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30 and 30 Prospects Part 2: The Players

Shane Wahl

Entry posted by Shane Wahl ·

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Here is the second half of the new--and I think improved--version of my prospect list. I am listing 25 players plus five honorable mentions. A brief about how the system has really improved: I have been ranking the prospects in the system since 2011 and always paid careful attention to inadequacies at certain positions and even handedness. It is finally the year to announce that the Twins are deep in absolutely everything. But, without further ado:

 

1. Byron Buxton: CF, 12-18-93

2015 start: Chattanooga. It's time for the top prospect to be healthy and dominate. Easy call for a September call-up at the latest.

 

2. Miguel Sano: 3B, 5-3-93

2015 start: Chattanooga. Everything should be aligned for a trip to Minnesota by July.

 

3. Jorge Polanco: SS/2B, 7-5-93

2015 start: Chattanooga. He will be up at some point in 2015 for the Twins. There are decisions that must be made.

 

4. Eddie Rosario: OF/2B, 9-28-91

2015 start: Chattanooga. Will show up with the Twins by September at the latest. This Chattanooga team is going to be quite interesting to start the season!

 

5. Nick Gordon: SS, 10-24-95

2015 start: Cedar Rapids. It's time to see the real deal. The Twins need to push him to full season ball.

 

6. Max Kepler: OF/1B, 2-10-93

2015: Chattanooga. No reason to move him down much on the list. Health is the only real concern, though there are still many things to work out before he is considered a good call-up.

 

7. Adam Walker: RF, 10-18-91

2015 start: Chattanooga. With Kepler, not ready or the majors yet at all. Power potential is significant.

 

8. Amaurys Minier: OF/1B, 1-30-96

2015 start: Elizabethon. He's ready to show off the power potential. The Twins will move slow here, but he could be in AA in two years.

 

9. Travis Harrison: LF/1B, 10-17-92

2015 start: Chattanooga. I have to think he will be primarily a 1B/DH with extra LF duties to keep that option open.

 

10. Levi Michael: SS/2B, 2-9-91

2015 start: Chattanooga. Michael has arrived, finally, and will be filling out the bottom of a potent Chattanooga lineup.

 

11. Lewis Diaz: 1B, 11-19-96

2015 start: GCL. Diaz is an offensive powerhouse. He will light up the GCL.

 

12. Stuart Turner: C, 12-27-91

2015 start: Chattanooga. 2016 Twins roster threat.

 

13. Max Murphy: OF, 11-17-92

2015 start: Cedar Rapids to begin, but could move to Fort Myers.

 

14. Niko Goodrum: SS/3B, 2-28-92

2015 start: Fort Myers for a bit. There is no room for him up in Chattanooga anyway. He needs to get everything together at the plate this year.

 

15. Mitch Garver: C, 1-15-91

2015 start: Fort Myers, but will move up to Chattanooga at some point.

 

16. Aderlin Mejia: IF, 5-12-92

2015 start: Chattanooga as a utility infielder. But he is strong in that role and should start after some of the top prospects move up.

 

17. Engelb Vielma: SS, 6-22-94

2015 start: Fort Myers. He is someone to really watch. If he can continue to develop offensively, he will make it to the big leagues without a doubt.

 

18. Tanner English: CF, 3-11-93

2015 start: Cedar Rapids. Pretty impressive all-around.

 

19. Zach Larson: OF, 10-8-93

2015 start: Cedar Rapids, but will likely move to Fort Myers as part of a wave of promotions in mid-season.

 

20. Dalton Hicks: 1B, 4-2-90

2015 start: Chattanooga, but the roster is pretty full there. He could move back and forth between Chattanooga and Rochester during the year.

 

21. Chad Christensen: Utility, 10-6-90

2015 start: Fort Myers, but will move to Chattanooga as a part of mid-season promotions.

 

22. Danny Ortiz: OF, 1-5-90

2015 start: Rochester. One of the first guys to be promoted to the Twins in case of injury this year.

 

23. Tyler Kuresa: 1B, 11-17-92

2015 start: Cedar Rapids. Could explode this year.

 

24. James Beresford: IF, 1-19-89

2015 start: Rochester. He will be among the first called up for the Twins in case of injury.

 

25. JD Williams: OF, 11-20-90

2015 start: Fort Myers, though he should move up to Chattanooga after some promotions. He still has excellent speed and can be a very good hitter.

 

Honorable mention: Jorge Fernandez (C, 20), Alex Swim (C, 23), Rainis Silva (C, 18), Zach Granite (CF, 22), Trey Vavra (1B/OF, 23)

 

Others who could have made the list include: Jack Barrie, Jason Kanzler, Pat Kelly, Brian Navarreto, and Rafael Valera.

 

What is most interesting about this is just how dominant AA Chattanooga should be. The breakdown goes like this:

 

Rochester will have a bunch of guys like Reynaldo Rodriguez, Nate Hanson, Chris Herrmann, Eric Fryer, and Dan Rohlfing filling out much of its lineup. James Beresford and Danny Ortiz will be in the top half of that lineup and will be interesting to watch. Rochester is most likely to benefit from a movement from Chattanooga of some top prospects by June or July. If I was the decision maker, I would probably favor a lineup of Beresford (SS)-Herrmann ©-Ortiz (LF)-Rodriguez (DH)-Hanson (1B)-Rohlfing (RF)-Robinson (CF)-Farris (2B)-Bernier (3B).

