Arizona 7-5, and gave up a solo shot to light hitting and oft injured shortstop Nick Ahmed. That made the game 8-5. The Dodgers scored 2 in the bottom of the 8th to make it 8-7, and that homer proved to be the winning run. Chargois has pitched in 6 games for the Dodgers, 4.2 innings, given up one run (earned, a solo home run) and 4 hits, 5 Ks and 1 BB, with and ERA of .193 and a WHIP of 1.07. Average against is .235. Not sure of his WAR now.

 

I do think it was a bad move to let them both get away. 

Rule v draft was in December. Chagois was designated in February. One has nothing to do with the other.   Morrison was signed a week after Chargois. Cause and effect would be sketchy at best. There would be no certainty of signing anyone

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h2oface

Bard just came in to relieve Otani to start the third after he was pulled after 2 and 66 pitches and behind 3-0, and the honeymoon is over. 4 hits and a HBP, 3 of the hits homers, and he gave up 5 earned in his inning. ERA now up to 5.79. 

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mikelink45

 

Bard just came in to relieve Otani to start the third after he was pulled after 2 and 66 pitches and behind 3-0, and the honeymoon is over. 4 hits and a HBP, 3 of the hits homers, and he gave up 5 earned in his inning. ERA now up to 5.79. 

Thank you.  I was feeling guilty that I opposed signing Ohtani all winter.  This gives me a little relief.

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