 

Chattanooga will be full of top prospects. The OF should start Rosario, Buxton, and Walker. The infield will start with Sano, Polanco, Michael, and Hicks. Stuart Turner will be the main catcher (with Matthew Koch too). There will be a rotation between the OF, 1B, and DH that will get Max Kepler in the vast majority of games, but obviously there is Travis Harrison too. Aderlin Mejia will add utility depth. The lineup there might be something like: Buxton (CF)-Polanco (SS)-Sano (3B)-Walker (RF)-Rosario (LF)-Kepler (1B)-Harrison (DH)-Turner ©-Michael (2B).

 

Fort Myers will feature an infield of Goodrum and Vielma on the left side. Garver will be catching and JD Williams will be in the outfield. Alex Swim will catch and get some OF time as well. Kanzler will be all over the OF as well.

 

Cedar Rapids will be stocked. The OF will have Murphy, English, Larson, and Granite. Gordon, Trey Vavra, and Kuresa will be in the infield, as will Pat Kelly. Jorge Fernandez will be catching.

 

Elizabethon will have Minier, Navaretto, and Valera, but will also be adding some top 2015 draft talent.

 

Finally, the GCL Twins will have Diaz and Barrie, which could be explosive. Rainis Silva will be catching and this team will also be getting 2015 draftees and other players from the DSL.

 

In sum, the Twins position player prospect situation is now a lot different than was pre-2014. The system is now top-heavy for the first time in ages (probably the Mauer-Morneau-Cuddyer days). There is both star potential and depth in AA, with mainly only star potential at the lower levels (for now).

 

This concludes the two-part look at Twins prospects. I think there are a lot of names here to follow and readers can try to combine the two lists into one super one if they so desire!

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Dr. Evil

I like t that you lean towards the Twins bumping their prospects forward and challenging them a little bit more aggressively than they usually seem to do. Perfection is not necessarily a prerequisite for moving them up level. IMHO

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jokin

Finally, we can foresee a Twins system soon to be reminiscent of Boston, where the Red Sox have multiple major-league-ready options  at the ready at AAA Pawtucket or in AA; with all of the push of talent from underneath, much of the Twins AAAA "filler" will soon have no spots to fill.

 

Shane, would you care to forecast how many from this year's group of position prospects "graduate" for good going into 2016.  Even if the top 4 all take care of business in 2015, will they all be assured of starting spots with the big club in April 2016?

 

What's most impressive is even if the top 4 all make it, your remaining list remains impressive.  Perhaps no longer in the Top 3-5 farm systems in baseball, but still chock full of potential major league starters.

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Shane Wahl

Sano and Rosario, to me, are the only real locks to do that. Polanco and Buxton might need to get some time in 2016 in AAA (even after appearing in September this year). If the latter two only get September looks, then I think they will start 2016 in AAA. Injuries to Hicks (Buxton) and either Santana or Dozier (Polanco) would change all of that. 

 

Strong seasons from Kepler, Michael, and Walker would mean interesting things for 2016 calls up. And in terms of system rankings, the Twins are still going to have the star power at the top for a few years yet (Minier, Diaz, and Gordon; Thorpe, Stewart, and Gonsalves) but perhaps not the depth. I haven't made much attention to other teams graduations this year, but I would think that the time is coming soon where Boston runs a little dry so that it's just the Astros and Cubs still with super strong systems. 

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Thrylos

That Chattannoga OF/1B/DH seems very congested:

Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Walker, Harrisson, DJ Hicks plus one of the 3 catchers vying for 5 spots which means that one has to sit on a daily basis...

 

My guess:  Rosario as the starting CF in Rochester pushing Farris to UT

 

Hard to argue with your list, but I would include Lewin Diaz and Jorge Fernandez for sure.   Chistensen, Williams, Beresford, Vavra are not prospects.  Williams was at some point, but...

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Shane Wahl

I have Diaz at 11 here. I kept Jorge Fernandez off as a breakout player in my HMs. Because . . . well no real reason. I still like those four guys you mention at the end. At a certain point here I think one needs to just have guys who can play in the majors and that is why Beresford remains. I have a special spot for Williams, obviously. He can hit like crazy, but is so up and down. I am thinking 2015 is an up year for him and he moves up to AA after the AA-AAA or MLB promotions happen.

 

With regard to Chattanooga, yes, it is loaded and congested. But keep in mind that the Twins clearly value AA time over AAA time. I don't see Rosario doing anything other than Chattanooga right now. Anyway, I do think that Dalton Hicks and Aderlin Mejia can be initial bench players, but worked in via a smart rotation of players. I am a fan of a rotation of players at all levels, actually. Off days are helpful. I wish there could be a study of this (for instance, Cal Ripken Jr. was great, but dear lord and a half if he only had some rest in there . . . ). 

 

Hicks and Mejia will get there time in the lineup. I guess Michael Gonzales would be on this team as well, especially since the Twins bothered with Brock Peterson (really?). I always liked Gonzales and maybe they should just send him to AAA. The guy still has a career .800 OPS in 2155 plate appearances. The signing of Brock Peterson has to just make him sick. I don't understand such a signing. Give your guys some hope and stop ramming players into AAA to bury marginal prospects out of the damn margins completely. I just despise that kind of management. 

 

Wow. Anyway, Diaz could fly up the list. I do think that one year from now Minier and Diaz are going to be with Gordon, Stewart, Thorpe, and Gonsalves near the top of the prospect list for the Twins in nationwide lists. Those two will keep the Twins up at the top of those rankings for awhile. 

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